Why does Paraguay support Taiwan amid tensions with China?

The Paraguayan government made clear its support for Taiwan in the face of China’s military maneuvers around the island amid the visit to Taipei of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi.

What motivates the position of Paraguay, one of the 14 countries that recognize Taiwan as an independent state?

The Chinese Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the visit and assured that it would take “all necessary measures to resolutely protect state sovereignty and territorial integrity”, along with the announcement of maneuvers in six regions surrounding Taiwan from August 4-7, training activities that include live-fire exercises.

Almost 20,000 kilometers away, the new stage of tension between China and Taiwan, with the implications of a possible conflict for global geopolitical security, is also being experienced in Paraguay, the only South American country to recognize Taipei diplomatically.

In an exclusive conversation with Sputnik, Julieta Heduvan, a graduate in International Relations and specialist in Paraguayan foreign policy, explained that the diplomatic path chosen by Paraguay must be framed in the context of the Cold War, where the openly declared anti-communism of Paraguayan dictator Alfredo Stroessner (1954-1989) tipped the balance towards Taipei over Beijing.

PARAGUAY’S POSITION

Once the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taipei was announced, Paraguay was quick to take a pro-Taiwan stance; however, “I don’t think it will change anything at the regional level.”

Paraguay has always been a differentiated country in that sense and has been since the late 1950s when all countries began to change their recognition; “Uruguay was one of the last in 1988”, emphasizes the international analyst.

This week, there was a meeting between the Taiwanese ambassador and the Paraguayan Foreign Minister Julio César Arriola, and it was not reported that they talked about the conflict.

“But there were many messages, and surely there will be more, of direct support that punishes or denounce China’s actions, the threat that Taiwan’s military deployment entails for Taiwan”, says Heduvan.

The maintenance of relations between the South American country and Taiwan is explained, above all, “because the hegemonic party, the Colorado Party, is still in power and has maintained these relations for so many years,” explains the graduate in International Relations.

In addition to the meeting between the Taiwanese ambassador and the Paraguayan foreign minister, messages began circulating on Twitter from the Paraguayan president, Mario Abdo Benítez; the president of the Senate friendship committee, Arnaldo Franco, and the president of the deputies’ foreign relations committee, among others.

“There were several messages from deputies who are positioning themselves in favor and defense of Taiwan and who are denouncing China’s actions, affirming that there is a direct threat to democracy and security in the region”, the expert highlights.

“Nobody expected everything to be so heated, so fast, still the conflict between Ukraine and Russia in the making has all governments and all analysts in check because they do not know what will happen.

“The US is opening many fronts and what is happening is a direct challenge to China, and we are still not understanding; it is not clear whether it is a US action that responds to internal politics or external needs from its position of hegemon in decline or on the decline”.

WHY TAIWAN?

After the triumph of the Chinese Communist Party led by Mao Zedong in the Civil War in 1949, the Nationalist side led by Chiang Kai-shek retreated to the island of Taiwan (south), from where the Republic of China was established in disobedience to the recently formed People’s Republic.

More than seven decades have passed since the advent of the People’s Republic of China, and yet the diplomatic struggle between the Asian giant and the small island of Taiwan for international recognition has not ceased. Both claim not only the territory of the other but also claim to be the legitimate republic of China.

In South America, this tension is found in Paraguay, one of the 14 states in the world that recognizes and maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan and, therefore, does not recognize the People’s Republic of China.

Paraguay is the only country in South America to maintain this status, but not the only one in Latin America, since Central America’s Guatemala, Haiti, and Honduras -whose government announced that it would initiate contacts with China- also do so.

“It has been unchanged since 1957. It began with Stroessner, and there was never a real possibility of changing the recognition because when the dictatorship fell, the same Colorado Party continued, and then there was only a minimal transition with Fernando Lugo (2008-2012)”, said Heduvan.

Although Lugo established one of his campaign axes to change the relationship, he did not find a good moment at the international level. “Just at that time, there was a kind of truce between China and Taiwan, where they had agreed not to modify or ‘steal’ allies”, added the lawyer.

For Paraguay, in geopolitical terms, it continues to be very convenient to have Taiwan as an ally, also considering that the United States is one of the most important partners of the South American country.

SENSE OF PARAGUAY’S POSITION

The paradox is that, in commercial terms, “there are no impediments to imports of all kinds from China. The problem for Paraguayans lies in the loss of a gigantic receiving market for its main export products: soybeans and beef,” says the international analyst.

“The trade situation is strange because there is no impediment. Although it is not as direct as other countries that recognize China, the lack of recognition is not seen as a hindrance in trade flows,” Heduvan emphasized.

The flow of trade is not affected by this lack of recognition. Still, the most significant loss is at the level of infrastructure projects within the framework of regional and far-reaching projects.

“For example, Argentina has them, with nuclear power plants and dams. The Silk Road itself, are projects where Paraguay is left out,” he said.

“Taiwan has never had such large projects, but it did supply Paraguay with economic assistance on a smaller scale. Now that China has many more resources and capabilities is when the difference is noticeable because Taiwan, even though it is a rich state compared to Paraguay, does not have the same resources as China, and it is a limitation that is now much more noticeable than before,” the graduate said.

At the political level, there are several issues affected by the lack of recognition of China, for example, in the Mercosur area, where it has become an obstacle to the signing of free trade agreements with the Asian giant promoted by Uruguay at present, as well as by Argentina and Brazil in other instances.

“Now, in fact, the vice-presidency issued a tweet highlighting the support to Taiwan as the first meat export market, which has been very important since Russia was the second and Taiwan was raising import quotas, responding to pressure from Paraguay that needed some partner or important ally that could help it with the meat quotas that it exported to Russia” and that it can no longer export as a result of the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the US and the West.

On the other hand, there is the economic and technical assistance that “is seen in a lot of joint projects, donations. There is a lot at stake in the relationship between Paraguay and Taiwan”.

CHANGE OF SCENERY

But for the moment, all the messages of direct support from the government and the representatives of Paraguay “respond to the same political party, which is the Colorado Party”, in line with this historical alignment.

“We do not know what will happen if the government changes; if the opposition wins in 2023, the opposition has not spoken about it, but in the past, there have been talks that at least the left poses a change of recognition towards mainland China, but well, during Lugo’s government it did not happen, so we do not know what can happen.”

US CAMPAIGN?

According to the Argentinean graduate in International Relations, based in Asunción, Paraguay, “China has openly communicated that it feels that the position being taken by the US and part of the international community is a threat to its ‘one China’ policy”.

“I would not dare to say what the US strategy is in making this meeting so controversial,” but China does respond clearly “that it is willing to take stern action because this US defiance is affecting its position in the region and its one-China policy,” Heduvan concludes.

With information from Sputnik