Peso Slips to 3,239 as Inflation Hits 6.29% | Colombia Market Report, Oct 7
Key Facts
- The Colombian dollar closed at an average of 3,239.09 pesos on Wednesday 7 October, 23.08 pesos above the official TRM of 3,216.01, after trading between 3,215 and 3,265 (Set-FX).
- Annual inflation rose to 6.29% in September from 6.24%, the statistics agency DANE reported, just below the 6.32% forecast; prices rose 0.37% in the month.
- The central bank raised its rate by 25 basis points to 12.25% in September, and inflation is now at its highest since July 2024.
- Ecopetrol’s New York shares fell 1.95% and Bancolombia’s 2.94%, while Colombia’s COLCAP closed at 2,589 on Tuesday (Valora Analitik).
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 45.0% to no change at Colombia’s October rate decision and 48.7% to a rise (US$33,741 traded, as of 8:45 pm ET, 7 October). Bets, not polls.
Today’s Focus
The Colombian peso weakened on Wednesday 7 October, and inflation data confirmed that prices are still rising. The dollar closed at an average of 3,239.09 pesos.
DANE, the statistics agency, said annual inflation reached 6.29% in September. That is the highest rate in more than two years, and it sets the floor for talks on the 2027 minimum wage.
Colombia’s stock market followed the region lower. We could not confirm the official COLCAP close for the day.
What matters today. Inflation above 6% keeps pressure on the central bank, which is already at 12.25%. The peso also followed a stronger dollar worldwide.
01 The session in one read
The dollar closed at an average of 3,239.09 pesos, up 23.08 pesos from the official rate (TRM) of 3,216.01. It traded between 3,215.25 and 3,265.00. More than US$781 million changed hands in 1,149 trades, according to the Set-FX trading system.
The TRM rose 6.23 pesos from Tuesday’s 3,209.78, or 0.19%. RT shows the dollar at 3,238.98 pesos, up 0.97%.
The US dollar index rose 0.41% to 102.25, which hit emerging-market currencies. Colombian ADRs fell: Ecopetrol lost 1.95%, Bancolombia 2.94% and Grupo Aval 0.80%.
The peso’s weakness follows the dollar’s strength worldwide, not a Colombian shock. The inflation data point the same way as the central bank’s recent decisions.
We do not have a verified COLCAP close. The index was near its record high earlier in the week, and Ecopetrol, its largest member, fell in New York.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar, Set-FX average | 3,239.09 pesos | +0.72% | Above the TRM of 3,216.01 |
| TRM, official rate | 3,216.01 pesos | +0.19% | Up 6.23 pesos |
| Inflation, Sep, annual | 6.29% | +0.05 pt | From 6.24% in August (DANE) |
| Inflation, Sep, monthly | 0.37% | — | Forecast 0.4%; August 0.39% |
| Ecopetrol (NYSE) | US$16.63 | -1.95% | Oil producer |
| Bancolombia (NYSE) | US$93.70 | -2.94% | Largest bank |
DANE reported that the Inflation Rate was 6.29% in September, below the forecast of 6.32% in the RT calendar and 6.33% in a Citi survey. Monthly inflation was 0.37% against 0.4% expected and 0.39% in August. The biggest monthly rises were in education, up 1.43%, and food, up 0.78%.
The highest annual rates were in restaurants and hotels, at 9.44%, health at 7.79% and education at 7.49%. Food inflation was 6.74%.
Annual inflation was 5.18% a year ago. The central bank’s September rate rise took its policy rate to 12.25%. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceColombia — Live Market Board
Colombia — Live Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
COLCAP
2,534.92
-2.09%
—
9.04
9.05
9.02
4,133
USD/COP
3,140
+0.03%
-22.04%
3,139
3,141
3,105
—
BRENT
88.88
-0.03%
+34.42%
88.91
90.07
88.12
29,713
WTI
83.11
-0.11%
+31.57%
83.20
84.35
82.40
166,848
ECOPETROL
16.92
-0.53%
+98.01%
17.01
17.05
16.79
737,591
BANCOLOMBIA
95.87
-2.18%
+96.15%
98.01
100.36
95.73
188,740
GRUPO AVAL
5.40
+2.66%
+76.89%
5.26
5.49
5.32
146,447
TECNOGLASS
42.30
-1.10%
-48.04%
42.77
42.73
42.05
60,908
CREDICORP
375.17
-0.49%
+49.60%
377.00
384.43
372.27
88,375
BUENAVENTURA
34.45
-1.02%
+88.07%
34.80
35.62
34.33
275,831
SOUTHERN COPPER
193.97
-0.26%
+104.01%
194.48
199.36
192.59
367,102
03 Why it moved: a stronger dollar and rate bets
Analysts told Infobae that the peso’s fall followed a stronger dollar worldwide and expectations about US and Colombian interest rates. The dollar index was lifted by weakness in the euro on worries about France’s finances.
In the oil market, Brent traded near US$101 a barrel. Colombia exports crude, but Ecopetrol’s New York shares still fell 1.95%.
Bancolombia fell 2.94% in New York, the largest drop among the Colombian ADRs on our board.
04 The day’s movers
| Stock | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Grupo Aval (ADR) | -0.80% | Bank holding |
| Ecopetrol (ADR) | -1.95% | Oil producer |
| Bancolombia (ADR) | -2.94% | Largest bank |
New York moves are from RT closing prices for 7 October. Local share moves for the day were not available at publication. At 3,239 pesos per dollar, 1,000 pesos is about US$0.31.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| COLCAP | Colombia | n/a |
| Ibovespa | Brazil | -0.74% |
| IPC | Mexico | -1.01% |
| IPSA | Chile | -1.47% |
| Merval | Argentina | -2.51% |
| S&P 500 | United States | -0.22% |
The COLCAP close for 7 October was not available from the exchange or the Colombian financial press at publication. Valora Analitik reported 2,589.04 points for Tuesday 6 October, up 0.25%.
06 The technical picture
The dollar at 3,239 pesos is up 2.6% over the past week, according to Infobae. Analysts quoted by the same outlet see a range of 3,300 to 3,400 pesos by the end of October, depending on US rate decisions and oil.
For stocks, Valora Analitik’s technical view puts first support for the COLCAP at 2,500 points and resistance at 2,628.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s market on the Central Bank of Colombia’s decision in October priced no change at 45.0%, a rise of 25 basis points at 36.0% and a rise of 50 basis points or more at 12.7%, with US$33,741 traded (read at 8:45 pm ET on 7 October).
These prices are bets on a central-bank decision, not forecasts. Together the two rise outcomes add up to 48.7%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Minimum wage talks: September inflation of 6.29% is the floor for the negotiation on the 2027 minimum wage.
- Central bank: Higher inflation raises the chance of a further rate rise at the October meeting.
- Dollar: A move above 3,300 pesos would extend the peso’s fall.
- Oil: Brent near US$100 supports Ecopetrol and Colombia’s export income.
Background: Peso Ends at 3,216 as Producer Prices Rise | Colombia Market Report, Oct 6.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Colombia’s inflation in September?
Annual inflation was 6.29% in September, up from 6.24% in August, according to DANE. Prices rose 0.37% in the month.
Where did the Colombian dollar close on 7 October?
The dollar closed at an average of 3,239.09 pesos, according to Set-FX. The official TRM for the day was 3,216.01 pesos.
What is the central bank’s interest rate?
The Banco de la República raised its rate by 25 basis points to 12.25% in September.
Why does inflation matter for the minimum wage?
Annual inflation is the floor for the negotiation between workers and employers over the 2027 minimum wage.
Market data: RT; inflation: DANE; exchange rate: Set-FX, Banco de la República; prediction markets: Polymarket (as of 8:45 pm ET, 7 October 2026)
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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