Brazil’s Rio Confirms Ruas as Governor With 50.88%
POLITICS · BRAZIL
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy. Rio de Janeiro state is home to Petrobras, the oil company whose shares trade in New York.
- —Why it matters Jair Bolsonaro’s conservative Liberal Party (PL) takes Brazil’s main oil state without a runoff, two weeks before the presidential vote.
- —Why now The top electoral court voided 274,411 votes for Anthony Garotinho on Thursday 8 October, forcing a new tally.
- —What happened Rio’s electoral court (TRE-RJ) retallied the votes on Saturday 10 October. Douglas Ruas finished with 50.88% of valid votes.
- —The numbers Ruas 4,271,199 votes, Eduardo Paes 3,706,984 (44.16%). Ruas cleared the majority by about 73,900 votes.
- —What it means for you Rio’s governor runs its police. Ruas promises a tougher security plan, which visitors and investors will watch closely.
- —Still open Formal proclamation is set for Thursday 15 October, 3 p.m., once a short window for challenges closes.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Douglas Ruas a 99% chance of being Rio’s governor and Flávio Bolsonaro 88% for president (11 October, 2:08 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 88% and Kalshi at 88% (Lula: 12% and 13%), as of 11 October, 2:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Rio de Janeiro’s electoral court confirmed on Saturday 10 October that Douglas Ruas won the state governorship outright, with 50.88% of valid votes. The new tally followed a ruling that voided every vote cast for a disqualified rival, so Rio will not hold a governor runoff on 25 October. For US readers, the result hands Brazil’s main oil-producing state, and the home of Petrobras, to the conservative party of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Ruas, 37, belongs to the Liberal Party (PL), Brazil’s main conservative party. Its presidential candidate, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) in the national runoff on Sunday 25 October.
This is a follow-up to our report Brazil Court Hands Rio to Bolsonaro’s Party in 5-2 Vote. Saturday’s session turned that court ruling into an official count.
How the Retally Worked
The session took place at the TRE-RJ headquarters in Rio. It was led by the court’s president, Judge Cláudio de Mello Tavares, with all seven members present, g1 reported. State prosecutors, the bar association and party representatives attended.
“The most voted candidate for governor of the State of Rio de Janeiro was Douglas Ruas, reaching more than half of the valid votes, enough to win in the first round,” Tavares said, according to Agência Brasil, the state news agency, and g1.
He stressed that nobody voted again and no ballots were recounted. “There is no new vote. The votes are exactly the same ones that Rio’s voters cast on 4 October. What changes is the basis of calculation,” he said.
The arithmetic is simple. In the first count on Sunday 4 October, Ruas had 4,271,199 votes, or 49.27% of valid votes. Former governor Anthony Garotinho of the Republicanos party had 274,411 votes, counted provisionally while his appeal was pending.
Once those votes left the total, Ruas rose to 50.88%. Eduardo Paes, a former mayor of Rio city who ran for the centrist Social Democratic Party (PSD), moved from 42.76% to 44.16%. The gap between the two stayed at 564,215 votes.
Why Garotinho’s Votes Were Voided
The TRE-RJ had rejected Garotinho’s candidacy over a conviction for administrative misconduct. He stayed on the ballot while he appealed to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil’s top election court.
On Monday 5 October, the day after the vote, he tried to withdraw that appeal. The TSE refused, saying a withdrawal after election day could interfere with the result. On Thursday 8 October it upheld the rejection and voided his votes by five to two.
Paes’s coalition asked the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to suspend that ruling. Justice Cristiano Zanin refused on procedural grounds, noting that no formal appeal had yet been filed, g1 reported. He did not rule on the merits.
Paes then gave up. “Unfortunately, the courts decided there will be no second round, against the sovereign will of the voters. And a court decision is something we respect,” he wrote on social media.
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Who Douglas Ruas Is
Ruas is a career civil police officer and lawyer from São Gonçalo, in greater Rio. He won a state assembly seat in 2022 with 175,977 votes, the second-highest total that year, according to g1.
He later served as state secretary for cities under former governor Cláudio Castro. He returned to the assembly in March 2026 and became its speaker in April. g1 says he will be the state’s youngest governor since 1959.
On Saturday he wrote that “the mission is only beginning” and promised a “safer, more inclusive Rio full of opportunities,” O Globo reported. His running mate, Fernanda Louback, becomes vice-governor-elect.
His plan puts security first. A programme called Escudo Fluminense would use facial recognition, licence-plate readers, drones and cargo scanners. He also promises new prisons and a push to retake areas held by drug factions and militias.
What It Means for You
For investors in Brazilian ADRs, a settled Rio race removes one source of noise before the presidential runoff. Rio’s offshore fields, Petrobras and much of Brazil’s oil service industry sit in this state.
For visitors, the governor commands the state’s military and civil police. A harder line on armed groups could mean more large police operations in the city’s poorer districts, at least at first. The stabiliser is time: the new government only takes office in January, and its plans still need a state budget.
Rio still votes for president on 25 October. The court has suspended campaign advertising for the governor’s race until the result is proclaimed. Our guide Brazil Runoff Day on 25 October for Foreign Visitors covers what changes on the day.
What Is Not Known
The result becomes final only after the full court proclaims it. The recalculated result stays public for three days, followed by two days for challenges by parties and coalitions, Tavares said. No challenge had been reported by early Sunday.
It is not known whether the TSE ruling will face a later appeal on the merits. Paes says he will not pursue one.
State prosecutors (MPRJ) opened a criminal inquiry on Wednesday 15 July into the rapid growth of two companies in which Ruas is a partner, g1 reported. The suspicions include embezzlement and money laundering. The case is under seal, no charge has been filed, and Ruas denies wrongdoing. He calls it an attack by “old politics” that will be shelved.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket bets give Douglas Ruas a 99% chance of being Rio’s next governor and Paes under 1% (11 October, 2:08 a.m. ET). About US$779,000 has been traded on that market, but only some US$330 changed hands in the past day. The price rose about half a point.
On the presidential race, Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 88% and Lula 11.5%, with more than US$180 million traded.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 87.9% · Lula 11.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 88% · Lula 13%
As of 11 October, 2:20 am ET (07:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Rio de Janeiro hold a governor runoff on 25 October?
No. After the TRE-RJ retally on 10 October, Douglas Ruas has 50.88% of valid votes, enough to win in the first round. Rio voters still choose a president that day.
Were the votes counted again?
No. The court recalculated the percentages after removing 274,411 voided votes for Anthony Garotinho. No ballots were recounted and no new vote was held.
When is Douglas Ruas formally proclaimed governor?
The TRE-RJ has scheduled the proclamation for Thursday 15 October at 3 p.m., once the window for challenges has closed.
Sources: TRE-RJ, 10 October 2026; Agência Brasil, 10 October 2026; g1, 10 October 2026; g1 profile, 10 October 2026; O Globo, 10 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, 10 October 2026; Polymarket market data, 11 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error