Covid-19: Brazil Will Only Achieve Herd Immunity After United States, Says Expert

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – According to an Airfinity study, the estimate is that Latin countries will reach herd immunity – that is, when the disease is contained because a large volume of people have already been immunized and the virus is prevented from spreading – only in March 2022.

So says Rasmus Bech Hansen, CEO of the British scientific data analysis consultancy Airfinity. “This is because the region has fewer guaranteed per capita vaccines than other regions, such as the United States and Canada. So it will take longer for Latin countries to be free from the impact of the pandemic,” he said.

For the United States, this calculation considers that the desired level will be reached in April 2021 and in the United Kingdom in July the same year. In Canada, it will be in June.

According to the company’s calculation, Brazil has 1.3 doses per inhabitant guaranteed, but if Pfizer’s doses are added this rate would reach 1.6, which would still be below the country’s needs – mostly because the main vaccines in phase 3 development require two doses to have effective immunization.

“The number of guaranteed vaccines in Brazil is not enough. Moreover, one must consider that not all test vaccines will work, some vaccines may take longer to be developed, others may never get off the ground… so the more candidates the country has guaranteed, the faster it may return to some kind of normality,” says the expert. “There isn’t a magic number that determines how much will be enough, but 1.3 is definitely too low.”

In his opinion, the government’s progress in negotiations to purchase Pfizer’s vaccine is an important step for the country. Another measure that could be taken by the Brazilian government is investing in vaccines in earlier development stages, as they may be potential candidates in 2021, when the demand for immunizers will still be high.

“What a country can do is to stay in touch with the industry to increase global production capacity. Many are focusing on these key candidates, but there are still many other developments that warrant investment and, in the future, will help the economy pick up and, of course, save lives.”