Brazil Business - Brazil

Brazil: Inflation forecast for 2022 drops once more to 5.71%

By Rocco Caldero · October 10, 2022 · 2 min read

The financial institutions the Brazilian Central Bank (BC) heard in the Focus Bulletin reduced from 5.74% to 5.71% the forecast for inflation measured by the National Wide Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for this year.

The new estimate was released on Monday, October 10.

The forecast for administered price inflation in 2022 increased from -4.45% to -4.43%. Meanwhile, this year’s projection for inflation measured by the General Price Index – Market (IGP-M) fell from 7.95% to 7.79%.

For 2023, the financial market sources consulted by the Central Bank maintained the forecast for inflation measured by the IPCA at 5%.

For 2022, the estimate for the Selic rate remained at 13.75%. (Photo: internet reproduction)

The inflation forecast for next year for administered prices – controlled by contract or by the government – decreased from 5.61% to 5.50%.

Furthermore, the inflation projection measured by the IGP-M fell from 4.70% to 4.59%.

INFLATION VS. GDP

The forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2023 increased from 0.53% to 0.54%. However, the estimate for 2022 remained stable at 2.70%.

INTEREST, EXCHANGE RATE, AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

The forecast for the basic interest rate (Selic) at the end of 2023 was kept at 11.25%.

Currently, it is at 13.75%, which means that the market expects a decrease of 2.50 percentage points (pp) by the end of the year.

For 2022, the estimate for the Selic rate remained at 13.75%.

The projection for the exchange rate in 2023 was stable at R$5.20 per dollar, while the estimate for 2022 remained at R$5.20 per dollar. Four weeks ago, the forecasts were the same for both years.

The financial institutions the Central Bank (BC) heard in the Focus Bulletin survey maintained the forecast for the trade surplus in 2023 at US$60 billion, the same value observed last week.

The trade balance measures the result of sales of goods abroad (exports) minus purchases of goods from abroad (imports).

For 2022, the institutions reduced the trade surplus forecast to US$60 billion, against US$61.5 billion the previous week.

With information from Agência Brasil

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Brazil — Live Market Board

B3 · São Paulo
Jul 11, 2026 · 04:08

Ibovespa · benchmark

177,866
+2.97%

L 172,761day rangeH 177,866

+30.07% over 12 months

Market breadth · 15 names

93% advancing

14 ▲ advancing1 declining ▼

Currencies, rates & key inputs

USD / BRL

5.11

-0.17%

EUR / BRL

5.83

-1.07%

Selic rate

14.25%

·

Brent crude

76.00

-0.39%

Iron ore

161.91

·

Sector heatmap · average move today

Utilities

+5.15%

ENEV3

Financials

+3.99%

ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3

Mining

+3.90%

VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4

Consumer Disc.

+3.47%

AZZA3

Industrials

+3.00%

WEGE3, RENT3

Materials

+1.27%

SUZB3

Consumer Staples

+0.64%

ABEV3

Energy

+0.42%

PETR4, PRIO3

Latin America scoreboard

IndexLastTodayStrength

IbovespaBrazil
177,866
+2.97%

S&P/BMV IPCMexico
66,496
+0.59%

S&P IPSAChile
11,057
+0.28%

S&P MERVALArgentina
3,280,224
+2.43%

MSCI COLCAPColombia
2,307.67
+0.65%

BVL S&P PerúPeru
56,194.27
+1.29%

Full instrument board

Instrument	Last	Change	YoY	Prev.	High	Low	Volume
IBOV	177,866	+2.97%	+30.07%	172,742	177,866	172,761	—
USD/BRL	5.11	-0.17%	-8.50%	5.12	5.13	5.10	—
SELIC	14.25%		—	—	—	—	—
PETR4	39.65	+1.12%	+22.98%	39.21	39.97	39.34	27,209,700
VALE3	74.18	+1.41%	+34.19%	73.15	74.66	73.12	22,118,800
ITUB4	44.30	+4.02%	+29.44%	42.59	44.34	43.23	28,683,500
BBDC4	18.86	+4.78%	+16.85%	18.00	18.87	18.32	47,714,100
BBAS3	20.58	+2.90%	-2.97%	20.00	20.67	20.25	24,315,500
B3SA3	15.42	+4.26%	+9.44%	14.79	15.53	15.19	41,437,800
ABEV3	15.82	+0.64%	+19.58%	15.72	15.99	15.72	34,764,700
WEGE3	46.51	+1.68%	+16.57%	45.74	46.80	46.11	7,145,100
PRIO3	55.45	-0.29%	+32.66%	55.61	56.29	55.04	6,815,700
SUZB3	41.55	+1.27%	-16.65%	41.03	41.87	41.20	8,080,100
RENT3	41.10	+4.31%	+7.45%	39.40	41.32	40.31	8,338,600
AZZA3	19.10	+3.47%	-47.66%	18.46	19.30	18.81	1,703,700
CSNA3	5.18	+7.92%	-37.82%	4.80	5.20	4.95	14,590,700
GGBR4	23.01	+2.36%	+36.32%	22.48	23.10	22.58	10,449,500
ENEV3	27.55	+5.15%	+107.61%	26.20	27.55	26.61	16,185,800

Largest moves today

CSNA3
5.18
+7.92%

ENEV3
27.55
+5.15%

BBDC4
18.86
+4.78%

RENT3
41.10
+4.31%

B3SA3
15.42
+4.26%

ITUB4
44.30
+4.02%

AZZA3
19.10
+3.47%

IBOV
177,866
+2.97%

The session read

The Ibovespa rose 2.97%, with breadth positive — 14 of 15 names higher. Utilities led, while Energy lagged.

From The Rio Times

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