Sudan’s army says it has retaken a military base in Blue Nile state that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and a rebel ally claimed in late August. The news came as a UN-organised meeting in Geneva again ruled out a military solution to the Sudan war.
For US readers, the Blue Nile front borders Ethiopia, and Washington sits in the Quad group that is trying to mediate. The army and the RSF, a paramilitary group, have fought since April 2023.
Key Facts
- Who: The Sudanese army and allies against the RSF and a rebel group, SPLM-N.
- What: The army says it retook Bakori base and the nearby Ouklili area.
- Where: Blue Nile state, southeast of Damazin, near the Ethiopian border.
- When: Thursday morning, 22 October 2026, Sudan time.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket puts a Sudan ceasefire by 31 December 2026 at about 8% (23 Oct 2026, 2:22 p.m. ET).
This story is part of our coverage of the sudan war. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
Army Reverses August Loss
The army and allied forces said they retook the Bakori military base on Thursday morning, 22 October 2026. Bakori is in Qeisan locality, southeast of the state capital Damazin, and the operation also recovered the nearby Ouklili area (also spelled Akleli).
Bakori hosts the headquarters of the army’s 13th Infantry Brigade. Radio Tamazuj reported that it could not independently verify the army’s claim.
The opposing side is an alliance of the RSF and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), a rebel group active in border regions. The alliance claimed Bakori and the Sarkam base in late August.
No RSF comment was reported. No independently verified figures for deaths, injuries, prisoners or lost equipment have been released.
Wider Military Picture
Fighting also continues in Darfur and Kordofan, where drone and air strikes keep hitting towns and civilians.
A strike hit a market in El Daein, East Darfur, at about 8:30 p.m. on Wednesday, 21 October. Radio Tamazuj reported four injured people and several destroyed shops, and attributed the attack to the army.
Mashaer Mohamed al-Nourein, information and culture minister in the RSF-aligned East Darfur administration, spoke about it.
The war also spilled into Chad, where a drone attack in Bamina, Wadi-Fira province, killed four people and injured 14. Provincial official Brahim Issa Galmaye said the drone’s origin was unknown, and the RSF denied responsibility.
Geneva Talks Rule Out Military Solution
The UN-organised Sixth Consultative Meeting on Enhancing Coordination of Peace Initiatives and Efforts in Sudan closed in Geneva after opening on 21 October. Participants said the war has no military solution, and neither the army nor the RSF was represented.
They called for an urgent humanitarian truce, an end to foreign interference and new talks toward a permanent ceasefire. They backed mediation by the Quad (the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt) and the Quintet (the African Union, the European Union, IGAD, the Arab League and the United Nations).
UN Under-Secretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo told the Security Council on 16 October that neither side had shown a credible commitment to compromise. She said fighting continued, particularly in North Kordofan, South Kordofan and Blue Nile.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced a Sudan civil war ceasefire by 31 December 2026 at about 8% on 23 October 2026, with about US$119,600 traded. That price is an implied probability from real-money bets, not a poll.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Humanitarian Baseline
DiCarlo told the Security Council that drone strikes were the leading cause of civilian casualties this year. She condemned a drone strike on two clearly marked World Food Programme trucks that killed one driver.
What It Means for US Readers
Blue Nile borders Ethiopia, so a shift in the front matters for stability across the Horn of Africa and for US diplomacy there. Bakori restores an army position lost to the RSF-SPLM-N alliance about two months earlier.
The United States took part in the Geneva meeting and belongs to the Quad. Neither the warring parties nor the prediction market currently signal a ceasefire.
What Is Not Known
It is unclear whether the army can hold Bakori and Ouklili, or whether the RSF-SPLM-N alliance will counterattack. The scale of the Blue Nile fighting is also unknown, and the army’s claim has not been independently verified.
Responsibility for the Bamina drone strike remains unresolved, and no ceasefire timetable has been announced.
Sources
Anadolu Agency (citing Sudan Tribune); Asharq Al-Awsat; Arab News; Radio Tamazuj; Africanews; UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (ReliefWeb, remarks of Rosemary DiCarlo, 16 October 2026); Polymarket.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
Horn of Africa and the Red Sea
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- Somalia Explained: Al-Shabaab, Somaliland, the Ports and the Fight Over a 2026 Vote
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Sudanese army recapture in Blue Nile state?
The army says it retook the Bakori military base and the nearby Ouklili area on Thursday, 22 October 2026. An alliance of the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North had claimed Bakori in late August.
What did the Geneva meeting on Sudan conclude?
Participants said the war has no military solution and backed mediation by the Quad and the Quintet. No ceasefire or timetable was announced, and neither the army nor the RSF attended.
What are the Quad and the Quintet?
The Quad is the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. The Quintet is the African Union, the European Union, IGAD, the Arab League and the United Nations.
What do prediction markets say about a Sudan ceasefire?
Polymarket gave a ceasefire by 31 December 2026 an implied probability of about 8% on 23 October 2026. Those prices are bets, not polls or official forecasts.