Spain’s Next Leader? Meet Alberto Núñez Feijóo

On 27 September 2023, Alberto Núñez Feijóo stood in Spain’s Congress four votes short of power. He had won the most seats in that summer’s election, yet 172 deputies backed him as prime minister and 178 voted no.

Three years on, the 65-year-old leader of the conservative People’s Party gets his rematch on Sunday, 29 November, and the arithmetic looks kinder. Most private polls and the prediction markets make him the favourite to replace Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

For Americans, the stakes are concrete: Spain hosts two US military bases and traded almost US$48 billion in goods with the United States in 2025. It has also clashed with President Donald Trump over defence spending and Iran, and Feijóo says the relationship with Washington “must be preserved”.

What the card below means in plain terms: traders give Feijóo roughly a four-in-five chance of becoming prime minister. These are real-money bets, not polls or votes, and they update every 20 minutes.

This profile explains who he is, what his party stands for and how Spain picks a prime minister. Our analysis of Spain’s snap election covers the wider stakes for Latin America.

Who He Is

Feijóo was born on 10 September 1961 in the inland province of Ourense and grew up in the village of Os Peares, in Galicia, the rainy north-western region above Portugal. Galicia has its own language, Galician, and its own regional government, the Xunta, which he would lead for 13 years.

He grew up in a working family, and his grandmother Eladia ran a small grocery shop, according to a profile in the Madrid daily El Mundo. He studied law in Santiago de Compostela, joined Galicia’s civil service in 1985 and by 1991 was number two to José Manuel Romay Beccaría, a PP veteran, at the regional health department.

That background still shapes his style: he talks about budgets, management and the political centre rather than ideology. In July 2025 he set the goal of again being “a party of 10 million voters”, following the centrist path José María Aznar charted on his way to power in the 1990s.

A 2022 profile in the conservative daily El Debate called his laconic manner a trademark. His partner, Eva Cárdenas, is a former head of Zara Home, a brand of Zara owner Inditex, and their son was born in 2017, when Feijóo was 55.

How a Regional Leader Rose to the Top

Feijóo climbed through public administration long before he ever stood for election. The timeline below traces the main steps.

• 1985
  Joins Galicia’s civil service.
• 1991
  Becomes a senior official in Galicia’s regional government, aged 29.
• 1996
  Head of Insalud, the state health institute that then ran public health care in regions without their own service, under Prime Minister José María Aznar.
• 2000 to 2003
  Head of Correos, the state postal company.
• 2003 to 2005
  Regional minister and then vice-president of Galicia under Manuel Fraga, who co-founded the party’s forerunner, Alianza Popular.
• 2006
  Leader of the Galician PP, after the party lost power in the region in 2005.
• 2009 to 2022
  President of Galicia, with four absolute majorities: 38, 41, 41 and 42 of 75 seats.
• April 2022
  Elected national PP leader with 98.35% of delegates’ votes, succeeding Pablo Casado.
• 2023
  Wins the most seats, 137, in July, then loses two votes in Congress in September, 172 to 178 and 172 to 177.
• July 2025
  Re-elected party leader with 99.24% of the vote.
• 19 October 2026
  Signs his “Contract with Spain” campaign pledges in Madrid.

In Galicia he sold himself as a manager who balanced the books. His first campaign rested on austerity and modernisation, a brand he kept for 13 years.

Galicia’s public debt still rose on his watch, from 6.8% of regional output when he took over to 17.4% when he left, according to Bank of Spain data cited by eldiario.es. That was still the third-lowest ratio among Spain’s regions in early 2022, against an average of 25%, the daily El Correo Gallego reported.

The Marcial Dorado Photos

The biggest blow of his Galician years came in March 2013. The Madrid daily El País published photos from the mid-1990s showing him relaxing on a boat off Vigo with Marcial Dorado, a smuggler later convicted of drug trafficking.

Feijóo admitted the relationship, said he had no reason at the time to suspect his friend and said he cut contact in 1997, a date Dorado later disputed. In April 2013 he apologised to the Galician parliament, noting that at the time he was not president and Dorado had not been convicted of drug trafficking.

“I was wrong. I was not prudent.”
Alberto Núñez Feijóo to the Galician parliament, April 2013, apologising for the photos

Opposition parties demanded his resignation, but he was never charged and refused to step down. Voters re-elected him with absolute majorities in 2016 and 2020.

What His Party Wants

The People’s Party is Spain’s main centre-right party and the conservative counterweight to the Socialists. It took its name in January 1989, when Manuel Fraga refounded Alianza Popular, and it has belonged to the European People’s Party, the alliance of Europe’s centre-right parties, since 1991.

Two PP leaders have governed Spain: Aznar from 1996 to 2004 and Mariano Rajoy from 2011 to 2018, when a no-confidence vote brought Sánchez to power. Feijóo pitches the party as moderate and pro-European while taking a tougher line on migration and Catalan separatism.

His platform is a 12-point “Contract with Spain”, which he signed by hand at a Madrid event on Monday, 19 October. These are its headline pledges.

• At least one million new homes.
• Pensions that rise with inflation.
• A “cleaner and lighter” state.
• A law banning “collective” regularisations of undocumented migrants, and expulsion of foreigners who commit crimes.
• Defence of “national sovereignty and territorial integrity”, a rebuke to the Socialists’ 2024 amnesty law for Catalan separatists.
• Spanish guaranteed in classrooms.

The hardest question is Vox, which won 33 seats in 2023 and stands above 18% in most private polls. On 13 October Feijóo spoke on radio about the party, ruling out a cordon sanitaire around it.

“Vox is not our enemy.”
Alberto Núñez Feijóo, 13 October 2026, naming “the policies of Sánchez and his partners” as his adversary

Abascal has already set his terms: “national priority” for Spaniards in public aid, deregulation and what he calls “remigration”, meaning expulsions. The PP and Vox governed several regions together from 2022 until Vox walked out in July 2024.

On defence, Feijóo has broken with Sánchez’s resistance to NATO’s new spending target. In December 2025 he told El Debate he would raise defence spending to 3.5% of output plus 1.5% for security infrastructure, with a review in 2029.

How Spain Picks a Prime Minister, Step by Step

Spaniards do not vote for a prime minister directly. They elect 350 deputies from closed party lists in 52 districts, the 50 provinces plus the North African cities of Ceuta and Melilla.

1. 29 November: voters choose parties; seats are shared out by the D’Hondt formula, and a party needs 3% of a province’s vote to win a seat there.
2. 23 December: the new Congress meets.
3. Next: King Felipe VI consults party leaders and proposes a candidate.
4. First vote: the candidate needs an absolute majority, 176 votes.
5. Second vote, 48 hours later: more yes than no votes is enough.
6. Deadline: if no one wins within two months of the first vote, Spain votes again, as it did in November 2019.

Many rural provinces elect only two or three deputies, so small swings in votes can move many seats. In 2023 the numbers were brutal for Feijóo: the PP’s 137 seats, Vox’s 33 and two single-seat allies made 172.

Sánchez won 179 votes in November 2023 with Sumar, regional parties and Junts. This time the private polls point the other way, with GAD3 giving the PP 133 seats and Vox 65.

The state-run Centre for Sociological Research (CIS), led since 2018 by long-time Socialist Party member José Félix Tezanos, is the outlier. Its October survey puts the Socialists on 34% and the PP on 22.2%, a picture no major private pollster shares.

If the PP and Vox fall short of 176, Feijóo would have to court parties that backed Sánchez in 2023. They include the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), a centre-right regional party, and Junts, which helped sink Sánchez’s housing decrees in October.

The Sánchez Problem

Pedro Sánchez, 54, has led Spain since 2018 and heads the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), the main centre-left party. Since November 2023 he has run a minority coalition with the left-wing Sumar alliance, relying on regional and separatist parties to pass laws.

That arithmetic broke on Friday, 2 October, when Junts sided with the PP, Vox and the one-seat UPN to defeat two housing decrees, 172 to 178 and 166 to 184. Three days later Sánchez called the election, saying: “We need a much broader progressive majority.”

His government had not passed a budget during this parliament, and the courts have shadowed his term. The cases below are as reported by Spanish courts and media, and everyone named is presumed innocent until a final ruling.

• José Luis Ábalos, his former transport minister and Socialist organisation chief, was sentenced by the Supreme Court in June 2026 to 24 years and three months in prison over kickbacks on pandemic mask contracts; on 14 October the court rejected his bid to annul the ruling, and he can still file an appeal for constitutional protection (amparo) with the Constitutional Court.
• Santos Cerdán, who succeeded Ábalos as party organisation secretary, spent June to November 2025 in pre-trial detention and remains under investigation over alleged rigging of public works contracts.
• Begoña Gómez, Sánchez’s wife, was sent to a jury trial in September 2026 over allegations that she used her position to advance her career at Madrid’s Complutense University; she has not been convicted.
• David Sánchez, his brother, was convicted in July 2026 by a court in Badajoz and barred from public employment for nine years over irregularities in the job the provincial government gave him in 2017; he has appealed, and the prime minister defends his innocence.
• Álvaro García Ortiz, the former attorney general, was convicted by the Supreme Court in November 2025 of revealing confidential information and barred from the post for two years; two judges dissented, and he has appealed to the Constitutional Court.

Sánchez himself has not been charged in any of these cases. The PP led the popular prosecution in the mask trial, a role Spanish law opens to citizens and parties, and its contract promises a “cleaner” state.

What the Betting Markets Say

Traders see Feijóo as the clear favourite. At 5:26 a.m. ET on 21 October, Polymarket priced his chance of becoming prime minister at 82.5%, against 14.4% for Sánchez and 2.5% for Abascal.

About US$2 million has been traded on that question, and Kalshi, which the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates in the US, had Feijóo at 81%. A separate Polymarket market gives the PP an 82.5% chance of winning the most seats, against 16.5% for the Socialists.

The timing markets tell their own story. Polymarket puts the chance that Sánchez is out of office by 31 December at only 14%, rising to 44.5% by 15 January and 61% by 31 January 2027.

That pattern follows the calendar, because Sánchez stays on as caretaker prime minister until Congress confirms a successor and the new chamber only meets on 23 December. On Kalshi, thin trading puts the chance that Vox joins the next government at about 75%.

Markets can be wrong, and a few large bets can move thinly traded contracts. The live card near the top of this page updates every 20 minutes, and our prediction markets hub tracks odds on elections across Latin America and Africa.

Why Americans Should Care

Spain is a NATO ally that hosts US forces at the naval station in Rota and the air base in Morón, both in the south. In 2025 the United States exported US$26.6 billion in goods to Spain and imported US$21.3 billion, a US surplus of US$5.2 billion, according to the Census Bureau.

Relations soured under Sánchez, who resisted NATO’s 5% spending goal in 2025 and barred US use of Rota and Morón for strikes on Iran in 2026. On 3 March, Trump said Spain had been “terrible” and threatened to cut off all trade with it, although trade policy is set by the European Union.

Feijóo attacked Sánchez over that clash, telling him that “if Iran thanks you and the United States considers you a terrible ally, you are failing”. He also said the relationship with Washington “must be preserved”, and his NATO pledge answers the main US complaint about Spain.

Migration is the second link, after mass entries from Morocco into Ceuta, Spain’s city on the North African coast, on 30 and 31 July 2026. Feijóo said Sánchez should have deployed the army there.

A PP government would also ban by law the kind of mass regularisation that drew about 1.17 million applications from undocumented migrants under Sánchez this year. Almost seven in ten applicants came from Central and South America, led by Colombians, as our report on the regularisation explains.

Latin America is the third link. Feijóo met Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González in January 2026 and attacked Sánchez for backing Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s acting president since US forces seized Nicolás Maduro that month.

Argentina’s President Javier Milei, in Madrid on 20 and 21 October, called Sánchez a “dictator” at a business breakfast. His agenda included Disenso, a foundation linked to Vox, but no meeting with Feijóo, who has avoided a photo with him before the vote.

In Brussels, a Feijóo government would sit with the European People’s Party, the largest group in the European Parliament and the political family of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. For Spanish-speaking Americans with family or business in Spain, the result will set the tone on visas, investment and Latin America policy until 2030.

What We Do Not Know

No one knows whether the PP and Vox will reach 176 seats together, or whether Vox would demand cabinet posts or back Feijóo from outside government. The gap between the state pollster and private firms is wide, and the official campaign only starts on 13 November.

The televised debates could still move undecided voters, starting with a Sánchez-Feijóo face-off on Mediaset for which the PP has accepted the proposed date of 16 November. It is also not known whether new court rulings in the corruption cases will land before polling day.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Alberto Núñez Feijóo?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo, 65, is the leader of Spain’s conservative People’s Party (PP) and the main rival of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. He governed the north-western region of Galicia from 2009 to 2022 and has led the PP since April 2022.

What party is Feijóo in?

He leads the Partido Popular, or People’s Party, Spain’s main centre-right party, which took that name in 1989. It belongs to the European People’s Party, the alliance of Europe’s centre-right parties.

Is Feijóo conservative?

Yes, he is a mainstream conservative who presents himself as a moderate, pro-European manager. His platform pledges one million new homes, pensions tied to inflation, cuts to wasteful spending and tougher rules on migration.

Could Feijóo become prime minister of Spain?

Yes, if he wins 176 votes in Congress after the 29 November election, or a simple majority in a second ballot. Most private polls show his PP and Vox above that mark together, but the state pollster CIS has the Socialists ahead.

When is the Spanish election?

Spain votes on Sunday, 29 November 2026, after Pedro Sánchez called an early election on 5 October. The campaign runs from 13 to 27 November, and the new Congress meets on 23 December.

What are the odds in the Spanish election?

On 21 October at 5:26 a.m. ET, Polymarket gave Feijóo an 82.5% chance of becoming prime minister and Kalshi gave him 81%. These are real-money bets, not polls, and the live card near the top of this page updates every 20 minutes.

Sources: Boletín Oficial del Estado, Royal Decree 806/2026, via Europa Press (6 October 2026); Spanish Constitution, Article 99; electoral law (LOREG); 2023 official results; Europa Press on the 2023 investiture vote and the 2025 congress; El Confidencial on the housing vote; Partido Popular; European People’s Party; US Census Bureau; El País on the Dorado photos, the Contract with Spain, the court cases, the Ábalos ruling, Trump’s threat, the regularisation and Milei’s visit; La Voz de Galicia on the 2013 apology, his career; eldiario.es and El Correo Gallego on Galicia’s debt; El Debate on his majorities and defence; ABC and Euronews on the polls; moncloa.com and El Constitucional on Vox; El Español and Público on Iran and the US; La Vanguardia on Venezuela; El Mundo; Infobae; Polymarket and Kalshi (21 October 2026).

Clarification — 21 October 2026: an earlier version misstated Feijóo’s first post under José Manuel Romay Beccaría and Galicia’s debt ratio, and quoted his 2013 apology too broadly. These passages have been corrected.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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