Migration: US-Mexico Border
Key Facts
—Who. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the Border Patrol and the military’s Joint Task Force-Southern Border.
—What. Border Patrol arrests on the southwest border fell to 8,870 in August 2026, 5% below July and 94% below the monthly average under the Biden administration, according to CBP.
—Where. The US-Mexico border, from California to Texas.
—When. CBP published the August figures in mid-September 2026. September figures are not yet out.
—US link. Troop reinforcements on both sides of the line came after gunfire at a US Coast Guard crew in Texas on 26 September.
—Prediction markets. Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, prices more than 450,000 ICE removals in fiscal year 2026 at 36% (7 October 2026, 8:03 pm ET).
—As of. 8 October 2026, 00:05 GMT.
US Border Patrol arrested 8,870 people on the southwest border in August 2026, 5% fewer than in July, according to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP). The government credits its policies, while Mexican reporting from the border points to new wall sections and more than 10,000 troops.
What We Know
CBP reported 8,870 Border Patrol apprehensions on the southwest border in August 2026. That is 5% below July, 94% below the monthly average of the Biden administration and 97% below the peak of December 2023.
Nationwide, the Border Patrol made 10,939 apprehensions in August, 3% fewer than in July, CBP said. CBP also says the Border Patrol released no one into the United States in August, the 16th straight month, against 10,186 releases on the southwest border in August 2024.
The monthly count does not fall in a straight line. CBP’s dashboard shows 6,076 arrests in January 2026, a peak of 10,011 in May and 8,870 in August.
CBP also reported seizures of 773 pounds of fentanyl and 6,724 pounds of cocaine in August. It said CBP and ICE seized more than 120,000 pounds of precursor chemicals, the raw materials used to make drugs.
Troops and Wall
More than 10,000 troops serve on the southern border under Joint Task Force-Southern Border, according to Proceso. Northern Command says they do detection, monitoring, logistics and support for barriers, not civilian law enforcement.
After gunfire at a US Coast Guard crew in Texas on 26 September, hundreds more troops moved to the Rio Grande Valley from 2 October. Northern Command said only “hundreds”, while the Pentagon gave Mexican media a figure of about 500, Mexico News Daily reports.
Mexico answered with a “mirror operation” of its own, sending 500 troops to the border, Mexico News Daily reported. We covered the Mexican deployment in Tamaulipas earlier this month.
On the wall, a federal judge in Washington, Richard Leon, refused on 14 August to halt a 62-mile (100 km) segment in Arizona known as Tucson 5. The Tohono O’odham Nation had sued to stop it, and pre-construction work such as soil sampling began in late August despite its protests.
J. Jesús Esquivel wrote in Proceso on 6 October that illegal crossings have largely stopped in the monitored areas he visited. He links that to the wall sections and the troop deployment that now overlap there.
What Prediction Markets Say
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi deportations market. Its contracts pay if ICE removals in fiscal year 2026 top a threshold. The contract for more than 450,000 removals trades at 36%, and the one for more than 500,000 at 12%. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and 172,324 contracts have traded.
The prices are bets, not polls, and they measure removals from inside the country rather than arrests at the border. The reading was taken on 7 October 2026 at 8:03 pm ET.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The CBP release we reviewed does not say how much of the fall comes from the wall, the troops, the end of releases or other policy changes. It also gives no figure for miles of new wall built in the period.
September figures have not been published. Arrest counts also cannot show how many people crossed without being caught.
What It Means for US Readers and Investors
By the government’s own measure, border arrests remain far below the Biden-era average, though they have moved by several thousand a month this year. The new troop reinforcements show that Washington still sees security risks on the line.
Troops and barriers are only part of the picture at the border, since freight and travellers cross at ports of entry. The reports we reviewed do not describe delays at the crossings.
For more on the Mexican side, see our report on Mexico’s own border arrests. Official figures for September are the next data point to watch.
More: Mexico news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many people did the Border Patrol arrest on the southwest border in August 2026?
It arrested 8,870 people, 5% fewer than in July and 94% below the monthly average of the Biden administration, according to CBP.
How many US troops are on the southern border?
More than 10,000 troops serve under Joint Task Force-Southern Border, according to Proceso. After gunfire at a Coast Guard crew in Texas on 26 September, hundreds more moved to the Rio Grande Valley.
Is the border wall still being built?
Yes. A judge refused on 14 August to halt a 62-mile (100 km) segment in Arizona called Tucson 5, and pre-construction work began in late August.
When will September border data come out?
CBP has not yet published September figures. The agency posts monthly updates after each month ends.
Sources
US Customs and Border Protection · US Department of Homeland Security · Proceso · Mexico News Daily · Arizona Capitol Times · Kalshi
Connected Coverage
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief