Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 7, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today riding a historic 12-session Ibovespa winning streak. Petrobras beat Q3 profit estimates despite softer Brent prices and announced fresh dividends.
October’s $6.964 billion trade surplus crushed forecasts, driven by a 33% surge in exports to China. The results underscore how Brazil’s eastward pivot is providing hard-currency armor against 15% Selic pain and looming U.S. tariff clouds.
Today’s Brazilian prints—06:00 AM BRT IGP-DI inflation and 07:00 AM BRT PPI—matter because any upside surprise re-anchors inflation expectations, keeping the BCB hawkish and USD/BRL capped below 5.35; a soft read fuels early-2026 cut bets and Ibovespa momentum.
Key global prints steer the carry trade:
- 08:30 AM BRT Canada jobs (cons. –5 k, u-rate 7.1%)
- 10:00 AM BRT U. Michigan sentiment (cons. 53.0)
- 15:00 PM BRT U.S. consumer credit (cons. $10.4 bn)
These matter because a Canadian labor miss weakens CAD and spills into EM FX; U-Mich inflation expectations guide Fed pricing; together they dictate whether Petrobras-style resilience keeps foreign inflows bid or shutdown-induced dollar spikes drag BRL lower.
Economic Agenda for November 7, 2025
Brazil
- 06:00 AM BRT – IGP-DI Inflation (Oct) Prev: 0.36%
- 07:00 AM BRT – PPI (Sep) Prev: –0.20%
Implication: Hot wholesale prices = prolonged 15% Selic, BRL support; cool print = cut bets, equity bid.
Mexico
- 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Oct) Prev: 0.23%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) Prev: 0.33%
- 07:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Oct) Prev: 3.76%
Implication: Sticky core keeps Banxico on hold, peso spill lifts BRL carry.
United States
- 08:30 AM BRT – Employment Change (Oct) Cons: –5.0 k
- 08:30 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Oct) Cons: 7.1 %
- 10:00 AM BRT – Michigan Sentiment (Nov) Cons: 53.0
- 15:00 PM BRT – Consumer Credit (Sep) Cons: $10.4 bn
Implication: Soft labor + sentiment = dollar pause, EM revival.
Europe
- 02:00 AM BRT – German Exports/Imports (Sep) Act: +1.4 % / +3.1 %
- 02:45 AM BRT – French Trade Balance (Sep) Act: –6.6 bn
- 07:00 AM BRT – German Buba Nagel Speaks
Implication: Weak EZ trade curbs commodity demand; Nagel tone sets EUR yield path.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s wholesale gauges are the only local pulse—cool numbers keep the Ibovespa rocket fueled. Canada jobs and U-Mich set the dollar tempo; miss any and USD/BRL spikes, 15% Selic pain prolongs, and the 12-day streak snaps.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
São Paulo’s B3 delivered a 12th straight gain—the longest streak since 1997—and a ninth record close Thursday, Ibovespa +0.03 % to 153,338.63 (intraday >154,000 for the first time).
C&A +8.45 %, Vamos +8.06 %, Rede D’Or +7.79 % led; Petrobras advanced on earnings anticipation. Volume swelled on foreign inflows cheering Selic discipline and the $6.964 bn October surplus.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Wall Street bled red Thursday, November 6. S&P 500 –1.1 % to 6,720.32, Dow –0.8 % to 46,912.30, Nasdaq –1.9 % to 23,053.99. Russell 2000 –1.9 %. Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon dragged tech lower amid shutdown data void and weak forecasts. YTD: S&P +14.3 %, Nasdaq +19.4 %.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso gained 0.6% to 19.48 MXN/USD, buoyed by near-shoring inflows and Banxico carry appeal. The IPC index dipped 0.4% to 58,210 points amid global risk-off and tariff jitters. Consumer staples and telecoms held firm while industrials lagged.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s peso held steady on November 6, 2025, with official rate at 1,475 ARS/USD and blue rate at 1,435 ARS.
S&P Merval Index declined 2.45% to 2,973,544 points amid global equity weakness. Financial and energy sectors led retreat, with top gainers DOME (+38.33%) and losers ROSE (-7.82%).
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso appreciated 1.35% to 3,783 COP per USD on November 6, 2025.
The MSCI COLCAP Index rose 0.48% to 2,044.41 points, driven by foreign capital inflows and commodity export gains.
Top sectors included industrials, services, and agriculture, with leaders like Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana SA up 4.25%.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
The Chilean peso traded at 943.67 CLP per USD on November 6, 2025, up 0.09% despite prior-day dip.
The S&P IPSA index closed at 9,459.59 points, rising 0.29%, driven by real estate and financial gains. Top performers included Mallplaza (+5.90%) and Parauuco (+4.29%), backed by firm copper prices.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real held firm near 5.36 USD/BRL Thursday, buoyed by Selic vigilance, the $6.964 bn October surplus, and softer dollar on shutdown delays. Senate tax-relief gridlock lingers, but 15 % carry keeps inflows alive.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto steadied after a turbulent session; altcoins led cautious gains while Bitcoin defended $100 k amid easing ETF outflows.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Oil & trade shine—Petrobras Q3 beat, $6.964 bn surplus. Pulp & fintech mixed—Suzano margins squeezed, StoneCo disciplined growth.
Key Developments
October trade surplus $6.964 bn (exports $31.98 bn +9.1 %, imports $25.01 bn –0.8 %); China-bound shipments +33.4 %—vital BRL and fiscal buffer.
Petrobras Q3 profit tops consensus despite lower Brent; board approves fresh dividends, payout policy intact.
Suzano Q3 net R$1.96 bn (–39 %), pulp price $524/t (–22 %), stronger BRL bites margins.
StoneCo Q3 adj. net R$641 m (+13 %), revenue R$3.57 bn (+16 %), 4.72 m payment clients; sells Linx for R$3.05 bn.
Tenda Q3 profit R$111.7 m (+46.6 %), revenue R$1.1 bn (+24.5 %), adj. EBITDA margin 16.5 %.
Vivara Q3 net R$216.2 m (+28.5 %), revenue R$1.97 bn (+22.4 %); Méliuz Q3 net loss R$12.3 m (vs profit prev); Banco ABC Q3 net R$278.4 m (+15.2 %).
Smart Fit Q3 net R$178 m (+42 %), revenue R$1.35 bn (+28 %); Dexco Q3 net R$98 m (–12 %), EBITDA R$512 m; Armac Q3 net R$89 m (+35 %).
Minerva Q3 net R$312 m (+18 %), revenue R$8.1 bn (+11 %); Aeris Q3 net loss R$45 m; Petz Q3 net R$28 m (+55 %).
Brava Energia Q3 net R$142 m (+78 %), production +22 %; Vibra Energia Q3 net R$412 m (+5 %); CBA Q3 net R$189 m (–22 %).
Engie Brasil Q3 net R$1.12 bn (+12 %), EBITDA R$2.1 bn; Totvs Q3 net R$298 m (+19 %); Rede D’Or Q3 net R$1.05 bn (+28 %).
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+2.75%
184,656.60
+2.75%
64,838.57
+0.50%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,093,014
+1.43%
2,488.06
+0.72%
59,515.48
+0.10%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 184,656.60 | +2.75% | +21.85% | 179,722.48 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.