Brazil’s Meta Ruling and What Comes Next Before the Runoff
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —What happened On Monday 12 October, two Workers’ Party deputies asked the Supreme Court to investigate electoral court chief Nunes Marques.
- —The channel case The full electoral court must still rule on the Exército do Lula channel. As of Tuesday 13 October, no date had been set.
- —The meeting Nunes Marques meets both campaigns behind closed doors on Tuesday 13 October at 3:30 p.m. Brasília time (2:30 p.m. ET).
- —Online cut-off Paid or boosted campaign posts online end on Thursday 22 October, the electoral court of Paraná state says in its runoff guide.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 87.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (13 October, 5:16 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 87% and Kalshi at 87% (Lula: 13% and 13%), as of 13 October, 5:40 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
The Meta ruling that briefly shut a pro-Lula WhatsApp channel now awaits Brazil’s full electoral court, and its author faces a probe request. On Monday 12 October, two Workers’ Party deputies asked the Supreme Court to investigate Kassio Nunes Marques over alleged ties to Banco Master.
With 12 days left before the 25 October runoff, a closed meeting, a full-court vote and the end of paid online campaigning come next. For US readers, the court vote is the next test of how far Brazil can hold Meta, a California company, to its own pledges.
Where the Meta Ruling Stands Now
On Sunday 11 October, Nunes Marques, president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), issued the Meta ruling that suspended the Exército do Lula channel. He found that Meta had not applied its own compliance plan, as our Exército do Lula explainer sets out.
Hours later, inspector-general Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva restored the channel. He sent his decision straight to the full court, asking for the first available virtual session, Congresso em Foco and Brasil de Fato reported.
Cueva asked for that vote preferably within 24 hours, both outlets added, and SBT News also reported an urgent referral to the plenary. Yet as of early Tuesday 13 October, no date had been set for a vote on the Meta ruling.
Scheduling it awaits a decision by Nunes Marques himself, Metrópoles reported on Tuesday. Until the plenary rules, the channel may post and take new followers.
It may not repeat content the electoral courts have already ruled unlawful, SBT News and Congresso em Foco reported. On Monday 12 October, the court’s disinformation unit found no repeats of the disputed claims in recent posts.
Tuesday’s Meeting With Both Campaigns
Nunes Marques has called the campaigns of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro to a meeting on Tuesday 13 October. It starts at 3:30 p.m. Brasília time, which is 2:30 p.m. in New York.
Metrópoles called it an attempt to keep calm in the final stretch, and SBT News said it aims to align both sides on the rules. He is expected to address the Meta ruling, Metrópoles and Brasil de Fato reported.
Lula, a co-founder of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), seeks a fourth term. Flávio, a senator for the conservative Liberal Party (PL), is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
How the Request to Investigate Nunes Marques Could Proceed
Federal deputies Rui Falcão and Rogério Correia, both PT, filed a formal report of facts with the Supreme Court (STF). Poder360 and Correio Braziliense both reported the Monday filing.
It cites suspected passive corruption, money laundering, influence peddling, malfeasance and membership of a criminal organisation, Poder360 reported. In earlier statements, Nunes Marques denied receiving money from Banco Master’s owner, Daniel Vorcaro, the outlet added.
The deputies ask for the facts to go to the Prosecutor-General’s Office (PGR), Brazil’s top federal prosecutor. They also ask that the full STF, or a justice who has not declared himself conflicted, handle the case.
Brazil’s Constitution gives the STF the power to try its own justices for ordinary crimes. It gives the prosecution service the exclusive right to bring public criminal charges.
A separate request accusing Nunes Marques of a ‘crime of responsibility’, the route to impeachment, has already been filed with the Senate, both outlets reported. Under the Constitution, only the Senate tries Supreme Court justices for such offences.
The Digital Campaign Rules Until 25 October
Paid or boosted campaign content online is allowed only through Thursday 22 October, the regional electoral court of Paraná state and Congresso em Foco list. Free campaign airtime on radio and TV ends on Friday 23 October.
A TSE resolution of 2 March 2026 also bans posting or paid boosting of new AI-made content using a candidate’s image, voice or words. The ban covers even labelled content, from 72 hours before polls close until 24 hours after.
Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time on 25 October, Congresso em Foco reports, as our guide to runoff results explains. The AI window therefore opens on Thursday 22 October, which Congresso em Foco also lists.
The same resolution makes platforms jointly liable if, once aware of a takedown order, they fail to remove reposts of that content at once. No new court order is needed for that duty to apply.
What It Means for You
For Meta investors, the plenary vote on the Meta ruling is the next test of whether Brazil treats Meta’s written plan as an enforceable duty. Under the March resolution, Meta and other platforms already face joint liability if they leave reposts of banned content online.
For advertisers and agencies working in Brazil, paid campaign boosting online ends on Thursday 22 October. Anyone following the race should expect the channel dispute to stay open at least until the full court votes.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 87.5% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 12.5% (13 October, 5:16 a.m. ET). The market has drawn about US$180 million in bets.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 87.2% · Lula 12.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 13%
As of 13 October, 5:40 am ET (10:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
No date has been set for the plenary vote on the Meta ruling, and no outcome of Tuesday’s meeting had been reported by Tuesday morning. The Sunday order also gave Meta 48 hours to report on how the channel worked, what it posted and how it was moderated.
Congresso em Foco and Tribuna de Jundiaí reported that deadline, but not whether Meta answered or whether Cueva’s reversal of the Meta ruling paused it. It is also unknown which justice will receive the deputies’ filing and whether the PGR will act on it.
More on this story: Brazil Finds No Fake News in Lula Channel; Who Is Brazil's Election Court Chief Kássio Nunes Marques; Brazil's Exército do Lula Case Tests Meta's Election Pledge.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will Brazil’s full electoral court vote on the Meta ruling?
No date had been set as of Tuesday 13 October. Inspector-general Cueva asked for the first available virtual session, preferably within 24 hours, but scheduling depends on court president Nunes Marques.
Is the channel online now?
Yes. Cueva restored it on Sunday 11 October, hours after Nunes Marques ordered it suspended. It may not repeat content the electoral courts have already ruled unlawful.
Who decides on the request to investigate Nunes Marques?
The deputies filed it with the Supreme Court, which tries its own justices for ordinary crimes. Only the prosecution service can bring charges, and the deputies asked for the case to go to the Prosecutor-General’s Office.
When does online campaigning end before the runoff?
Paid or boosted campaign content online ends on Thursday 22 October. New AI-made content using a candidate’s image, voice or words is banned from 72 hours before polls close on Sunday 25 October.
Sources: Poder360, 12 October 2026; Correio Braziliense, 12 October 2026; Metrópoles, 13 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, 11 October 2026; SBT News, 11 October 2026; Brasil de Fato, 12 October 2026; TSE, Resolution 23.755 of 2 March 2026, 2 March 2026; TRE-PR, second-round campaign rules, 5 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, second-round dates, 5 October 2026; Constitution of Brazil (Arts. 52, 102, 129), 1988, as amended; Congresso em Foco (Exército do Lula suspension order), 11 October 2026; Tribuna de Jundiaí (Meta 48-hour report), 11 October 2026; SBT News (meeting), 11 October 2026; TSE, Resolution 23.610 as amended (Arts. 9-B, 9-E), compiled text, 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief