Brazil Runoff Poll Gives Bolsonaro Son 52%, Lula 48%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, picks its president on 25 October.
- —What happened Datafolha’s first runoff poll gives Flávio Bolsonaro 52%, Lula 48%.
- —The poll 2,520 voters interviewed 6–7 October; margin of error two points.
- —The baseline Flávio won round one 47.03% to 45.16%, the electoral court says.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio 85.8%, Kalshi 88% (9 October, 1:16 and 12:07 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 86% and Kalshi at 87% (Lula: 14% and 13%), as of 9 October, 2:40 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Still open Whether Lula can win over the 8% who reject neither candidate.
Datafolha’s first survey since the 4 October vote shows the conservative senator ahead, at the edge of the margin of error.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52% to 48%, the first Datafolha runoff poll shows. Datafolha, the polling institute of the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper group, released the survey on Thursday, 8 October.
It is Datafolha’s first poll since the 4 October first round, which Flávio won by 1.87 points. For US investors, it follows a gain of about 4% in Brazil’s real against the dollar since that vote.
The runoff is on Sunday, 25 October. Flávio, 45, is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro.
What the Datafolha Runoff Poll Shows
Datafolha interviewed 2,520 voters aged 16 and over in 153 municipalities on Tuesday 6 and Wednesday 7 October. Folha and TV Globo, Brazil’s largest television network, commissioned it.
The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which runs Brazil’s elections, as BR-02949/2026. The margin of error is two points either way, at 95% confidence.
The 52% to 48% split counts valid votes only, leaving out blank, spoiled and undecided answers, as the court does. Counting all answers, Flávio has 49% and Lula 45%, with 1% undecided and 5% blank or spoiled.
Folha calls it a technical tie at the very limit of the margin, but says the numbers point to a Flávio edge.
Datafolha’s final first-round poll, published on the eve of the vote, had Lula ahead with 45% of valid votes to Flávio’s 42%. The count reversed that order: Flávio took 47.03% and Lula 45.16%, the TSE’s final result shows.
Flávio received 56,104,503 votes to Lula’s 53,879,538, a gap of about 2.2 million.
Where Each Candidate Leads
Flávio leads 50% to 42% in the populous Southeast, home to 42% of voters, and 58% to 35% in the South. Evangelical Christians, 28% of the electorate, back him 69% to 25%.
Lula dominates the Northeast, 61% to 35%. Among the poorest 47% of voters, he leads 52% to 41%.
Of voters who backed the four main eliminated candidates, 46% now pick Flávio. Lula gets 32%, and 15% plan a blank or spoiled ballot.
Rejection runs high on both sides: 46% say they would not vote for Lula, and 43% say the same of Flávio. Only 8% reject neither, the group both campaigns now target.
Lula Says Polls Will Not Guide Him
“I don’t assess polls,” Lula told reporters at his campaign headquarters on Thursday, Folha reported. “The only way to win an election is by winning votes.”
Lula, who co-founded the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), is seeking a fourth term.
Flávio runs for the Liberal Party (PL), Brazil’s main conservative party, led by Valdemar Costa Neto. Since the first round he has pledged to suspend a tax reform due from 2027 and to propose ending re-election, Folha reported.
Since Brazil returned to democracy, no first-round runner-up has won the runoff, Folha notes. In 2022, Lula opened the runoff 53% to 47% in Datafolha’s valid votes and won by 1.8 points.
What It Means for You
The Datafolha runoff poll lands after a sharp move in Brazil’s currency. The central bank’s PTAX reference rate fell from 5.22 reais per US dollar on Friday 2 October to 5.01 on Thursday.
The dollar lost 4.6% against the real on Monday 5 October, the first trading day after the vote. It has since recovered part of that loss.
US trade policy is part of the race. Folha found Flávio led in 92 of the 100 municipalities most exposed to new US tariffs announced in July.
Lula’s campaign had tried to tie Flávio to those tariffs, citing his family’s closeness to Trump’s circle. Flávio asked US officials to delay the tariff decision until after the vote, arguing it would help Lula, Folha reported.
What Prediction Markets Say
Bettors on Polymarket gave Flávio an 85.8% chance of winning at 1:16 a.m. ET on Friday 9 October, and Lula 13.5%. About US$178 million has been bet on that market, US$2.6 million of it in the previous 24 hours.
Flávio’s price rose 1.8 points over that day. On Kalshi, which the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates, he stood at 88% and Lula at 13% at 12:07 a.m. ET.
Polymarket’s margin-of-victory market priced a Flávio win by 4 to 8 points at 45.5% at 12:07 a.m. ET. A win by under 4 points stood at 26%, and by 1:16 a.m. ET the two bets traded at 47% and 31%.
The four-point gap in the Datafolha runoff poll sits on the line between those two brackets. These are bets, not polls.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 85.8% · Lula 13.5% (US$178 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 13%
As of 9 October, 2:40 am ET (07:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Whether Flávio’s lead holds is open, since a poll is a snapshot, not a forecast.
Other surveys vary. PoderData/Aya, published by the news site Poder360, had Flávio ahead 53% to 47%.
A Vox Brasil poll reported by Poder360 showed Lula leading 44.2% to 42.7%. It is also unclear whether abstention, a record 21.08% in the first round according to Folha, will shrink.
What Comes Next
Free campaign airtime on television and radio starts on Friday, 9 October. The centrist Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), led by Baleia Rossi, holds an event on Tuesday, 13 October.
Most MDB state branches are due to declare support for Flávio there, Folha reported. The poll does not settle the race, which voters decide on Sunday, 25 October.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Datafolha runoff poll find?
Flávio Bolsonaro has 52% of valid votes and Lula 48%. Counting all answers, the split is 49% to 45%, with a two-point margin of error.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday, 25 October 2026. Flávio won the first round on 4 October with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%.
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?
He is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. He runs for the conservative Liberal Party (PL).
Why does the runoff matter to US investors?
Brazil’s currency has moved sharply since the first round, and US tariffs on Brazilian goods became a campaign issue. The winner sets Brazil’s tax, spending and trade policy for four years.
Are prediction markets the same as polls?
No. They are real-money bets whose prices act as implied probabilities, and they can move within minutes of the news.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), first-round presidential result; Datafolha, final first-round poll; Folha de S.Paulo, Datafolha runoff poll; Folha, rejection figures; Folha, poll analysis; Folha, Lula reaction; Folha, US tariff analysis; g1; Banco Central do Brasil, PTAX rates; Poder360 (all accessed 9 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief