Brazil Poll Gives Flávio Bolsonaro 52.8%, Lula 47.2%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country and economy, chooses its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula.
- —What happened A Brazil poll by AtlasIntel, released on Friday 9 October, gives Flávio 52.8% of valid votes and Lula 47.2%.
- —The swing AtlasIntel’s last round before the first vote, with interviews ending on Friday 2 October, had Lula ahead by 0.2 points.
- —The survey AtlasIntel interviewed 5,026 voters online from 3 to 8 October, with a margin of error of one percentage point.
- —The other polls Three polls published since the first round, including this one, put Flávio ahead, while a fourth, Vox Brasil, shows Lula narrowly in front.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 88.4% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (10 October, 3:22 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 88% and Kalshi at 88% (Lula: 12% and 12%), as of 10 October, 3:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
A new Brazil poll released on Friday 9 October puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva before the 25 October runoff. The AtlasIntel survey gives Flávio, the conservative eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, 52.8% of valid votes to 47.2%.
For Americans, the race decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy and how Brazil deals with Washington and Beijing. Investors in Brazilian stocks and the real follow each Brazil poll for signs of a change of government.
What the AtlasIntel Poll Shows
Counting all answers, Flávio has 51.1% and Lula 45.7%, a gap of 5.4 points, according to AtlasIntel’s published report. Another 3.2% said they would vote blank, spoil the ballot or had not decided.
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, the way Brazil’s electoral court counts the result. On that basis, the gap in this Brazil poll is 5.6 points.
The movement since AtlasIntel’s previous round is large. That round, with interviews ending on Friday 2 October, had Lula at 47.6% and Flávio at 47.4%.
Since then Flávio has gained 3.7 points and Lula has lost 1.9, the financial news site InfoMoney reported. The shift followed the first round on Sunday 4 October, in which Flávio finished first.
Flávio, a senator for Rio de Janeiro, runs for the conservative Liberal Party (PL), his father’s party. Lula, 80, of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), which he co-founded, is seeking a fourth term.
How the Poll Was Done
AtlasIntel, a polling firm that recruits respondents online at random, interviewed 5,026 voters across Brazil from Saturday 3 to Thursday 8 October. The results carry a margin of error of one percentage point either way, at a 95% confidence level.
The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil’s election authority, under number BR-03663/2026. Brazilian law requires every published election poll to be registered there first.
AtlasIntel publishes the survey jointly with Bloomberg, the US financial news group. It cost R$75,000 (about US$15,000), paid from the pollster’s own funds, according to the news site Poder360.
Conversions here use about 5.01 reais to the US dollar on 10 October 2026.
Fieldwork began on the day before the first-round vote, Poder360 noted. The other recent surveys started only after the vote.
Who Voters Trust on Crime and the Economy
The Brazil poll also asked which candidate voters trust more on key issues. Flávio leads on crime and drug trafficking by 53% to 43%, and on fiscal balance and spending control by 52% to 42%.
On the economy and inflation he leads by 52% to 45%, AtlasIntel’s figures show, as InfoMoney also reported. Lula ties him on poverty and inequality at 48% each, and on the environment at 47% each.
On foreign policy, the area closest to relations with Washington, Flávio leads by only 49% to 47%. The split is the same on promoting democracy and on health.
The survey also measured Lula’s standing as president. In it, 44.7% approve of his performance and 53.4% disapprove, while 51.9% rate his government bad or terrible.
How It Compares With Other Polls
AtlasIntel’s figures are close to two other polls published since the first round. Datafolha, the polling arm of the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper group, gave Flávio 52% of valid votes and Lula 48% on Thursday 8 October.
PoderData/Aya, a poll released by Poder360 on the same day, gave Flávio 53% and Lula 47%. Both surveys are registered with the electoral court, with margins of error of 2 and 1.8 points.
One Brazil poll disagrees. Vox Brasil, with 2,100 interviews, shows Lula at 44.2% and Flávio at 42.7% of all answers, according to Poder360.
The official count gives the polls context. In the first round, Flávio received 56.1 million votes and Lula 53.8 million, according to the electoral court.
AtlasIntel’s own final round before that vote had shown Lula slightly ahead. The miss led to calls for an inquiry into pollsters, as The Rio Times reported.
Details of the Datafolha survey are in this earlier report.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 88.4% chance of winning the runoff. Lula stands at 11.5% (10 October, 3:22 a.m. ET), and Flávio’s price rose 2.2 points in 24 hours.
The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$179.6 million in total bets, with about US$1.3 million traded in the last day. These are bets, not polls.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 88.4% · Lula 11.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 88% · Lula 12%
As of 10 October, 3:20 am ET (08:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For US investors, three of the four latest polls and the betting markets point the same way, toward a Flávio win. A late Lula recovery would upset that view, so each new Brazil poll can move Brazilian stocks and the real.
Brazilians registered to vote in the United States and elsewhere abroad vote only for president, according to the electoral court. Brazil’s constitution makes voting compulsory for literate citizens aged 18 to 70.
More than 158.7 million voters are called to the polls on 25 October, according to the electoral court.
Campaign advertising on free radio and television restarted on Friday 9 October and runs until Friday 23 October. Each candidate gets equal airtime, so the race can still move.
What Is Not Known
It is not known how voters who backed other first-round candidates will split, or how many will vote at all. Turnout could decide whether a 5.6-point lead holds.
The Record network cancelled the runoff debate it had set for Sunday 11 October. The first one is now due on Thursday 15 October on the SBT network.
The Band TV network, with the São Paulo newspaper Estadão, holds one on Sunday 18 October and Globo on Friday 23 October, according to Poder360. Both candidates have said they intend to take part in runoff debates.
No Brazil poll is a forecast, and a lead can shrink in the 15 days left.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading Brazil’s presidential runoff?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads the latest Brazil poll by AtlasIntel, with 52.8% of valid votes to 47.2% for President Lula. Datafolha and PoderData/Aya show similar leads, while Vox Brasil shows Lula narrowly ahead.
When is Brazil’s runoff election?
The runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026, three weeks after the 4 October first round. Brazilians registered abroad, including in the United States, vote only for president.
How reliable is this survey?
This Brazil poll interviewed 5,026 voters, a large sample with a margin of error of one point. AtlasIntel’s last round before the first vote showed Lula ahead, yet Flávio finished first, so treat any single survey with caution.
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?
He is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He runs for the conservative Liberal Party (PL) and finished first in the 4 October first round.
Sources: AtlasIntel (poll report, TSE BR-03663/2026), 9 October 2026; Superior Electoral Court (TSE), 9 October 2026; Superior Electoral Court (TSE), 8 October 2026; InfoMoney, 9 October 2026; InfoMoney, 9 October 2026; Poder360, 9 October 2026; Poder360, 9 October 2026; Poder360, 9 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief