CUBA · TRADE
Key Facts
- —The country Cuba is a Caribbean island nation and the long-standing target of a US trade embargo.
- —Why it matters Falling export income leaves Havana with less hard currency to buy fuel and food, which deepens the strain on the island’s economy.
- —Why now The United Nations regional commission published its annual trade outlook on Thursday 15 October 2026, and the Cuba figures drew wide attention by Sunday 18 October.
- —What happened The commission forecast that the value of Cuba’s goods exports will fall 13% in 2026, while the region’s goods exports rise 20%.
- —The numbers Cuban goods exports already fell 10% in the first half of 2026, after a 10% fall a year earlier, and goods imports fell 3%.
- —What it means for you Few US firms trade with Cuba under the embargo, so the main effects for US readers are on fuel, flights and travel plans.
- —Still open What Cuba actually exported in dollars, which products fell most, and whether the final 2026 figure lands near the forecast.
- —Power Index Cuba ranks 14th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 22.5 points (October 2026 edition).
Cuba goods exports are forecast to fall 13% in 2026, according to a report from a United Nations regional commission. The report, published on Thursday 15 October 2026, expects goods exports across Latin America and the Caribbean to rise 20%.
For US readers the gap matters because the US trade embargo stays in place while Cuba earns less foreign currency. It also contrasts with a 26% export rise forecast for Mexico, a major US trading partner.
Diario de Cuba and Cubanet, two Cuban news sites, reported the Cuba figure on Sunday 18 October. Our report on the Mexico Exports to Jump 26%, UN Body Says covers the same outlook from the other end of the table.
What the Forecast Says About Cuba Goods Exports
The forecast comes from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, known as ECLAC or Cepal. It is a United Nations body based in Santiago, Chile, and its trade outlook for 2026 was published on Thursday 15 October.
It projects that the value of Cuba’s goods exports will fall 13% over the whole of 2026. Among the region’s 33 economies, only Saint Kitts and Nevis, Dominica and Panama are forecast to fall further.
Grenada, at minus 6%, is the only other economy in the group of five whose goods exports are forecast to shrink. Panama’s La Estrella and Colombia’s La República listed the same five names on 15 October.
The outlook also gives first-half data for Cuba, as reported by Diario de Cuba and Cubanet. The value of Cuban goods exports fell 10% in the first half of 2026, after another 10% fall in the first half of 2025.
Cuban goods imports tell a similar story of shrinking trade. They fell 3% in the first half of 2026, after rising 13% in the first half of 2025.
How Cuba Compares With the Region
The commission expects the value of the region’s goods exports to rise 20% in 2026, the fastest growth since the rebound of 2021. Prices are forecast to rise 11% and volumes 9%.
Regional goods imports are forecast to rise 16% in value. Twenty-eight of the 33 economies are expected to export more, and 16 of them by double digits.
Peru leads with a forecast rise of 30%, followed by Mexico at 26% and Bolivia at 23%. The Bahamas, Paraguay and Argentina are each forecast to gain 19%, while Belize and Venezuela are put at 17%.
Against that table, Cuba sits in a small group of five economies forecast to contract. Diario de Cuba quoted the commission as blaming economy-specific factors for those contractions, including internal production limits.
The same passage, as quoted by Diario de Cuba, also cites energy market developments and lower exportable supply in some sectors. The sources reviewed do not say which of these applies most to Cuba.
What Lies Behind the Fall
The coverage reviewed does not split Cuba’s export decline by product. Infobae, in a report on the commission’s separate Cuba economic forecast, pointed to mining and sugar as areas of weakness.
Infobae reported that nickel output fell 17% in 2025 to 25,240 tonnes, with cobalt down 15%. It also said operations of Canadian miner Sherritt International at the Moa nickel and cobalt mine were halted in 2026, which it attributed to a lack of fuel.
Infobae added that the 2024/25 sugar harvest produced under 150,000 tonnes, against a state plan of about 280,000 tonnes. Cuba has imported more sugar than it exports since 2023, it reported.
Fuel shortages run through these accounts, a theme we covered in Cuba Energy Crisis Explained: Why the Grid Keeps Failing. The commission’s own export forecast, as reported, does not link the 13% figure to any single cause.
A Wider Economic Slide
Exports are one part of a broader contraction. Infobae reported on 18 October that the commission projects Cuba’s real economic output to shrink 10.3% in 2026, the sharpest fall since 2020.
Infobae listed earlier declines of 1.9% in 2023, 1.1% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025. It also said the commission expects a further 5.1% fall in 2027.
Tourism, another source of foreign currency, is also shrinking. Diario de Cuba reported 450,353 international visitors from January to August 2026, equal to 35.6% of the same period of 2025.
That is 813,979 fewer visitors than a year earlier, according to Diario de Cuba. The commission left Cuba, Barbados and Venezuela out of its services-trade projections because it lacks complete data.
What It Means for You
Under the US embargo, most American companies cannot trade freely with Cuba, so direct exposure to these export figures is small. The main effects reach US readers through sanctions policy, Caribbean shipping and travel.
Weak export income limits what Cuba can pay for imported fuel and food, which is why shortages feature in so much coverage. Travellers should read our report on Cuba Airports Lack Jet Fuel Until 1 November before booking flights.
For the wider picture of the island’s place in the region, see Cuba in Latin America, Its Role, Weight and Alliances. A forecast is an expectation, so the final 2026 trade figures may differ.
What Is Not Known
We could not open the full ECLAC report, because the commission’s website blocked our access. The headline regional figures were read in its press release, and the Cuba figures rest on four news outlets that cite the report.
The sources do not give the dollar value of Cuba’s goods exports, so the forecast cannot be turned into a US$ amount. They also do not show which products drove the first-half fall of 10%.
It is not known how the commission treats Cuba’s official statistics, or how reliable the underlying data are. The commission itself left Cuba out of its services projections for incomplete data.
The final 2026 result will show whether the forecast of minus 13% was too pessimistic or too mild. The first-half fall of 10% is the only outturn figure the sources give.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did ECLAC forecast for Cuba goods exports?
It forecast that the value of Cuban goods exports will fall 13% in 2026. The report was published on Thursday 15 October 2026.
How does Cuba compare with the rest of Latin America?
The region’s goods exports are forecast to rise 20% in 2026, while Cuba is forecast to fall 13%. Only Saint Kitts and Nevis, Dominica and Panama are forecast to fall further.
Have Cuban exports already fallen this year?
Yes, the value of Cuban goods exports fell 10% in the first half of 2026, as reported by Diario de Cuba and Cubanet. That followed a 10% fall in the first half of 2025.
Why are Cuba goods exports falling?
The coverage reviewed does not name a single cause for the 13% forecast. The commission cites economy-specific factors for the group of falling economies, including internal production limits and energy markets.
What does it mean for US readers?
Under the US embargo, few American firms trade with Cuba, so the effect is indirect. It shows how little foreign currency Cuba earns, which feeds fuel shortages and travel disruption.
Sources: ECLAC press release, 15 October 2026; Diario de Cuba, 18 October 2026; Cubanet, 18 October 2026; La Estrella de Panamá, 15 October 2026; La República, 15 October 2026; Infobae, 18 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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