MAURITANIA · ECONOMY · IMF
Key Facts
- —What changed The International Monetary Fund now projects average consumer price inflation in Mauritania of 8.0% in 2026, up from 1.6% in 2025, with December prices 9.0% higher than a year earlier.
- —Growth Real output is projected to grow 4.4% in 2026, below the 4.7% the IMF projected in June when it approved a new US$95.8 million program for the country.
- —The backdrop The fund’s global outlook puts world inflation at 4.7% this year, driven largely by higher energy and food prices, and it lists tensions in the Middle East among the risks.
- —The economy Mauritania’s output is projected at about US$14.3 billion in 2026, with public debt at 38.3% of output and a current account deficit of 7.8%.
- —The US link US firm Kosmos Energy is a partner in the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim gas project, and the first US business mission to Mauritania opened in early October.
Consumer prices in Mauritania are set to rise 8.0% on average this year, up from 1.6% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook data released on Tuesday, 13 October. The fund also trimmed its 2026 growth projection for the Atlantic gas, gold and iron ore exporter to 4.4%, from the 4.7% it projected in June.
For American readers, the shift matters because the US company Kosmos Energy is a partner in Mauritania’s offshore gas project and the country runs an IMF loan program. The new numbers also arrive one week after the US Embassy in Nouakchott welcomed the first US business mission to the country and called closer economic ties a top priority.
What the IMF Projects
The October data put Mauritania’s real growth at 4.4% in both 2026 and 2027, up from 3.6% in 2025, before a jump to 5.8% in 2028. In June, when its board approved new 42-month arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility, the IMF projected 4.7% growth for 2026.
Inflation is the bigger change in the new figures. Average consumer prices are projected to rise 8.0% in 2026 and about 7% in 2027, and prices in December 2026 are expected to be 9.0% higher than a year earlier.
The IMF puts the size of the economy at about US$14.3 billion in 2026, with public debt falling to 38.3% of output from 40.4% in 2025. The current account deficit, the gap in Mauritania’s trade and income flows with the rest of the world, is projected to widen to 7.8% of output from 5.8%.
The budget stays close to balance in the projections, with a small surplus in 2026 after a deficit of 0.3% of output in 2025. In June, the IMF urged the authorities to “sustain disciplined fiscal policy to help stabilize public debt and preserve external buffers.”
Why Prices Are Rising
The IMF database gives no country-specific reason for the jump, but the fund’s global outlook points to energy and food. Deniz Igan, a division chief in the IMF research department, said world inflation will reach 4.7% this year, “largely reflecting higher energy and food prices.”
She warned that “tensions in the Middle East could persist or escalate,” and that “many energy importing and lower income economies are facing a much more challenging environment.” The fund now expects the world economy to grow 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
Shoppers in the capital already feel it at the market stalls. The Nouakchott news site Sahara Medias found tomatoes selling on Monday, 12 October, for 3,500 old ouguiyas, or 350 new ouguiyas (about US$8.84 at the 13 October closing rate of 39.59 ouguiyas per dollar), a kilogram at the city’s Morocco market after traders reported a shortage.
Who Is Involved
President Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani, a former army chief of staff first elected in 2019, reappointed Prime Minister El Moctar Ould Djay on 9 October after the government resigned. The new cabinet, named the next day, includes Finance Minister Codioro Moussa N’Guenore and Minister of Economic Affairs and Development Mohamedou Ould M’Haimid.
The International Monetary Fund lends to governments with balance of payments needs in return for policy commitments, and checks those commitments in regular reviews. Its new program with Mauritania is worth US$95.8 million over 42 months, and in June the board also closed the fifth and final review of a separate climate resilience facility.
What It Means for US Readers
The State Department’s 2026 investment climate report lists “U.S. firm Kosmos Energy” among the large extractive companies in Mauritania, alongside BP, Kinross Tasiast and the state miner SNIM. The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim gas project, developed jointly with Senegal, began production in December 2024 and shipped its first liquefied natural gas in April 2025.
The same report says the ouguiya floats within a band of plus or minus 5% around a reference rate tied to a basket that is 80% US dollar and 20% euro. In June, the IMF told the authorities to “deepen the foreign exchange market to enhance exchange rate flexibility as an external shock absorber.”
The US business mission, which the embassy reported on 6 October, was set to explore energy, mining, agriculture, infrastructure, healthcare and technology. Faster inflation raises local wage and supply costs for any American firm that follows, while the report also points to the undeveloped BirAllah field, estimated to hold 60 to 80 trillion cubic feet of gas.
What Is Not Known
The IMF has not published an explanation for the jump in its Mauritania inflation forecast, and the latest monthly figures from the national statistics agency could not be checked on its website. It is also not known whether the government will adjust fuel or food prices to protect households.
No comment on the forecasts from Finance Minister Codioro Moussa N’Guenore could be found. No date has been announced for the first review of the new IMF program, which will show whether the projections have changed again.
Frequently Asked Questions
What inflation does the IMF expect in Mauritania in 2026?
The IMF projects average consumer price inflation of 8.0% in 2026, up from 1.6% in 2025. It expects prices in December 2026 to be 9.0% higher than a year earlier.
Why are prices rising in Mauritania?
The IMF does not give a country-specific reason in its data. Its global outlook points to higher energy and food prices and warns that tensions in the Middle East could persist or escalate.
How fast will Mauritania’s economy grow?
The IMF projects real growth of 4.4% in 2026 and 2027, up from 3.6% in 2025. In June it had projected 4.7% growth for 2026.
Is a US company involved in Mauritania’s gas project?
Yes, the State Department lists US firm Kosmos Energy among the large extractive companies in Mauritania. Kosmos and its partners are developing the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim gas field off Mauritania and Senegal, and the project shipped its first liquefied natural gas in April 2025.
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, Mauritania growth and inflation; IMF, World Economic Outlook database, October 2026, Mauritania debt, budget and current account; IMF Media Center, World Economic Outlook, 13 October 2026; IMF, press release on Mauritania, 24 June 2026; US Department of State, 2026 Investment Climate Statements, Mauritania; US Embassy in Mauritania, 6 October 2026; Agence Mauritanienne d’Information, new government, 10 October 2026; Kosmos Energy, Mauritania; Sahara Medias, 12 October 2026. All retrieved 14 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief