Brazil’s Exército do Lula Case Tests Meta’s Election Pledge
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —What happened On Monday 12 October, InfoMoney reported that the court’s president ordered the pro-Lula channel suspended, saying Meta had not applied its compliance plan.
- —The meeting Court president Kassio Nunes Marques meets both campaigns behind closed doors on Tuesday 13 October at 3:30 p.m. Brasília time (2:30 p.m. ET).
- —The channel Exército do Lula (Lula’s Army) is a WhatsApp channel run by Lula ally André Janones, with more than 3 million followers.
- —The rule Since a March 2026 resolution, large platforms must hand Brazil’s electoral court a compliance plan for curbing risks to the election, such as falsehoods.
- —The US link WhatsApp belongs to Meta Platforms of Menlo Park, California, which declined to comment, according to InfoMoney.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 87.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (13 October, 4:59 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 88% and Kalshi at 87% (Lula: 13% and 13%), as of 13 October, 5:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
The Exército do Lula case began as a fight over one WhatsApp channel and has become a test of Meta’s promises to Brazil’s electoral court. On Monday 12 October, InfoMoney reported that the court’s president ordered it suspended, finding that Meta had not applied its own compliance plan.
That president, Kassio Nunes Marques, has now called the campaigns of President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro to a closed meeting on Tuesday 13 October. For US readers, the case shows how far a Brazilian judge will hold a California platform to its written pledges, 12 days before the runoff.
What the Exército do Lula Channel Is
A WhatsApp channel is a one-way broadcast feed: only its administrators post, and followers read and forward the posts. Exército do Lula, or Lula’s Army, sends audio, videos and campaign instructions to supporters of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Diário do Nordeste reports.
It is run by André Janones, a federal congressman from Minas Gerais and a Lula ally. Brasil de Fato calls it one of the main digital mobilisation tools of Lula’s re-election campaign.
Its growth is what alarmed his opponents. Documents cited in the ruling put it at about 55,000 followers on 5 October and roughly 3.2 million by 10 October, Congresso em Foco reported.
The complaint came from Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator for the conservative Liberal Party (PL) and eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula, a co-founder of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), is seeking a fourth term.
What Meta Promised Brazil’s Electoral Court
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) organises national elections and rules on campaign disputes. A resolution of 2 March 2026 added Article 125-B to its campaign rules, obliging online platforms to file a compliance plan.
The plan must aim at “preventing and mitigating risks to the integrity of the electoral process”, the article says. A court ordinance, Portaria 463/2026, extends the duty to messaging services that broadcast publicly, “such as channels”.
Nunes Marques signed that ordinance on 27 July as court president. It gave services with more than 5 million monthly users in Brazil until 16 August to file their plans.
Meta filed one for Facebook, Instagram, Threads and WhatsApp and posted a 91-page public version on 19 August. It says WhatsApp’s terms bar using the service to publish falsehoods or misrepresentations or to send bulk messages.
The plan also gives candidates and parties a route to report content, and says WhatsApp strives to review all such reports within 24 hours. Separately, Meta signed a voluntary memorandum of understanding with the court in July, as it has every election cycle since 2018.
Why Nunes Marques Blamed Meta
Alongside a lawsuit, Flávio’s lawyers filed an administrative complaint with the court presidency, which supervises the compliance plans. They asked Nunes Marques to order the channel suspended within two hours.
They argued that the campaign had sent hundreds of reports to Meta in vain, and that the posts vanished only when Janones deleted them. The posts included claims that Flávio would cut pensions and had ordered a rise in Bolsa Família family cash transfers cancelled, InfoMoney reported.
Janones’s lawyers replied that he had taken the September posts down himself, before any court order on them. They called that exactly the result the law expects, InfoMoney reported.
On Sunday 11 October, Nunes Marques accepted the complaint in part and gave Meta three hours to suspend the Exército do Lula channel. “Self-regulation exists, but what the case file indicates, on a preliminary review, is that it was not applied to this specific case,” he wrote.
Nunes Marques also gave Meta 48 hours to explain how the channel worked and was moderated, Congresso em Foco and Brasil de Fato reported. Meta declined to comment, InfoMoney reported.
How the Fight Moved Between Sunday and Tuesday
Hours later on Sunday 11 October, inspector-general Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva restored the channel. Cueva, a Superior Court of Justice judge on the TSE, handles the related election-abuse lawsuit.
He found the administrative route wrong for restricting a campaign channel and the evidence too thin, InfoMoney and Brasil de Fato report. He barred the channel from repeating content the court has already ruled false and left the final word to the full bench, g1 reports.
On Monday 12 October, the court’s disinformation unit found no repeats of the disputed claims in posts from 2 to 11 October. It still warned of mass sharing before the runoff.
Lula had called the suspension absurd. “We will not accept undue interference by the electoral courts,” he said, Brasil de Fato reported.
The meeting Nunes Marques called brings together the campaigns’ coordinators and lawyers, SBT News reports. Officially it aims to “calm tempers”, according to Brasil de Fato, which reports that he is expected to address the channel episode.
What It Means for You
For Meta investors, the Exército do Lula case shows a Brazilian judge treating Meta’s own written plan as an enforceable duty. The ordinance says an approved plan creates no presumption of compliance that shields the provider from liability.
A second judge reversed that order within hours, so how far the plan binds Meta is still open. The full court will have to settle it.
Both camps now aim at the platform. Lula’s campaign accused Meta on 10 October of curbing the reach of pro-Lula posts to help Flávio, g1 reported.
Meta called those claims “simply false” and said it complies with Brazil’s election rules, g1 and Brasil de Fato reported. Flávio’s side, for its part, says Meta ignored its reports.
For anyone watching the runoff, the Exército do Lula fight is over a key channel of Lula’s digital campaign in its final 12 days.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 87.5% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 12.5% (13 October, 4:59 a.m. ET). The market has drawn about US$180 million in bets, and Flávio’s price rose 1.1 points in 24 hours.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 87.5% · Lula 12.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 13%
As of 13 October, 5:20 am ET (10:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The full court has not yet ruled on whether the Exército do Lula channel stays online until the runoff, and no date has been set. Meta has not said publicly how it handled the campaign’s reports or what it told the court.
The meeting with both campaigns was still to take place on Tuesday afternoon, and no agenda has been published. It is also unclear whether the court will act against other platforms under the same compliance rules.
More on this story: Brazil Finds No Fake News in Lula Channel; Who Is Brazil's Election Court Chief Kássio Nunes Marques; Brazil's Meta Ruling and What Comes Next Before the Runoff.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Exército do Lula?
Exército do Lula, or Lula’s Army, is a WhatsApp channel run by congressman André Janones, an ally of President Lula. It sends videos, audio and campaign instructions to more than 3 million followers.
What did Meta promise Brazil’s electoral court?
Under a rule adopted in March 2026, Meta filed a compliance plan in August describing how WhatsApp curbs election falsehoods and bulk messaging. It includes a reporting route for campaigns and a goal of reviewing reports within 24 hours.
Is the channel online now?
Yes, as of Tuesday 13 October. Inspector-general Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva restored it on Sunday 11 October, hours after Nunes Marques ordered it suspended. The full court still has to rule.
Why does the case matter outside Brazil?
WhatsApp is owned by Meta, a California company listed on the Nasdaq. The case tests whether a Brazilian court can enforce a US platform’s own election pledges during a national vote.
Sources: TSE, Resolution 23.755 of 2 March 2026, 2 March 2026; TSE, Portaria 463 of 27 July 2026, 27 July 2026; Meta, compliance plan (public version), 19 August 2026; Meta newsroom (Brazil), 17 August 2026; InfoMoney, 12 October 2026; Brasil de Fato, 12 October 2026; SBT News, 11 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, 11 October 2026; Diário do Nordeste, 11 October 2026; Poder360 (Flávio Bolsonaro campaign filing to the TSE presidency), October 2026; g1, 11 October 2026; g1, 10 October 2026; Metrópoles, 13 October 2026; Brasil de Fato, 11 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief