Bolsonaro’s popularity rises; only Lula would beat him in 2022 runoff – Atlas poll

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity level improved in May compared to March, an Atlas Institute poll has showed. According to the figures released Monday, May 10, 40% of the population approve of the far-right president’s performance, against 35% in March.

The resumption of emergency aid and some relief in the Covid-19 crisis are helping the government’s performance evaluations, despite the attrition of the Covid CPI (parliamentary investigative committee), says the institute’s CEO.

Disapproval also dropped slightly, from 60% two months ago to 57% now. The poll’s error margin is two percentage points plus or minus.

For Andrei Roman, Atlas’ CEO, Bolsonaro’s improvement is directly related to the resumption of emergency aid payments, as of April, albeit at lower amounts than the benefit paid in 2020. According to Roman, there is also “a certain relief in relation to the pandemic situation in the country,” he points out.

“The previous March poll was conducted at a point of greater stress,” he says. March and April were the most lethal months of the pandemic so far in Brazil. The average number of deaths has dropped in recent weeks, but experts point out that it is still early for any celebration and alert to the risk of a new wave of infections with the Mother’s Day gatherings this weekend.

As expected, the Bolsonaro government’s ratings also improved: 31% (against 25% in March) consider his administration excellent or good, against 53% who consider it bad or terrible (57% in March).

Lula also improves

The Atlas poll also shows that Bolsonaro’s improved popularity was reflected in a better performance in the electoral simulations for the presidential race in 2022. The president leads the race numerically in the first round, whether or not ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is present.

With Lula, he emerges in a technical tie. Both the president and the leftist candidate showed a better performance in May than in March. Bolsonaro’s voting intention increased from 32.7% two months ago to 37%. Lula, who managed to regain his political rights after Supreme Court rulings that eliminated the Ficha Limpa Law veto, also benefited from the new environment. In the polls, the ex-president rose from 27.4% in March to 33.2% in May in the simulation of voting intentions in the first round.

Lula is also the only one who continues to beat the current occupant of the Presidential seat in 2022 in a potential second round. The ex-president emerges with 45.7% against 41% for Jair Bolsonaro, a difference of almost five percentage points, when the error margin is two points. Ciro Gomes (PDT) and ex-minister of Health Luiz Henrique Mandetta (DEM) appear numerically ahead of Bolsonaro, but in both cases they are technically tied because of the error margin.

For Andrei Roman, Bolsonaro benefits from the increasing weakening of his former direct rivals on the right and center-right spectrum, with the decline of ex-judge Sergio Moro (he appears with 4.9% when he had 9.7% in March). “There is also the cannibalization of this space with the entrance of Danilo Gentili,” he points out.

The comedian and TV host is being hailed as a right-wing candidate – around the world, several performers have tried their luck in the polls as anti-establishment names, some of them successfully. In the Brazilian poll, however, Gentili has only 2%.

The survey also measured the leaders’ positive and negative image. In this respect, Lula and Bolsonaro are virtually tied numerically in terms of rejection by voters.

The Atlas poll was conducted with 3,828 interviews between May 6th and 9th, all through random internet questionnaires. The answers are calculated by an algorithm according to the features of the Brazilian population.

Source: El Pais