Argentina Stocks Rise 0.69% as Banks Gain | Argentina Market Report, Oct 15
Key Facts
- Argentina’s S&P Merval rose 0.69% to 2,855,486 on Thursday 15 October, reversing morning losses as Wall Street recovered.
- Country risk rose to 622 basis points, touching 640 during the day, as US inflation worries hit dollar bonds.
- Globant jumped 6.4% and Supervielle 4.9% in New York, while YPF fell 2.18% to US$51.11.
- The peso held near 1,513 per US dollar, unchanged from Wednesday.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives Javier Milei 49.5% to win the next presidential election (US$905,990 traded, read at 8:24 pm ET on 15 October). Bets, not polls.
Today’s Focus
Argentina’s main stock index, the S&P Merval, rose 0.69% to 2,855,486 points on Thursday 15 October after losses in the morning. Infobae, citing the daily market summary, said it recovered as Wall Street rebounded.
The country-risk index, which measures the extra yield investors demand on Argentine dollar bonds, rose to 622 basis points. It touched 640 during the session and rose for a fifth straight day, Infobae reported.
US investors hold Argentina through ADRs and the ARGT fund, which rose 1.05% to US$87.90. The split between rising shares and weaker bonds is the main feature of the day.
What matters today. Rising shares alongside rising country risk shows that equity investors and bond investors read the same day differently, a pattern US holders of Argentine debt should watch.
01 The session in one read
The Merval ended at 2,855,486.21, a gain of 0.69% from Wednesday’s close of about 2,835,843. Trading Economics shows a slightly different close of 2,859,051, up 0.82%, so we use the figure published by the Buenos Aires summary.
Shares of Argentine companies traded in New York mostly rose. Globant led with 6.4%, followed by Supervielle at 4.9%, Grupo Financiero Galicia at 2.59% and Banco Macro at 1.94%.
YPF, the state-linked oil company, was the notable loser, falling 2.18% to US$51.11.
Equities gained while country risk rose for a fifth straight day. That suggests bond investors reacted to higher US yields and local uncertainty, while stock buyers followed Wall Street.
The cause of the bond weakness is not fully clear from the day’s data.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval | 2,855,486 | +0.69% |
| Country risk (basis points) | 622 | fifth rise |
| USD/ARS (RT) | 1,513 | 0.00% |
| ARGT fund (US$) | 87.90 | +1.05% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,744.06 | +0.33% |
The peso stayed at 1,513 per dollar in RT data. Argentina’s sovereign dollar bonds ended mixed, Infobae reported. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Argentina — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
MERVAL
2,859,051
+0.82%
+30.51%
3,022,485
3,042,365
2,991,150
—
USD/ARS
1,493
+0.10%
+12.96%
1,491
1,494
1,480
—
YPF
7,810
+0.26%
+72.84%
7,790
7,850
7,600
1,763,858
GGAL
6,980
-0.78%
+1.82%
7,035
7,115
6,920
1,564,062
PAMPA
5,115
+0.69%
+26.70%
5,080
5,140
5,000
721,190
TXAR
747.50
-2.35%
+18.67%
765.50
770.00
742.50
771,892
ALUAR
938.00
-1.21%
+29.83%
949.50
951.00
932.50
135,426
TGS
8,870
-0.17%
+15.05%
8,885
9,075
8,720
143,546
CEPU
2,156
+1.84%
+28.36%
2,117
2,165
2,086
404,146
MIRGOR
1,650
-1.20%
-92.90%
1,670
1,670
1,635
20,877
COME
40.93
-0.73%
-30.47%
41.23
41.60
40.50
4,258,884
LOMA NEGRA
3,130
+0.08%
+5.80%
3,128
3,205
3,090
182,992
BYMA
275.00
-1.70%
+35.14%
279.75
282.50
272.00
1,409,575
TELECOM ARG
4,233
-0.70%
+55.19%
4,263
4,335
4,160
31,896
GLOBANT
38.10
-2.26%
-49.65%
38.98
38.70
36.77
793,552
MERCADOLIBRE
1,870
-3.59%
-20.71%
1,940
1,927
1,870
329,640
Live Company IntelligenceArgentina Stocks Rise 0.69% as Banks Gain | Argentina Market Report, Oct 15 — the full investor dossier
03 Why it moved: Wall Street’s recovery
Infobae said the Merval turned positive in the afternoon as US stocks recovered, with the Dow Jones up 1.08% and the S&P 500 up 0.33%. Argentine shares trade closely with their New York listings.
Bonds had a harder day because yields on US debt remain high after Wednesday’s inflation report. Higher US yields raise the cost of borrowing for emerging markets such as Argentina.
04 The day’s movers
| Stock (New York shares) | Note | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Globant | Software services | +6.40% |
| Banco Supervielle | Bank | +4.9% |
| Grupo Financiero Galicia | Bank | +2.59% |
| Banco Macro | Bank | +1.94% |
| Mercado Libre | E-commerce and payments | +0.97% |
| YPF | Oil and gas | -2.18% |
The banks gained as a group, which is typical on days when Wall Street rises. YPF fell even though the USO oil fund rose 2.44%.
05 The regional scoreboard
Argentina was the second-best of the five main Latin American markets. Mexico’s IPC rose 1.31%, Chile’s IPSA 0.05%, Colombia’s COLCAP edged down and Brazil’s Ibovespa fell 1.06%.
The ILF fund, which tracks large regional companies, fell 0.83%.
06 The outlook
The key question is whether country risk can stabilise below 640 basis points. A sixth rise would suggest that the bond market, not the stock market, sets the tone.
Politics matter too, since the next presidential election is the longer-term driver. Prediction markets currently favour the president.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced Javier Milei at 49.5%, Axel Kicillof at 31.5% and Sergio Massa at 16.1% to win Argentina’s next presidential election, with US$905,990 traded (read at 8:24 pm ET on 15 October). It priced the chance that Milei leaves office before 2027 at 2.5% (US$167,491 traded).
These prices are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly on new events.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Country risk: A move above 640 basis points would confirm bond-market stress, while a fall below 600 would signal calm.
- Fiscal data: Argentina’s September budget balance is due on Friday 16 October at 15:07 UTC, with the previous reading at 1,990.
- US yields: Higher US yields would pressure dollar bonds again.
- The peso: Watch whether USD/ARS stays near 1,513.
Background: Argentina Stocks Fall 1.2% as Bonds Slip.
Background: Brazil Stocks Fall 1.06% as Real Weakens.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Argentine stocks close on 15 October?
The Merval rose 0.69% to 2,855,486.21 after morning losses, according to the Buenos Aires market summary published by Infobae.
What is the country-risk index?
It measures the extra yield investors demand on Argentine dollar bonds over US Treasuries. It rose to 622 basis points on 15 October, its fifth straight rise, Infobae reported.
Which stocks led and lagged?
Globant rose 6.4% and Banco Supervielle 4.9% in New York, while YPF fell 2.18% to US$51.11, according to RT.
What do prediction markets say about Argentina’s next election?
Polymarket priced Javier Milei at 49.5%, Axel Kicillof at 31.5% and Sergio Massa at 16.1% as of 8:24 pm ET on 15 October. These are bets, not polls.
Market data: RT/RT; Merval close, country risk and bonds: Infobae; alternative close: Trading Economics; prediction markets: Polymarket.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.
Get The Rio Times delivered to your inbox — market intelligence, daily briefs, and breaking analysis across Latin America.
Start for US$1