ENERGY · BRAZIL
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil pumped 4.615 million barrels of oil a day in August, and state-controlled Petrobras dominates that output.
- —Why it matters Petrobras shares trade in New York, and rising Brazilian output adds barrels from outside OPEC to the world market.
- —Why now Preliminary regulator data for September reached the market on Wednesday 14 October, a day after a US$859 million settlement with partners.
- —What happened Petrobras produced 2.96 million barrels of oil a day in September 2026, up 1% from August, a level Brazilian media called a record.
- —The numbers Third-quarter oil output averaged 2.89 million barrels a day, up 6% on the quarter and above a 2.77 million consensus.
- —What it means for you Holders of Petrobras ADRs may see higher profit and cash estimates, while more Brazilian crude can ease pressure on global prices.
- —Still open The September figures are preliminary, and the regulator’s consolidated bulletin and the company’s own third-quarter report are still due.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 85% · Lula 14.5% (US$182 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 14%
As of 14 October, 3:20 pm ET (20:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Petrobras oil output reached 2.96 million barrels a day in September 2026, according to preliminary regulator data compiled by Bradesco BBI. The figure, up 1% from August, was described by Brazilian financial media on Wednesday 14 October as a new record.
For US readers, the number matters because Petrobras shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange as American depositary receipts. It also shows Brazil adding supply from outside the OPEC+ group of producers.
The data come from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP), the federal regulator that tracks output field by field. Bradesco BBI, the investment banking arm of Bradesco, one of Brazil’s largest private banks, compiled them in a note to clients.
Petrobras is Brazil’s state-controlled oil company and the operator of most of the country’s offshore fields. Its shares rose more than 1% on Wednesday morning in São Paulo, InfoMoney reported.
What Drove Petrobras Oil Output in September
The gain came mainly from two giant fields in the pre-salt layer, the deep reservoirs beneath a thick salt crust off Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. Output at Búzios rose 2% in the month, while Tupi grew 8%, according to the BBI note.
Tupi produced about 550,000 barrels a day in September, after running closer to 500,000 between May and August. Búzios stayed above one million barrels a day, the bank said.
Búzios is now Brazil’s largest producing oil field. The ANP’s August bulletin, published on Thursday 1 October, put its oil output at 1.172 million barrels a day.
The field has eight production units after the P-79 platform started up on 1 May 2026, three months ahead of plan. Petrobras said in July that the new unit lifts installed capacity at Búzios to about 1.33 million barrels a day.
Over the whole third quarter, Petrobras oil output averaged 2.89 million barrels a day, up 6% on the quarter, BBI calculates. That beat the market consensus of 2.77 million barrels a day cited by InfoMoney and Guia do Investidor.
How September Fits Brazil’s Oil Boom
Brazil as a whole produced 4.615 million barrels of oil a day in August, the ANP said. That was 2.6% more than in July and 18.4% more than in August 2025.
Total oil and gas output reached 6.002 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in August. Fields operated by Petrobras, alone or with partners, accounted for 87.55% of everything produced.
The company had already reported record own production of 3.34 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in the second quarter. That figure, released on 28 July, includes natural gas and was 14.1% higher than a year earlier.
Our Petrobras company profile tracks the group’s results and dividends over time. Our earlier report, Petrobras Hits Record Oil Output Ahead of Q2 Results, covered the second-quarter numbers.
Live Company IntelligencePetroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR — the full investor dossier
Wall Street view
Valuation & profitability
Price & risk
$10.6552-wk high
$25.80
Revenue trend · 6y
Ownership
Dividend
The US$859 Million Partner Settlement
On Tuesday 13 October, Petrobras said it had signed cost and volume equalisation agreements for the shared Berbigão and Sururu reservoirs in the Santos Basin. It will receive a net amount of about US$859 million from its partners, to be settled by November 2026.
The partners are Shell, TotalEnergies and Petrogal Brasil, a unit tied to Portugal’s Galp, all members of the BM-S-11A consortium. The payment follows the ANP’s approval of production unitisation agreements, which split a reservoir that crosses contract boundaries.
Under the new split, Petrobras holds about 45.4% of Sururu and 62.9% of Berbigão, effective from 1 May 2026. The settlement reconciles revenue, investment, operating costs and royalties back to the original concession signed on 15 September 2000.
Analysts at XP Investimentos, a Brazilian brokerage, said the sum equals about 0.52% of Petrobras’s market value. They added that it should support cash generation and dividends in the fourth quarter.
What It Means for You
For investors holding Petrobras ADRs, BBI expects analysts to keep revising production, profit and cash flow estimates upward. The bank models oil output of 2.8 million barrels a day in 2027 and 3.05 million in 2028.
September’s level already sits above the bank’s 2027 forecast, which BBI called reassuring for its view. It warned, however, that one strong month should not be extrapolated directly.
For the wider market, more Brazilian barrels add to supply from non-OPEC producers. That can help to cushion prices, although demand, conflict and OPEC+ decisions weigh far more on Brent.
Readers new to the country’s resource economy can start with Brazil Natural Resources Explained 2026. For the political backdrop, see Brazil Explained 2026 for Newcomers on Politics and Economy.
Petrobras has its headquarters in Rio de Janeiro, the hub of Brazil’s offshore oil industry. Our Rio de Janeiro city page covers life and business in the city.
What Is Not Known
The September numbers are preliminary, and the ANP’s consolidated bulletin for the month has not been published yet. Petrobras has not released its own third-quarter production report, which could show slightly different totals.
It is also unclear whether the 2.96 million level will hold in the coming months. BBI noted that planned stoppages, maintenance, well work and the pace of new platforms can all move monthly output.
Petrobras had not published its own September figures by Wednesday afternoon. The company has not said how it will use the US$859 million settlement.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much oil did Petrobras produce in September 2026?
Preliminary ANP data show Petrobras produced 2.96 million barrels of oil a day in September 2026. That was 1% more than in August.
Which fields drove the increase?
The Búzios and Tupi fields in the pre-salt layer led the gain, rising 2% and 8% in the month. Búzios stayed above one million barrels a day.
What is the US$859 million payment?
It is a net settlement Petrobras will receive from Shell, TotalEnergies and Petrogal Brasil over the shared Berbigão and Sururu reservoirs. The money is due by November 2026.
Why does this matter to US investors?
Petrobras ADRs trade in New York, and stronger output can lift profit and cash flow estimates. Analysts also expect the settlement to support fourth-quarter dividends.
Are the September figures final?
No, they are preliminary regulator data compiled by Bradesco BBI. The ANP’s consolidated bulletin and Petrobras’s third-quarter report will give the final numbers.
Sources: ANP, August 2026 production bulletin · Petrobras, Berbigão and Sururu agreements (13 Oct 2026) · Petrobras, second-quarter 2026 production · InfoMoney · Guia do Investidor
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief