IMF Cuts Brazil Growth Forecast to 2.2% From 2.4%
BRAZIL · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and a major exporter of oil, iron ore and soybeans, with big companies traded in New York.
- —What happened On Monday evening, 12 October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its Brazil growth forecast for 2026 to 2.2%, from 2.4% in July.
- —Next year The IMF now expects Brazil’s economy to grow 1.9% in 2027, down from 2.2%, after growth of 2.3% in 2025.
- —Why The IMF blames interest rates kept high to bring inflation back to target, less support from government budgets and global uncertainty.
- —The US comparison The IMF kept its US forecast at 2.3% for 2026, so Brazil is now expected to grow slightly slower than the United States.
- —Prediction markets On Polymarket, the most-backed outcome for Brazil’s third-quarter growth is 0.0% to 0.2%, at 25.5% (13 October, 2:43 a.m. ET).
- —Still open Brazil’s statistics agency has not yet published third-quarter output, the first hard data to test the slowdown.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its Brazil growth forecast for 2026 to 2.2% on Monday evening, 12 October, down from 2.4% in July. It also lowered its outlook for 2027 to 1.9%, from 2.2%.
The new figures put Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, just below the 2.3% growth the IMF expects for the United States this year. For US investors in Brazilian shares, bonds or the real, Brazil’s currency, the message is a slower economy into 2027.
What the IMF Changed for Brazil
The IMF is a Washington-based institution that lends to governments in financial trouble and monitors their economies. Twice a year it publishes the World Economic Outlook, a forecast for most of the world’s economies.
The October edition came out as finance ministers gathered in Bangkok, Thailand, for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings. Folha de S.Paulo and O Globo, two of Brazil’s largest newspapers, reported the Brazil figures that evening.
Both papers report the new forecast: 2.2% for 2026, down from 2.4% in July, and 1.9% for 2027, down from 2.2%.
In April, the IMF had expected only 1.9% growth for 2026 and 2% for 2027.
Brazil’s economy grew 2.3% in 2025, according to IBGE, the national statistics agency. The new forecast therefore points to a gradual slowdown, not a recession.
Why Brazil Is Slowing
Both newspapers say the IMF names three causes behind the lower Brazil growth forecast. They are high interest rates aimed at inflation, less budget support and global uncertainty.
Brazil’s central bank, the Banco Central do Brasil, sets the benchmark Selic interest rate, now 13.75% a year. The bank lowered it to that level from 14% in mid-September.
High rates make credit expensive, which tends to hold back spending by families and investment by companies, O Globo notes. Less budget support means public spending will add less to growth than before.
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 209,066.90 | +1.38% | +21.85% | 206,220.24 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
How Brazil Compares With the United States
The IMF kept its US forecast at 2.3% for 2026, Folha reports, and the business daily Valor Econômico gives the same figure. The Brazil growth forecast of 2.2% now sits just below it.
The IMF expects Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole to grow 2.3% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, O Globo reports. The region should pick up speed next year while Brazil, its biggest economy, loses pace.
For the world economy, the IMF raised its 2026 forecast to 3.1%, from 3%, and kept 2027 at 3.4%. China, Brazil’s largest trading partner, should grow 4.5% this year, down from 4.6% in July.
The World Bank, the IMF’s sister lender in Washington, publishes its own forecasts. In June, it cut its 2026 Brazil growth forecast to 1.9%.
What It Means for You
For US investors, a slower Brazil can weigh on company profits, from banks to retailers. Several large Brazilian firms, including the oil company Petrobras and the miner Vale, have shares traded in New York.
Brazil’s high interest rates still pay well for bond investors, but the IMF names those same rates as a main reason growth is cooling.
Brazil also votes in a presidential runoff on Sunday, 25 October. Whoever wins will start a new term in January, facing the slower growth the IMF now expects for 2027.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket is a platform where people bet real money on future events. By 13 October, 2:43 a.m. ET, its market on Brazil’s third-quarter growth had drawn about US$32,800 in bets.
The most-backed outcome, growth of 0.0% to 0.2% from the previous quarter, stood at 25.5%. The chance of a fall of 0.1% to 0.3% dropped 11 points in a day, to 16.5%.
Kalshi is a betting exchange regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Its most-backed band for US growth in 2026 is 2.1% to 2.5%, at 41%, a range that includes the IMF’s 2.3% forecast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The IMF’s full October report, with its detailed country tables for Brazil, is scheduled for release on Tuesday, 13 October.
IBGE has not yet published third-quarter output, the first hard data to test the new Brazil growth forecast. How the next government will handle the budget after the 25 October runoff is also not yet known.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the IMF’s new Brazil growth forecast?
The IMF now expects Brazil’s economy to grow 2.2% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. In July it had forecast 2.4% and 2.2%.
Why did the IMF cut Brazil’s forecast?
The IMF cut its Brazil growth forecast because of interest rates kept high to fight inflation, less budget support and global uncertainty. High rates make loans expensive and slow spending.
Will Brazil grow faster than the United States in 2026?
Not according to the IMF. It expects 2.3% growth for the US and 2.2% for Brazil this year.
Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook October 2026 page, 13 October 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, Selic target series, 13 October 2026; IBGE, quarterly national accounts (GDP growth 2025), 13 October 2026; Folha de S.Paulo, 12 October 2026; O Globo, 12 October 2026; Valor Econômico, 12 October 2026; InfoMoney (IMF April and July 2026 forecasts), 8 July 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief