Brazil’s Bolsonaro Son Eyes 308 Votes to Curb Top Court

BRAZIL · POLITICS

The frontrunner in Brazil’s runoff spelled out the constitutional changes behind his pledge to “redemocratise” the country.

Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative frontrunner in Brazil’s presidential runoff, set out the constitutional amendments he wants on Wednesday, 7 October, in Brasília. First on his list is a reform of the Supreme Federal Court, whose Justice Alexandre de Moraes Washington sanctioned in 2025.

He also wants an end to presidential re-election and a lower age of criminal responsibility. Each amendment needs 308 of 513 lower-house votes, and parties backing him won 259 seats.

What He Proposed and Where

Flávio, a senator for Rio de Janeiro and eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, spoke to reporters on Wednesday morning. He stood beside leaders of União Brasil and Progressistas, centre-right parties that had just formalised their support.

On Tuesday in Goiânia, he vowed to use Congress’s new conservative majority to “change the Constitution” and “redemocratise” Brazil. Asked what he meant, he listed the amendments, Folha de S.Paulo and g1 reported.

“There has to be a reform of the judiciary,” he said, and a lower criminal age “has to be done by amendment.” He also named tax reform changes and an end to re-election, “to show I am not competing for power like this government.”

Later, at the event where the Republicanos party endorsed him, he repeated the pledge. “There is no way to accept the Supreme Federal Court the way it is,” he said, according to g1.

What the Amendments Would Change

His August campaign plan would limit rulings by single justices and move trials of politicians from the court to lower courts. It also proposes a one-year cooling-off period before former cabinet ministers join the 11-seat court.

The re-election plan is a proposed amendment, PEC 4/2026, that Flávio filed in the Senate on Monday, 2 March. It bars a sitting president from the next term, applies to whoever wins in 2026 and spares governors and mayors.

On Wednesday he left open stretching the term from four to five years. “It is Congress that will define the criteria,” he said, according to Folha.

Brazil’s Constitution says people under 18 cannot be held criminally liable. O Globo reports that a proposal to cut that age to 16 cleared a lower-house committee in June.

The 308-Vote Test

Under Article 60, an amendment must pass both houses twice, each time with three-fifths of members: 308 deputies and 49 senators. A US amendment needs two-thirds of Congress plus ratification by 38 states.

Clauses protecting the separation of powers, the direct vote and individual rights cannot be abolished by amendment. Flávio’s allies cite that limit to argue he plans nothing authoritarian, g1’s Valdo Cruz reported.

Official Chamber figures show Flávio’s conservative Liberal Party (PL) won 121 seats on 4 October, the largest bloc. With União Brasil and Progressistas (87), the centre-right Republicanos (41) and the pro-market Novo (10), his backers won 259.

Podemos, a centre-right party with 27 seats, is expected to join on Thursday, Folha reported, making 286. In the Senate, the PL will hold 28 of 81 seats from 2027.

How Rivals and Allies Responded

Flávio faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) on Sunday, 25 October. Lula’s allies said the Goiânia remark pointed to authoritarian plans, Cruz wrote.

Folha de S.Paulo’s editorial board called the proposals legitimate in theory but rejected his claim that Brazil is not a full democracy. Lula’s camp has also turned on the court, and PT president Edinho Silva says Lula wants to change how justices are picked.

What It Means for You

The US Treasury sanctioned Moraes in July 2025 over alleged censorship and the Bolsonaro prosecution, then delisted him on 12 December 2025. A Flávio win with a supermajority could reshape that court, and his campaign says one justice should not suspend laws indefinitely.

For holders of Brazilian assets, including New York-listed Petrobras and Vale, a clash between Congress and the court is a governance risk. The constitutional amendments rely on a new Congress that sits from 1 February 2027.

What Prediction Markets Say

Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, priced Flávio’s chance of winning at 84% on Thursday, 8 October. That was at 2:11 a.m. ET, with Lula at 16%, against 83% and 17% at 12:07 a.m.

On Polymarket, bets put a Flávio win by 4 to 8 points at 53.5% and by under 4 points at 33.5%. The margin market has drawn about US$117,000 in bets (2:05 a.m. ET).

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

Flávio has not released the wording of his judicial amendments, O Globo noted, or said which he would send first. His June security plan backs cutting the criminal age to 16, broadcaster Band reported, but he named no age on Wednesday.

It is unclear whether parties beyond his coalition, such as the centrist MDB with 36 seats, would back the constitutional amendments. No public response from Supreme Court justices, Speaker Hugo Motta or Senate President Davi Alcolumbre had been reported by Thursday morning.

What Comes Next

Datafolha publishes its first runoff poll on Thursday evening, and TV Globo hosts its runoff debate on Friday, 23 October. The runoff is on Sunday, 25 October.

PEC 4/2026 has awaited a first procedural step since March, the Senate record shows. Wednesday’s remarks do not start any amendment process.

Frequently Asked Questions

What constitutional amendments does Flávio Bolsonaro want?

He named Supreme Court and judicial reform, a lower criminal age, tax reform changes and an end to presidential re-election. He listed them in Brasília on Wednesday, 7 October.

How many votes does a constitutional amendment need in Brazil?

It needs three-fifths of each house in two rounds of voting: 308 of 513 deputies and 49 of 81 senators. No state ratification is required.

What is Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court?

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) is Brazil’s highest court on constitutional matters and has 11 justices. It also tries senior politicians, which is how it handled Jair Bolsonaro’s coup case.

Can Brazil’s Congress change any part of the Constitution?

No. Article 60 bars amendments that would abolish federalism, the direct secret vote, the separation of powers or individual rights.

When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?

The runoff is on Sunday, 25 October 2026, between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula. Flávio led the first round with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%.

Sources: Federal Senate, PEC 4/2026 record and text; Constitution of Brazil (Articles 14, 60, 101 and 228); Chamber of Deputies, 2026 seat results; Flávio Bolsonaro campaign plan on the judiciary, 12 August 2026; US Treasury, Moraes designation, 30 July 2025; OFAC recent actions, 12 December 2025; Folha de S.Paulo; Folha de S.Paulo (6 October); Folha de S.Paulo editorial; Folha Painel; Folha on Lula; g1; g1, Valdo Cruz; O Globo; Band (18 June) (all accessed 8 October 2026).