Brazil November inflation rises 0.95%, reaches 10.74% for last 12 months
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), one of the main inflation metrics in Brazil, closed up 0.95% in November. The variation is the highest for the month since 2015.
In the accumulated 12 months through November, the index is up 10.74%, the highest in the period since 2003. In the year to date the IPCA rose 9.26% between January and November.
The IPCA has been rising sharply over the last few months, amid rising fuel prices on the international market. This water crisis had impacted electricity and food prices already high last year. The worldwide supply shock also contributes negatively.
In November, seven of the nine products and services surveyed by IBGE rose in price. According to IBGE, the most significant variation (3.35%) and the greatest impact came from transportation sector, affected by the recent hike in fuel prices and the reopening of the economy.
The price of gasoline had the most significant individual impact on the IPCA, with prices rising 7.38%. In 12 months, gasoline has accumulated a 50.78% hike.
Among the general groups, the second most significant impact was from housing (up 1.03%), which had already been rising the previous month. Health and personal care, food and beverages, a group with strong accumulated growth since 2020, fell (-0.04%).
The highest price hikes in the month in the IPCA basket were in Campo Grande (MS) and Salvador (BA).
SELIC ON THE RISE
Brazilian inflation for the past 12 months has been in double-digits since September and should close 2021 the same, for the first time since 2015.
Even so, given the high-interest rate, the expectation is of a slowdown in the economy and demand and a consequent drop in inflation. Banks and analysis houses are already projecting Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with zero growth for next year.
With lower expectations for the economy and higher interest rates, the projection of analysts heard in the latest Focus bulletin from the Central Bank is for the IPCA to reach 5.02% in 2022. This number has been progressively increasing in the projections but is still half of that today.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-0.41%
171,201.60
-0.41%
65,770.85
+0.06%
11,404.17
-1.16%
2,973,262
-0.73%
2,500.09
-0.42%
60,117.56
-0.21%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 171,201.60 | -0.41% | +21.85% | 171,906.72 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
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