Sheinbaum Plans US Envoy Talks, Says Crossings Fell 98%
POLITICS · MEXICO
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico is the largest US goods trading partner and the main transit route for fentanyl reaching American cities.
- —Why it matters Security cooperation with Washington shapes US tariff threats, troop deployments on the border and the mood of American investors in Mexico.
- —Why now Thursday’s meeting with US Ambassador Johnson was about trade, not security, Sheinbaum said, so a separate meeting is planned.
- —What happened On Friday 9 October, Sheinbaum said she agreed to meet Johnson and Foreign Secretary Roberto Velasco “soon” on specific issues.
- —The numbers She said irregular border crossings are down 98% and US fentanyl seizures down 75%. Neither figure has been independently confirmed.
- —What it means for you No policy changed on Friday. Border rules, tariffs and travel conditions stay as they were.
- —Still open No date, venue or agenda for the new meeting. The Querétaro police academy dispute remains unanswered in public.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives a US strike on Mexico by 31 December a 4% chance (10 October, 2:05 p.m. ET).
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Friday 9 October she will soon meet US Ambassador Johnson separately on security and other issues.
At her morning press conference, she said Thursday’s talks with Ronald Johnson at the National Palace were about trade, not security. A police academy dispute and border questions were not raised, she said.
For Americans, the follow-up matters. Washington links security cooperation to trade relief and to keeping US troops on its own side of the border.
Sheinbaum, Mexico’s president since October 2024, leads a left-wing government built on the Morena movement. Ronald Johnson is the US ambassador to Mexico and President Donald Trump’s envoy in Mexico City.
The new meeting will also include Roberto Velasco, Mexico’s foreign secretary. No date has been announced.
What Sheinbaum Said About Thursday
Asked whether the meeting covered border security, an alleged drone attack or a police academy in Querétaro, Sheinbaum said it did not. She described it as a meeting with business leaders that the ambassador attended.
“Johnson brought the delegation of the American Chamber,” she said, referring to a group of US companies with operations in Mexico. The talks covered company requests, Mexico’s revenue law and the investment climate, according to the official transcript.
“We agreed to meet soon with the foreign secretary and the ambassador to look at specific issues,” she said. When a reporter pressed her, she added that there would be “a particular meeting”.
El Universal, a Mexico City daily, reported the same account. It noted Sheinbaum’s recent questions over the role of US officials at the Querétaro academy. Background on both meetings: Mexico’s Sheinbaum Meets US Envoy, CEOs on 8 October and Mexico Questions US Envoy on US$1.6M Police Academy.
The Security Figures She Cited
Sheinbaum said she did raise security results during Thursday’s talks, in front of the ambassador and the executives. She gave three figures.
First, she said the number of people crossing the border irregularly has fallen 98%. She credited joint work, including Mexican efforts to persuade migrants not to travel to the northern border.
Second, she said fentanyl seizures in the United States have fallen 75% “because there are operations on this side”. She did not give the period or the data source for either figure.
Third, she said Mexico sent about 94 major drug bosses to the United States almost a year ago. She first said “92 or 94”, then settled on 94.
She also said “mirror operations” now run on both sides of the border for the first time, because Trump decided to deploy the US Army there. Mexico also detains people wanted by the FBI and sends them north, she said.
All of this happens, she stressed, under four principles: territorial integrity, respect for sovereignty, mutual trust and “coordination without subordination”.
Sovereignty and the Calderón Remark
Later in the same briefing, a reporter suggested that the ambassador’s attitude showed he did not know Mexico’s constitution. Sheinbaum did not comment on Johnson directly.
She said her defence of sovereignty is “not rhetoric” but a principle. She accused the government of Felipe Calderón, president from 2006 to 2012, of letting US agencies operate freely in Mexico.
The remark signals the limit she sets on cooperation. Joint operations are welcome, she argues, while foreign agents acting on their own are not.
On trade, she said Mexico wants the United States to cut the tariffs on cars and steel that remain in place. Those duties fall under Section 232, a US law that allows import tariffs on national-security grounds.
What It Means for You
For US companies with plants in Mexico, Friday changed nothing on paper. Tariffs on Mexican cars and steel stay in force, and trade talks continue.
The planned meeting matters because security and trade are linked in Washington’s approach. Calm security talks with US Ambassador Johnson make tariff relief easier to argue for; a public row makes it harder.
For travellers and cross-border workers, no new border rule was announced. Crossings, visas and port hours are unchanged.
For investors, the tone was steady. Sheinbaum praised the cooperation and repeated her sovereignty line, the same balance she has held for months.
What Is Not Known
No date, venue or agenda has been given for the meeting with Johnson and Velasco. No US Embassy account of Thursday’s talks could be found.
The 98% and 75% figures came without a baseline period or source. They have not been independently confirmed.
It is also not known whether the Querétaro academy will be on the agenda, or whether the embassy will respond publicly.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket bettors put the chance of a US strike on Mexican soil by 31 December at 4% (2:05 p.m. ET, Saturday 10 October). These are bets, not polls. The contract prices the outcome that Sheinbaum’s “coordination without subordination” is meant to rule out: unilateral US military action in Mexico.
That contract has drawn about US$765,000 in trading volume, and the wider series of dated contracts about US$3.5 million. The price has slipped about two points over the past week. No matching Kalshi market was active.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Ronald Johnson?
Ronald Johnson is the US ambassador to Mexico and President Donald Trump’s envoy in Mexico City. He attended Thursday’s meeting at the National Palace with a delegation of US business leaders.
Why is Sheinbaum planning a separate meeting with the ambassador?
She said Thursday’s meeting dealt with trade and investment, so security and other specific issues were not discussed. She agreed to meet the ambassador and Foreign Secretary Roberto Velasco soon.
Are the 98% and 75% figures confirmed?
No. Sheinbaum cited them on 9 October without a baseline period or data source. They have not been independently confirmed.
Sources: Presidency of Mexico, transcript of the 9 October 2026 press conference; El Universal, “Sheinbaum prevé reunirse pronto con el embajador Johnson y el canciller Velasco” (9 October 2026); Polymarket market prices, 10 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief