Uruguay Faces a Steep Population Decline by 2070

Uruguay will shrink by nearly 450,000 people by 2070, according to the country’s official statistics agency, Instituto Nacional de Estadística.

That would bring Uruguay’s population down from today’s 3.49 million to just over 3 million—reversing decades of slow growth and taking the country back to its 1985 population size.

The reason is simple: people are having fewer children, and not enough newcomers are arriving to fill the gap. Uruguay’s birth rate has dropped to 1.28 children per woman, far below the 2.1 needed to keep a population steady.

Migration is not balancing things out, with new arrivals mostly leaving again or not staying long-term. The age structure is also shifting fast. In 2024, seniors aged 65 and over make up nearly 16% of the population.

By 2070, that group will double to 32.5%. Meanwhile, the number of children under 15 will shrink from 18% to just 11.5%. That means far fewer young people entering the workforce, while the number of retirees keeps rising.

The impact is already being felt. With fewer working-age people, schools in rural areas are closing, and businesses face a shrinking pool of workers. As the population ages and shrinks, taxes and social spending will have to stretch further.

Pension and health care systems will come under strain, and the country’s ability to support its older citizens will be tested. Uruguay’s clear and steady decline is not just a demographic trend—it is a major economic and social challenge.

Businesses, politicians, and ordinary citizens will need to adapt to a future with more seniors, fewer workers, and slower economic growth.

These figures come straight from Uruguay’s national statistics agency and health authorities, reflecting a challenge now shaping the country’s future.