Argentina Stocks Dip 0.35% as Bonds Fall | Argentina Market Report, Oct 16
Key Facts
- Argentina’s Merval fell 0.35% to 2,848,945 on Friday 16 October, as sovereign dollar bonds lost 1.5% and the S&P 500 fell 1.09%.
- Country risk, the extra yield investors demand over US Treasuries, rose 24 points to 648, its highest level of 2026 and a sixth straight rise.
- The official peso rate was about 1,518 per US dollar, up 0.30% on the day, according to RT.
- YPF’s New York shares rose 1.94% to US$52.10, while Banco Macro fell 1.52% to US$64.04 and Grupo Galicia 1.23% to US$36.02.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives Javier Milei 46.0% to win the next presidential election (US$947,352 traded, read at 8:22 pm ET on 16 October). Bets, not polls.
Today’s Focus
Argentina’s main stock index, the Merval, fell 0.35% to 2,848,945 points on Friday 16 October, according to EFE. Sovereign dollar bonds lost 1.5% and country risk rose to 648 points, according to Infobae.
Country risk is the extra yield that investors demand to hold Argentine debt instead of US Treasuries. At 648 it is the highest reading of 2026, after six straight daily rises.
US investors mostly own Argentina through the ARGT fund and New York-listed shares. ARGT edged up 0.11% to US$88.00, while the energy company YPF gained and the banks fell.
What matters today. Rising country risk makes new borrowing costlier for Argentina, and it weighs on bank shares before it weighs on energy shares.
01 The session in one read
The Merval closed at 2,848,945, down 0.35%, according to EFE and Trading Economics.
Sovereign dollar bonds lost 1.5% and country risk rose 24 points to 648, a 2026 high, according to Infobae. It was the sixth straight daily rise in the measure.
The official exchange rate was about 1,518 pesos per dollar, up 0.30% on the day, according to RT. The peso has therefore weakened slightly since Thursday.
The bond market moved more than the stock market, with dollar bonds down 1.5% against a 0.35% fall in the Merval. Rising country risk usually hurts banks first.
The cause of the rise in country risk is not confirmed. Wall Street’s technology selloff may have added to it.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval (pesos) | 2,848,945 | -0.35% |
| Country risk (points) | 648 | +24 points |
| Official peso rate (per US$) | 1,518 | +0.30% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,659.44 | -1.09% |
| ARGT fund (US$) | 88.00 | +0.11% |
A rising peso-per-dollar figure means the peso lost value. The Merval is quoted in pesos, so a falling index in a weakening currency is a larger loss in dollars.
The ARGT fund holds Argentine shares in US dollars. It edged up because energy shares rose while banks fell.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Argentina — Live Market Board
-0.35%
205,430.33
+0.54%
68,420.16
+1.12%
10,969.16
-0.02%
2,848,945
-0.35%
2,566.28
-0.55%
60,210.69
-0.91%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | -0.35% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
03 Why it moved: bond stress and a global selloff
Argentine markets closed lower on a day of sharp falls in US stocks, according to Infobae. The Nasdaq fell 2.14% and the S&P 500 1.09%.
Country risk has now risen for six straight sessions, which tells us that investors are asking for more compensation to hold Argentine debt. That raises the cost of any new borrowing by the government.
Oil helped the energy names, with Brent at US$109.86 a barrel according to Energy Now. YPF, which produces shale oil in Vaca Muerta, gained 1.94% in New York.
04 The day’s movers
| Stock | Note | Change |
|---|---|---|
| YPF ADR (US$52.10) | Energy producer, New York shares | +1.94% |
| Pampa Energía ADR (US$81.10) | Power and gas, New York shares | +0.77% |
| Transportadora de Gas del Sur ADR (US$26.13) | Gas pipelines, New York shares | +0.62% |
| Grupo Galicia ADR (US$36.02) | Largest private bank, New York shares | -1.23% |
| Banco Macro ADR (US$64.04) | Bank, New York shares | -1.52% |
Energy stocks rose with oil, while banks fell with country risk. These are New York closing prices in US dollars.
Local share prices in pesos can differ because they also move with the exchange rate. We show only the New York closes because they are the figures US investors see.
05 The regional scoreboard
Argentina ended lower with Colombia, which lost 0.55%, and Chile, which was flat at −0.01%. Mexico’s IPC rose 1.87% and Brazil’s Ibovespa 0.54%.
Argentina’s falling bonds point to local stress on top of the global selloff. Mexico and Brazil rose on the same day.
06 The outlook
The next test is whether country risk keeps climbing past 648. A seventh daily rise would extend the streak and keep the pressure on banks.
From Monday 19 October the S&P Merval is renamed MSCI Merval after a new partnership between the Buenos Aires exchange and MSCI, according to Infobae and Ámbito. The index composition is also renewed, which may cause some stocks to move.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced Javier Milei at 46.0% to win the next presidential election, ahead of Axel Kicillof at 29.5% and Sergio Massa at 15.3%, with US$947,352 traded (read at 8:22 pm ET on 16 October). These prices are bets, not polls.
They can move quickly on new surveys. Economic news can also shift them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Country risk: A seventh straight rise above 648 would extend the streak.
- The Merval renaming: From Monday 19 October the index is called MSCI Merval with a renewed list of stocks.
- Budget data: Argentina’s September budget balance was due on Friday 16 October at 15:07 UTC; we could not confirm the result.
- Oil: Brent near US$110 supports YPF and Pampa Energía.
Background: Argentina Stocks Rise 0.69% as Banks Gain.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Argentine stocks fall on 16 October?
The Merval fell 0.35% to 2,848,945 on a day of sharp falls on Wall Street and rising country risk, according to Infobae. Sovereign dollar bonds lost 1.5%.
What is country risk and why did it matter?
It is the extra yield investors demand over US Treasuries to hold Argentine debt. It rose 24 points to 648, its highest level of 2026, according to Infobae.
Which Argentine stocks rose and fell?
In New York, YPF rose 1.94% while Banco Macro fell 1.52% and Grupo Galicia 1.23%. The figures are RT closing prices.
What do prediction markets say about the next election?
Polymarket priced Javier Milei at 46.0% to win as of 8:22 pm ET on 16 October. These are bets, not polls.
Market data: RT; index and bonds: EFE, Infobae, Ámbito; oil: Energy Now; prediction markets: Polymarket.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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