The economic program of Minister Sergio Massa continues to show signs of an evident failure in terms of activity and stabilization, despite the announcements of the ruling party. More and more early indicators of activity suggest that the Argentine economy has entered a new recessive phase, at the same time that inflation is the highest since 1991.
The INDEC confirmed that the Synthetic Indicator of Construction Activity (ISAC) fell by 0.5% in the month of November, and fell by 1.5% compared to the same month in 2021. It is the fifth fourth-month consecutive fall that construction suffers, after the violent inflationary outbreak of the month of July.
Construction activity accumulated a collapse of up to 8.3% between August and November, according to the seasonally adjusted series of the INDEC indicator. This index works as a kind of preview of what was the evolution of general economic activity.
The official body also concluded that industrial activity grew by only 0.8% in November, and the very slight recovery was not able to offset the two consecutive falls of the preceding months. The manufacturing industry fell by 1.6% compared to the level of activity in July, a trend explained by the fall of 1.1% in September and up to 1.3% in October.
Even the effect of statistical drag was consumed by the recessionary trend, as the year-on-year increase in industrial activity moderated to 1.5% compared to November 2021, the lowest annual increase in the last 10 months. The industry’s installed capacity has remained below 69% since August, and fell to 66.7% at the end of October.
The sector most affected by the recession was the production of wood, paper, publishing and printing, which suffered a year-on-year drop of 6.4% in November, followed by textile production (-4.6%), machinery and capital goods. (-4.2%), rubber and plastic products (-3.6%), furniture and mattresses (-1.5%) and other transport equipment (-1.4%).
The Government did not offer solutions regarding the dismal results of the Massa program. The same Secretary of Industry and Productive Development, the ultra-protectionist businessman José Ignacio de Mendiguren, went so far as to deny the situation and affirmed that “the level of economic activity is maintained” on his social networks.
The data openly contradicts the Minister. The Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) that measures the INDEC warned of a decline of 0.3% in September and another 0.3% in October. Likewise, the Leader Index prepared by the Torcuato Di Tella University has been falling since April 2022, and the General Activity Index (IGA) of OJF & Asociados estimates that the economy fell another 0.2% in November.
With information from La Derecha Diario
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