Brazil Stocks Rose 0.5% as Petrobras Jumped 4% | Morning Call, Oct 19
Key Facts
- IGP-10 inflation lands at 8:00 BRT (noon in Lisbon), after a 1.47% monthly rise in September, and a hot October print would test the market’s bets on a November rate cut.
- The Selic path stays the market’s anchor, with the central bank’s Focus survey at 8:25 BRT updating economists’ rate, inflation and currency forecasts ahead of the Copom meeting on 3–4 November.
- Petrobras carries extra weight today after its preferred shares gained 4.0% on Friday on heavy trading of roughly R$3.3 billion (about US$655 million).
- Wall Street fell on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 1.09% and the Nasdaq down 2.1%, which could weigh on Brazil’s open.
- Friday’s close had the Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, at 205,430 (+0.54%) and the dollar at R$5.06, with the real firming 0.67%.
- Prediction markets price a 25-basis-point Selic cut at the Copom’s 3–4 November meeting at 90.5% on Polymarket and 86% on Kalshi (as of 11:18 pm ET on 18 October).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78.6% · Lula 21.5% (US$188 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 80% · Lula 21%
As of 18 October, 11:20 pm ET (04:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Today’s Focus
Brazil’s market opens Monday with two domestic catalysts: IGP-10 inflation at 8:00 BRT (12:00 Lisbon, 7:00 am US Eastern) and the central bank’s Focus survey at 8:25 BRT. Both feed into expectations for the Selic, the benchmark interest rate, ahead of the Copom meeting on 3–4 November.
IGP-10 is a wholesale-driven inflation gauge from the FGV think tank, and it rose 1.47% in September after falling 0.51% in August. A stickier October number would weaken bets on a rate cut, which pressures shares that thrive on cheaper credit.
Petrobras is the standout liquidity story after Friday’s roughly R$3.3 billion (about US$655 million) in preferred share turnover and a 4.0% gain. The state-controlled oil major matters to US investors who hold its New York-listed shares.
The open will lean on macro data and the spillover from Wall Street, where the VIX, the US fear gauge, jumped 21% on Friday to 19.99.
What matters today. Whether IGP-10 and the Focus survey reinforce or soften expectations for the Selic, and how Petrobras trades on heavy volume.
Today’s Economic Events
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 205,430 | +0.54% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,659 | -1.09% |
| USD/BRL | 5.0627 | -0.67% |
Source: market close, 16 October 2026.
01 The setup in one read
B3 opens Monday with two domestic data points that matter for the Selic path: IGP-10 inflation at 8:00 BRT and the central bank’s Focus survey at 8:25 BRT. Both shape whether traders keep betting on a rate cut at the Copom meeting on 3–4 November.
IGP-10 is a wholesale-driven inflation gauge from the FGV think tank, and it rose 1.47% in September after falling 0.51% in August. A softer October reading could give rate-sensitive shares like retailers and homebuilders a small tailwind, while a stickier number would keep pressure on the Selic.
Petrobras is the single biggest liquidity story after Friday’s roughly R$3.3 billion (about US$655 million) in preferred share turnover and a 4.0% gain. The state-controlled oil major matters to US investors who hold its New York-listed shares.
Wall Street’s Friday sell-off adds a global drag. The S&P 500 fell 1.09%, the Nasdaq 2.1% and the VIX volatility gauge jumped 21% to 19.99.
The evidence points to a domestic-data morning, with IGP-10 and Focus as the main swing factors for B3’s rate-sensitive names. The market has no published forecast for the October IGP-10 here, so the Focus survey’s median Selic path is the variable to watch for any hawkish drift.
02 Where Brazil is set to open
| Instrument | Last close | Indicated | Watch today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 205,430 | — | 205,000 round-number level; IGP-10 and Focus rate path |
| USD/BRL | R$5.06 | — | R$5.00–R$5.10 range; inflation and Selic expectations |
| Petrobras PN | R$59.68 (+4.0%) | — | Liquidity signals, oil tape |
| Magazine Luiza | R$11.11 (+6.9%) | — | IGP-10 and Selic path reaction |
The table shows a market awaiting domestic data rather than chasing Friday’s close. The Ibovespa rose 0.54% on Friday, while the real firmed 0.67% to R$5.06 per US$ (RT close).
Petrobras preferred shares are the flagship row because Friday’s heavy turnover makes them the most likely source of opening volume and direction. Rate-sensitive retail names will move on the IGP-10 and Focus signals more than any single corporate story. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
IBOV
205,430.33
+0.54%
+21.85%
204,324.26
168,310
167,142
—
USD/BRL
5.16
+0.01%
-5.13%
5.16
5.18
5.14
—
EUR/BRL
5.95
+1.01%
-5.83%
5.89
5.98
5.94
—
SELIC
14.00%
—
—
—
—
—
BRENT
88.88
-0.03%
+34.42%
88.91
90.07
88.12
29,713
WTI
83.11
-0.11%
+31.57%
83.20
84.35
82.40
166,848
IRON ORE
161.91
—
+58.10%
161.91
161.91
1
GOLD
4,461
+1.78%
+33.20%
4,383
4,503
4,421
139,824
SILVER
65.59
+1.26%
+73.05%
64.77
66.98
64.81
46,406
LITHIUM
75.20
+1.47%
+62.95%
74.11
75.80
75.08
89,275
SOY
1,184
+3.20%
+17.05%
1,148
1,199
1,168
163,179
CORN
480.50
+10.02%
+29.34%
436.75
480.75
459.50
341,248
WHEAT
655.00
+3.93%
+29.70%
630.25
657.75
631.50
128,793
COFFEE
317.25
-5.51%
+0.67%
335.75
321.20
313.55
21,747
SUGAR
16.43
-1.79%
-3.01%
16.73
17.11
16.22
171,992
ORANGE JUICE
138.55
-0.47%
-45.38%
139.20
141.05
137.50
703
COTTON
85.03
+2.33%
+26.78%
83.09
82.90
81.96
16,546
BEEF
223.60
-3.93%
-5.18%
232.75
226.40
223.00
16,126
CATTLE
339.10
-3.16%
-1.82%
350.17
345.50
338.60
10,164
COCOA
5,719
+3.18%
-34.96%
5,543
5,779
5,574
26,773
PETR4
41.64
-0.05%
+35.19%
41.66
41.97
41.15
41,499,400
VALE3
72.97
+0.83%
+30.75%
72.37
73.54
72.66
17,658,000
SUZB3
41.33
+2.35%
-23.55%
40.38
41.48
40.35
3,914,900
KLABIN
17.69
+0.80%
-2.95%
17.55
17.74
17.48
2,057,400
SLCE3
13.34
+0.30%
-12.25%
13.30
13.42
13.20
1,454,200
ABEV3
14.89
-0.80%
+21.91%
15.01
15.07
14.81
16,453,100
ITUB4
38.60
-1.03%
+4.57%
39.00
39.34
38.39
29,487,800
BBDC4
16.85
+0.36%
+3.50%
16.79
16.90
16.67
19,416,900
BBAS3
19.37
+0.47%
+0.73%
19.28
19.44
19.16
11,069,200
B3SA3
14.26
-0.21%
+12.73%
14.29
14.47
14.11
33,037,800
WEGE3
47.59
+0.49%
+29.99%
47.36
48.08
47.36
3,364,600
PRIO3
59.14
-0.19%
+50.67%
59.25
59.81
58.74
3,325,600
RENT3
34.68
-0.09%
+0.84%
34.71
34.96
34.35
7,979,100
AZZA3
15.89
-2.63%
-53.76%
16.32
16.42
15.82
1,330,300
CSNA3
4.30
+0.47%
-42.65%
4.28
4.41
4.26
10,076,100
GGBR4
24.69
+2.19%
+51.38%
24.16
24.85
24.18
7,047,600
ENEV3
24.21
-1.38%
+70.49%
24.55
24.64
23.99
9,297,000
LREN3
11.87
-1.33%
-28.65%
12.03
12.17
11.83
9,683,300
Live Company IntelligencePetroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR — the full investor dossier
Wall Street view
Valuation & profitability
Price & risk
$10.6552-wk high
$26.10
Revenue trend · 6y
Ownership
Dividend
03 On the B3 radar today — inflation and the Focus rate path
| Item | When | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| IGP-10 inflation, October | 8:00 BRT | Wholesale-driven gauge; September was 1.47% monthly |
| Central bank Focus bulletin | 8:25 BRT | Updates economists’ Selic, inflation and real expectations |
| B3 earnings | — | No confirmed release identified for today |
| Ex-dividends | — | No confirmed event identified |
| Corporate events | — | No confirmed event identified |
The radar is thin on corporate action and heavy on macro. IGP-10 is the first read of October’s price pressures at the wholesale level, which often leaks into consumer prices with a lag.
The Focus survey is the day’s second catalyst, updating the market’s median expectations for the Selic, inflation and the real. Any shift in rate expectations will move the short end of Brazil’s yield curve and rate-sensitive stocks.
04 Copom and the macro backdrop
The Selic path dominates Brazil’s domestic macro conversation, with the next Copom meeting on 3–4 November. Traders are weighing how much room the central bank has to move, or whether sticky inflation keeps rates high.
Brazil’s central bank said on Friday that economic activity (IBC-Br index) grew 0.3% in August, in line with the 0.3% forecast, after July was revised to a 0.4% fall. US industrial production, reported on Friday, rose 0.7% in September against a 0.4% forecast, and capacity utilisation reached 76.9% (Federal Reserve).
The second-round presidential election campaign between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is also in the background, with the vote on 25 October. A televised debate on Band on Sunday night kept the campaign in focus a week before the vote.
Colombia’s ISE economic activity index for August (consensus 1% year on year, previous 1.11%) comes out at 12:00 BRT, and Argentina’s September trade balance (consensus 2,500, previous 2,187, in US$ million) at 16:00 BRT.
05 Corporate stories to watch today
Petrobras is the standout corporate story after Friday’s roughly R$3.3 billion (about US$655 million) in preferred share turnover and a 4.0% gain. Its ordinary shares rose 3.5%.
Friday’s gainers included Magazine Luiza, up 6.9% on roughly R$640 million (about US$126 million) in turnover, and Assaí, up 4.2%. Both are rate-sensitive names that will react to IGP-10 and Focus signals.
The losers’ list was led by Braskem, down 6.5%. Today’s corporate radar shows no confirmed earnings release.
06 The levels to watch at the open
For the Ibovespa, Friday’s close at 205,430 is the pivot, with 205,000 the nearest round-number level below it. A hot IGP-10 print could pull the index under that level, while a softer print could see it test higher.
On the currency, the real’s R$5.00–R$5.10 range is the near-term corridor against the US dollar. A firmer real would support Petrobras and other exporters with dollar-linked revenue, while a weaker real would pressure importers and rate-sensitive names.
Petrobras preferred shares are the volume bellwether to watch, with Friday’s roughly R$3.3 billion in turnover setting a high bar. Any move in the stock on today’s oil tape will shape the Ibovespa’s opening direction.
07 What to watch
- IGP-10 at 8:00 BRT: Whether October’s monthly print cools from September’s 1.47% and eases pressure on the Selic
- Focus survey at 8:25 BRT: Any shift in economists’ median Selic, inflation or real expectations
- Petrobras preferred shares: Volume after Friday’s roughly R$3.3 billion (about US$655 million) in turnover and 4.0% gain
- US tape spillover: The VIX at 19.99 and Friday’s tech-led decline on Wall Street could weigh on B3’s open
Background: Asia Chip Selloff Tests Latin America Metals.
Background: EU Weighs Windfall Tax on Energy Profits.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket prices a 25-basis-point Selic cut at the central bank’s November decision at 90.5%, no change at 8.6% and a cut of 50 basis points or more at 1.4%, with about US$69,000 traded (as of 11:18 pm ET on 18 October). Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC, prices a cut of 1 to 25 basis points at 86%, no change at 10% and a larger cut at 4%.
Prices are real-money bets, not polls or forecasts by the central bank. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Selic?
The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, set by the central bank’s Copom committee. Its next meeting is on 3–4 November.
Why does IGP-10 matter for B3?
IGP-10 is a wholesale-driven inflation gauge that often leads consumer prices. A hotter print can weaken bets on a rate cut and pressure rate-sensitive shares like retailers and homebuilders.
What is the Focus bulletin?
It is the Brazilian central bank’s weekly survey of economists, updating their median forecasts for inflation, the Selic rate, the real and economic growth. It is released on Mondays at 8:25 BRT.
Which stocks are in play today?
Petrobras preferred shares are the volume bellwether, while rate-sensitive names like Magazine Luiza and Assaí will react to IGP-10 and Focus signals. No confirmed B3 earnings release was identified for today.
Market data: RT
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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