Brazilian electric operator raises rainfall forecast and expects rise in reservoirs in December

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Brazilian Electric System Operator (ONS) report, released on Friday, December 17, forecasts rainfall above the historical average in the Southeast/Midwest subsystem, which accounts for approximately 70% of Brazil’s power generation.

As a result, the region’s reservoirs are expected to reach 24.7% of their total capacity by the end of the month. In the worst water shortage period in the country, registered in September this year, the Southeast and Midwest hydroelectric plants registered a volume of only 16%, representing the worst water crisis in the past 91 years.

According to the ONS report, the Southeast/Midwest subsystem should register higher rainfall than the historical average for the region, due to the “formation of a humidity corridor, which should bring rain during the penultimate week of the year.”

The Brazilian Operator’s forecasts also indicate a large volume of rainfall in the Northeast, North and South of the country, albeit not above the historical average.

Thus, Brazil’s three subsystems should see their reservoir levels increase by the end of December. In the Northeast, reservoirs will operate at 49.3% capacity.

In the South, they are expected to close the year at 37.2%. In the Southeast/Midwest, at 24.7% capacity. The only expected decrease will be in the North, with a 44.5% capacity of the region’s reservoirs.

The large volume of rainfall should also influence energy demand in the country in the coming weeks, since the mild temperature lowers the use of electronic appliances, such as air conditioning. Therefore, the National Interconnected System (SIN), which covers the energy consumption of all Brazilian regions, indicates that the demand for electricity in December should be only 0.1% higher in relation to the same month last year.

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