Candidate Ogan will support the opposition in Turkey only if no concessions are granted to Kurds
Sinan Ogan, a nationalist presidential candidate who finished third in Sunday’s general election in Turkey, said he could only support the main opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in the runoff if he agreed not to offer concessions to the Kurds and their political representatives.
In Sunday’s preliminary election results, Ogan obtained around 5.2%, emerging as a potential “kingmaker” ahead of the May 28 runoff.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan led with 49.5% of the vote, and Kilicdaroglu, the opposition leader who obtained around 45%, will participate in the second round.
As none of the candidates achieved the 50% required to assume the presidency directly, after 100% of the ballot boxes were opened, according to Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council, the election will go to a second round.
A former academic, Ogan participated in the first round of the presidential election as a candidate of ATA, an alliance of Turkish ultra-nationalist parties led by the Victory Party, known for its anti-immigrant stance.
“We will consult with our voter base for our decision in the runoff. But we already made it clear that fighting terrorism and sending refugees back are our red lines,” Ogan told Reuters in an interview on Monday.
In addition, Ogan said his goal was to remove two mainly Kurdish parties from Turkey’s “political equation” and strengthen Turkish nationalists and secularists. “And the election results showed that we succeeded in this,” he noted.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which decided not to field any presidential candidates, has backed Kilicdaroglu in the presidential election, while the Kurdish-Islamist Huda-Par is backing Erdogan.
In the parliamentary elections, the pro-Kurdish alliance won 66 seats. According to preliminary results, the seats were mostly won in the predominantly Kurdish provinces of the southeast, falling far behind the 321 of President Erdogan’s party and 213 of the opposition.
The figure marks a drop in the seats won by the HDP, the country’s third-largest political force.
In June 2015, they had won 80 seats after winning 13% of the vote, while in June 2018, they were left with 67 seats after achieving 11.7% of the vote.
Ogan also noted that he had not met with Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu since Sunday’s vote but would be open to negotiation “based on their principles.”
“We could sign a protocol with National Alliance (to back Kilicdaroglu) to clarify that they will not give any concessions to the HDP. It is as simple as that,” he said.
Finally, Ogan remarked that Sunday’s election results showed that Turkey’s main opposition has failed to garner enough public support despite the massive earthquakes that hit southeastern Turkey in February and the Turkish economic crisis. “Voters sent a message that they don’t trust the opposition enough.”
In this regard, Wolfango Piccoli of consulting and advisory firm Teneo said, “Erdogan now has a clear psychological advantage against the opposition. He will probably double down on his national security-focused narratives in the next two weeks.”
Most analysts believe Kilicdaroglu and his opposition alliance will have difficulty halting Erdogan’s momentum ahead of the May 28 runoff.
Emre Peker of the Eurasia Group consultancy estimated the probability of an Erdogan victory at 80%.
“The results show that Erdogan and his allies successfully bolstered the incumbent’s support with strong messages on terrorism, security, and family values, even as the economy continued to top voters’ concerns,” Peker added.
Political risk consultant Anthony Skinner said the result underscored the difficulty gauging public opinion in a sharply polarized nation of 85 million people.
“Many pre-election public opinion poll results did not reflect Erdogan’s resourcefulness and the degree of support he still enjoys in the country,” he said.
“It shows how careful one should be when looking at public opinion polls before elections.”
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