Brazil’s 41-Seat Republicanos Party Backs Bolsonaro Son
BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —The country Latin America’s largest economy holds its presidential runoff on 25 October.
- —What happened Republicanos formally endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro on Wednesday, 7 October.
- —The numbers Parties backing Flávio won 259 of 513 seats in the next Chamber.
- —The players Governor Tarcísio de Freitas helped broker it; Speaker Hugo Motta stayed away.
- —Prediction markets Kalshi bettors give Flávio 83% and Lula 17% (8 October, 12:48 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 84% (Lula: 16% and 16%), as of 8 October, 2:40 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Still open Podemos and MDB decisions are pending; Datafolha publishes a poll Thursday evening.
The party of São Paulo’s governor dropped its neutrality, giving Flávio’s backers a paper majority in the next lower house.
Brazil’s conservative candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, who says Brazil would join a Trump-led security initiative, won the Republicanos endorsement on Wednesday, 7 October. He faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a presidential runoff on Sunday, 25 October.
Parties formally backing Flávio won 259 of the 513 seats in the incoming Chamber of Deputies, two above a majority. For US investors and Washington, that bloc shows how much of a Flávio agenda could clear Congress if he wins.
Flávio, 45, is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The Supreme Federal Court convicted his father of attempting a coup.
Republicanos Drops Its First-Round Neutrality
Party president Marcos Pereira, a deputy for São Paulo, announced the decision at party headquarters in Brasília, Folha de S.Paulo reported. Republicanos is a centre-right party that stayed neutral in the first round on Sunday, 4 October.
“Republicanos will support Flávio Bolsonaro for president,” Pereira said, according to g1, while exempting the states of Paraíba and Pernambuco. “It is not a blank cheque,” he added.
The party did not bind its members, so members allied with Lula in the Northeast face no penalty. Pereira tied the support to administrative reform and fiscal responsibility.
São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, re-elected on 4 October with 62.65% of valid votes, helped broker the deal. “Republicanos is doing the right thing,” he told the event.
Chamber Speaker Hugo Motta, a Republicanos deputy from Paraíba who had backed Lula’s re-election, stayed away. Folha reported that keeping the speakership is the party’s main goal, and that the topic was discussed without a deal.
A 259-Seat Bloc on Paper
Official Chamber figures show the Liberal Party (PL), Flávio’s conservative party, won 121 seats on 4 October. The União Brasil and Progressistas federation, a centre-right alliance that endorsed him on Tuesday, won 87.
Republicanos won 41 seats, and the pro-market Novo party, which formalised its support on Wednesday, won 10. Together they won 259 of 513 seats; an absolute majority of the house is 257.
Podemos, a centre-right party with 27 seats, is expected to announce its support on Thursday, according to Metrópoles. That would lift the bloc to 286 seats.
Constitutional amendments need 308 votes, three-fifths of the house, in two rounds. On Wednesday Flávio listed amendments he wants, including judicial reform and an end to presidential re-election, Folha reported.
At the Republicanos event, he repeated a call to “re-democratise” Brazil, according to g1. “There is no way to accept the Supreme Federal Court the way it is,” he said.
Lula Looks for Regional Allies
Lula’s left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) is turning to regional leaders of centrist parties, Folha reported. Its president, Edinho Silva, said on Tuesday that PSD leader Gilberto Kassab left it free to court PSD regional leaders.
The PSD, a centrist party with 43 seats, has declared neutrality, although its member Ronaldo Caiado backs Flávio. The centrist MDB, with 36 seats, is due to meet Flávio on Friday, according to Metrópoles.
The first round was close: Flávio took 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, according to the final count reported by g1.
What It Means for You
For holders of Brazilian stocks, bonds and New York-listed shares, the bloc points to easier passage for a Flávio government’s bills. Pereira said Republicanos is willing to join such a government, though no portfolio has been discussed.
For Washington, the Republicanos endorsement strengthens a candidate who says Brazil would join the Shield of the Americas. Jornal do Comércio describes it as a Trump-led security initiative.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, priced Flávio’s chance of winning at 83%. Lula stood at 17% at 12:48 a.m. ET on Thursday, 8 October, unchanged since 12:07 a.m.
On Polymarket, bettors put a Flávio win by 4 to 8 points at about 54%, and by under 4 points at 32%. That margin market has traded about US$112,000.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 15.5% (US$175 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 16%
As of 8 October, 2:40 am ET (07:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not clear how many of the 41 Republicanos deputies-elect will campaign for Flávio. Nor is it known whether any deal covers Motta’s bid to stay Speaker.
It is also unknown whether the Republicanos endorsement moves voters. Datafolha’s first runoff poll, registered as BR-02949/2026, is due after 6 p.m. Brasília time on Thursday.
What Comes Next
Podemos is expected to declare support on Thursday, and Flávio is due to meet the MDB on Friday, 9 October. Free radio and TV airtime runs from 9 to 23 October, split equally, under a Superior Electoral Court resolution.
TV Globo has scheduled a debate between the two for Friday, 23 October, two days before the vote. The Republicanos endorsement does not settle the race, because party deals do not bind voters.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Republicanos?
A centre-right party led by deputy Marcos Pereira, with 41 seats in the next Chamber. It is the party of São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas.
Does Flávio Bolsonaro now have a majority in Congress?
Parties backing him won 259 of 513 Chamber seats, two above a majority. Endorsements do not bind individual deputies.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
On Sunday, 25 October. Flávio led the first round with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%.
What do prediction markets say about the runoff?
Kalshi bettors gave Flávio an 83% chance at 12:48 a.m. ET on 8 October. These are bets, not polls.
Sources: Republicanos; Câmara dos Deputados; Superior Electoral Court; Agência Senado; g1; g1 (Datafolha); Folha de S.Paulo; Folha de S.Paulo (amendments); Folha de S.Paulo (PT); Poder360; Poder360 (debate); Metrópoles; Jornal do Comércio (all accessed 8 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief