CUBA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —What is happening Cuba’s official price index for September, published on Wednesday, 14 October, shows prices up 3.37% in the month and 28.44% in a year, while the average state wage remains under US$10 a month.
- —Why it matters Food accounts for nearly three quarters of the monthly rise, and Havana blames US pressure on fuel supplies for the shortages, though the data do not show how much of the rise that explains.
- —The numbers Prices rose 3.37% in September and 24.85% from January to September, and the average state wage of 7,354 pesos is about US$9.25 a month at the informal rate of 795 pesos per US$.
- —Who is who ONEI, the Oficina Nacional de Estadística e Información, is Cuba’s official statistics office, and the Banco Central de Cuba is the central bank, whose official rates differ from the informal market rate.
- —What to watch The informal rate stood at about 795 pesos per US$ on Wednesday, and ONEI’s October price index, expected in November, will show whether prices keep climbing.
- —Power Index Cuba ranks 14th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 22.5 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you A US$100 gift to a relative is worth about 79,500 pesos at the informal rate, nearly 11 months of the average state wage, while US agencies set the rules for travel and transfers to Cuba.
Cuba inflation reached 28.44% in September, official figures show. The average state wage of 7,354 pesos (about US$9.25 at the informal rate) is below US$10 a month.
Cuba inflation rose to 28.44% in the year to September, up from 25.19% in August, the statistics office ONEI said. Prices climbed 3.37% in September alone and 24.85% since January.
The data matter to US readers because Washington’s pressure on Cuba’s fuel supplies is part of the debate over the island’s slump. A US$100 gift to a relative converts to about 79,500 pesos at the informal rate, nearly 11 times the average state wage.
What the Cuba Inflation Data Show
The Oficina Nacional de Estadística e Información (ONEI), Cuba’s official statistics office, published the September consumer price index on Wednesday, 14 October. Diario de Cuba, OnCuba and 14ymedio all give the same monthly, cumulative and annual rates.
Annual inflation of 28.44% compares with 25.19% in August, when prices rose 4.92% in the month. September’s monthly rise of 3.37% was smaller, but the annual rate still climbed 3.25 percentage points.
Food and non-alcoholic drinks made up 73.39% of the monthly increase, Diario de Cuba and OnCuba reported from the ONEI data. Powdered soft drinks rose 17.73% in the month, sausages and hot dogs 11.72% and pork 10.69%.
Over twelve months, food and non-alcoholic drinks cost 42.66% more, restaurants and hotels 39.11% more and transport 24.80% more. Pork, eggs and ham pushed the monthly food increase most, Diario de Cuba and OnCuba said.
What the Average State Wage Buys
ONEI’s state sector report, released on Tuesday, 13 October, puts the average monthly wage at 7,354 pesos (about US$9.25). EFE, the Spanish news agency, says in a dispatch relayed by OnCuba that this is 6.12% above ONEI’s figure published in April.
Construction pays the most, at 14,743 pesos (about US$18.54) a month, Diario de Cuba, EFE and 14ymedio all say. Other community, association and personal services pay 5,795 pesos (about US$7.29), Diario de Cuba and EFE say.
14ymedio called the 6.12% rise small beside annual inflation of about 25%. The Rio Times explainer on Cuba’s minimum wage shows how the gap looks at the lowest pay level.
Which Exchange Rate This Article Uses
Pesos are converted at the informal rate of 795 per US$, as shown by El Toque and CiberCuba on 14 October. Both are Cuban news sites that track informal market quotes.
The central bank’s official rates differ from the informal one, and its rate table could not be opened for this article. The under-US$10 wage therefore holds at the informal rate used here, and no official conversion is given.
OnCuba, citing EFE, says informal and private markets are now the main source of supplies for millions of Cubans. That is why the informal rate, not the official one, is used here, as Diario de Cuba and EFE also do.
Why Real Inflation May Be Higher
The index covers the formal market, while a growing share of household buying happens in private and informal markets, OnCuba wrote. Prices there tend to be higher and more volatile, and Cuban economist Pedro Monreal says official statistics may understate the true rise.
14ymedio notes that ONEI’s method dates from 2010, which it says distorts the telecommunications part of the index. Alternative estimates, such as the Hanke Inflation Dashboard of US economist Steve Hanke, put price growth in July substantially higher, OnCuba wrote.
What It Means for US Readers
OnCuba, citing EFE, says the September price rise coincides with tighter US limits on fuel supplies to the island. It quotes Energy and Mines Minister Vicente de la O Levy saying no Cuban state company has secured a fuel contract.
In OnCuba’s account, Washington says the measures aim to limit the Cuban government’s resources and force economic opening and political change. Havana calls the policy economic strangulation and blames it for the fuel shortages.
Anyone sending money to relatives should note that the informal market rate is about 795 pesos per US$, unlike official rates. Rules for travel and transfers to Cuba are set by US agencies, so check current guidance before sending money.
What Is Not Known
ONEI’s own website could not be opened for this article, so the figures rest on three outlets that agree with one another. The central bank’s site could not be opened either, so no official rate is used.
It is unclear whether 7,354 pesos (about US$9.25) is the August wage or the January to August average. EFE and Diario de Cuba say August, while 14ymedio says January to August.
The outlets also differ on which sectors pay least, with Diario de Cuba naming sugar and EFE naming education and community services. No forecast for the September figure was found, and the official index does not fully capture informal markets.
These data do not show how much of the rise comes from US fuel limits and how much from domestic shortages. No official comment from Havana on the September figures was found.
What Comes Next
ONEI has published its monthly index mid-month lately, with August’s released on 15 September and September’s on 14 October. The October figure should follow in November, though no date was found, and wage data come less often.
The informal dollar is the daily signal, at about 795 pesos per US$ on Wednesday after about 750 in late September. A further rise would cut the dollar value of the average wage again.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Cuba’s inflation rate?
Annual inflation was 28.44% in September, up from 25.19% in August, according to the statistics office ONEI. Prices rose 3.37% in the month and 24.85% from January.
What is the average wage in Cuba in US dollars?
ONEI’s state sector report puts the average monthly wage at 7,354 pesos, about US$9.25 at the informal rate of 795 per US$. Official central bank rates differ from the informal one, so the dollar figure depends on the rate used.
Why do Cuban wages convert to different dollar amounts?
Cuba has official central bank rates and an informal market rate of about 795 pesos per US$, and the two differ. The outlets reviewed use the informal rate because informal and private markets are now the main source of supplies.
What is pushing Cuban prices up?
Food made up 73.39% of the monthly rise, with pork, eggs and ham among the biggest contributors. OnCuba, citing EFE, says the rise coincides with tighter US limits on fuel supplies.
Is Cuba’s official inflation figure reliable?
Cuban economist Pedro Monreal says it may understate the true rise because it covers mainly the formal market. ONEI’s figures are the official benchmark, and three outlets that cite them agree on the numbers.
Sources: Diario de Cuba, 15 October 2026; OnCuba (EFE), 14 October 2026; 14ymedio, 14 October 2026; OnCuba (EFE) on wages, 14 October 2026; 14ymedio on wages, 13 October 2026; CiberCuba, informal market close, 14 October 2026; El Toque, informal market rate, 14 October 2026; OnCuba on fuel imports, 13 October 2026; Cubanet (EFE), August inflation, 16 September 2026; elDinero (EFE), August inflation, 15 September 2026; Diario Panorama, August inflation, 17 September 2026 (all accessed 15 October 2026; ONEI and the Banco Central de Cuba websites could not be opened).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief