Argentina Stocks Fall 1.2% as Bonds Slip | Argentina Market Report, Oct 14
Key Facts
- Argentina’s Merval fell 1.2% to 2,835,843 on Wednesday 14 October, after a 1.45% gain on Tuesday.
- Country risk, the gap on Argentine dollar bonds over US debt, rose 12 points to 611, back above 600.
- YPF rose 0.89% to US$52.25 in New York, while Galicia fell 3.37% and Banco Macro 2.92%.
- The central bank bought another US$100 million, and the Treasury rolled over all its maturities, absorbing 1.75 trillion pesos (about US$1.16 billion).
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 66% that Argentina’s 2026 inflation ends between 30.0% and 34.9% (US$79,948 traded, read at 8:25 pm ET on 14 October). Bets, not polls.
Today’s Focus
Argentina’s main stock index, the S&P Merval, fell 1.2% to 2,835,843 points on Wednesday 14 October. The market followed Wall Street lower.
Country risk rose 12 points to 611, the gauge of how much more Argentina pays to borrow than the United States, Infobae reported.
The wholesale dollar closed at 1,513 pesos, up 50 centavos.
What matters today. Falling Argentine bank shares and a higher risk gauge matter to US holders of the ARGT fund and of YPF, because both track the same investor mood.
01 The session in one read
The Merval ended at 2,835,843, down about 33,300 points from Tuesday’s 2,869,151. The fall came a day after a 1.45% rise.
Sovereign dollar bonds fell 0.3% on average, Infobae said, which pushed country risk back above 600.
Argentina fell with the world, but its risk gauge reacted more than most. Country risk was below 600 before Wednesday.
The variable to watch is the bond market, because a further rise would raise borrowing costs.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval | 2,835,843 | -1.2% |
| Country risk (points) | 611 | +2.0% |
| Wholesale dollar (pesos) | 1,513 | +0.03% |
| ARGT fund (US$) | 86.99 | -1.89% |
| YPF (US$, NYSE) | 52.25 | +0.89% |
| Galicia (US$, NASDAQ) | 35.55 | -3.37% |
The retail official dollar stayed at 1,535 pesos and the informal “blue” dollar at 1,550, Infobae reported. The ARGT fund in New York fell 1.89% to US$86.99.
Consumer sentiment, measured by the Thomson Reuters Ipsos index, rose to 40.38 in October from 37.85 in September. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,835,843
-1.16%
+30.51%
3,022,485
3,042,365
2,991,150
—
USD/ARS
1,493
+0.10%
+12.96%
1,491
1,494
1,480
—
YPF
7,810
+0.26%
+72.84%
7,790
7,850
7,600
1,763,858
GGAL
6,980
-0.78%
+1.82%
7,035
7,115
6,920
1,564,062
PAMPA
5,115
+0.69%
+26.70%
5,080
5,140
5,000
721,190
TXAR
747.50
-2.35%
+18.67%
765.50
770.00
742.50
771,892
ALUAR
938.00
-1.21%
+29.83%
949.50
951.00
932.50
135,426
TGS
8,870
-0.17%
+15.05%
8,885
9,075
8,720
143,546
CEPU
2,156
+1.84%
+28.36%
2,117
2,165
2,086
404,146
MIRGOR
1,650
-1.20%
-92.90%
1,670
1,670
1,635
20,877
COME
40.93
-0.73%
-30.47%
41.23
41.60
40.50
4,258,884
LOMA NEGRA
3,130
+0.08%
+5.80%
3,128
3,205
3,090
182,992
BYMA
275.00
-1.70%
+35.14%
279.75
282.50
272.00
1,409,575
TELECOM ARG
4,233
-0.70%
+55.19%
4,263
4,335
4,160
31,896
GLOBANT
38.10
-2.26%
-49.65%
38.98
38.70
36.77
793,552
MERCADOLIBRE
1,870
-3.59%
-20.71%
1,940
1,927
1,870
329,640
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03 Why it moved: a bad global mood
Infobae said the poor global climate hit Argentina after US inflation of 3.7% beat the 3.6% forecast. The Nasdaq fell 1.88% and the S&P 500 1.11%.
Among Argentine shares listed in New York, Satellogic fell 9.3%, Bioceres 7.7% and Cresud 4.4%. Vista Energy rose 1.4%.
04 The central bank and the Treasury
The central bank bought another US$100 million as it builds a dollar cushion to avoid strains in 2027, Infobae reported. At a debt auction, the Treasury rolled over all maturities and absorbed 1.75 trillion pesos.
At 1,513 pesos per dollar, that is about US$1.16 billion of fresh peso funding. September inflation was 1.9% for the month and 33.4% for the year, official data showed on Tuesday.
05 The regional scoreboard
Argentina fell more than Brazil, Chile or Mexico. Chile’s IPSA lost 0.49%, Mexico’s IPC 0.26% and Brazil’s Ibovespa 0.18%.
The sell-off was global, but local bank shares added to the fall.
06 The outlook
The next test is whether country risk can return below 600. Bond prices and the dollar rate will show it.
What it means for you: if you buy Argentine assets through US-listed funds, the gap between bank shares and energy shares is now the main source of risk, and YPF held up best.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced a 66.0% chance that Argentina’s 2026 inflation ends between 30.0% and 34.9%, and 30.0% for 25% to 29.9%, with US$79,948 traded (read at 8:25 pm ET on 14 October).
These prices are bets, not forecasts, and they can move quickly on new data.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Country risk: A close back below 600 would show that the global shock has passed.
- Bank shares: Galicia and Banco Macro fell 3% on the day, so their next move matters.
- The dollar: The wholesale rate at 1,513 pesos is the reference for the band.
- US data: US retail sales on Thursday 15 October at 12:30 UTC will steer global risk.
Background: Argentina Stocks Gain 1.45% as Inflation Hits 1.9%.
Background: Argentina Stocks Slip 0.2% as Telecom Falls 3.4%.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Merval fall on 14 October?
It fell 1.2% to 2,835,843 as a poor global climate after US inflation hit Argentine shares and bonds, Infobae reported.
What is country risk?
It is the extra yield Argentine dollar bonds pay over US debt. It rose 12 points to 611 on Wednesday.
What is the dollar rate in Argentina?
The wholesale dollar closed at 1,513 pesos and the retail official dollar at 1,535, Infobae said.
What do prediction markets say about inflation?
Polymarket priced 66% for 2026 inflation between 30.0% and 34.9%, as of 8:25 pm ET on 14 October. These are bets, not forecasts.
Market data: RT; Merval close, country risk, dollar rates, auction and central bank purchases: Infobae; inflation: INDEC; prediction markets: Polymarket (as of 8:25 pm ET, 14 October 2026)
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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