Brazil Police Name 2 Over Threats to Pro-Lula Students
POLITICS · BRAZIL
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —Why it matters Threats of arson, bombs and assaults against students at pro-Lula rallies have reached ten universities and institutes in seven states in one week.
- —Why now Student groups began organising rallies for Lula after the first round on Sunday 4 October. The threats followed within days.
- —What happened On Friday 9 October the Federal Police formally named two suspects over messages proposing to set fire to Universidade Federal Fluminense in Niterói.
- —What it means for you Campus rallies can turn tense before the vote. Visiting students and staff should follow university security notices and avoid political crowds.
- —Still open Who wrote most of the messages, whether any group coordinated them, and what charges, if any, prosecutors will bring.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 88% chance of winning the presidency (11 October, 1:38 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 88% and Kalshi at 88% (Lula: 12% and 13%), as of 11 October, 2:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Threats against pro-Lula students have put Brazil’s Education Ministry, the Federal Police and federal prosecutors on alert, two weeks before the 25 October presidential runoff. Messages proposing to burn a university in Niterói, bomb a rally in Paraná and assault students in Minas Gerais circulated in pro-Bolsonaro chat groups this week. For foreign investors and visitors, the episodes are an early test of whether Brazil can keep a polarised campaign peaceful.
On Friday 9 October the Federal Police (PF) formally named two suspects over the Niterói messages, SBT News and Folha de S.Paulo reported. In Brazil this step, called indiciamento, means police consider a person a suspect. It is not a conviction, and both remain presumed innocent.
Their names have not been released, and the reports did not say which offence is involved.
Threats Spread Across Seven States
The runoff pits President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the conservative Liberal Party (PL). Flávio is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
After the first round on Sunday 4 October, student unions called assemblies and marches of pro-Lula students. The backlash came fast, according to a tally of cases by Folha de S.Paulo.
At Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF) in Niterói, across the bay from Rio de Janeiro, messages in a WhatsApp-style group called “Juntos com Bolsonaro” (“Together with Bolsonaro”) proposed a list of people to set the campus on fire at night. Others spoke of beating protesters and stabbing a student leader. Folha noted the group is not an official campaign channel.
UFF said on Thursday 8 October that it had “immediately” sent all the material to the Federal Police. Acting rector Fabio Passos said in a video that the threats began on Wednesday 7 October, according to the state news agency Agência Brasil. The university asked Niterói city hall for extra security around its campuses.
In Campos dos Goytacazes, also in Rio de Janeiro state, the local PT branch and the oil workers’ union filed a police report. They said a group called “Campistas com Bolsonaro” spoke of using explosives at the state university UENF. The civil police said it would hear the parties.
At the State University of Londrina (UEL) in Paraná, a chat message spoke of throwing “a bomb at the PT rally”. The university said on Thursday it had drawn up a contingency plan to protect people and property, and that peaceful rallies of all political currents are allowed on campus.
From Messages to Confrontations
Not every case stayed online. In São Paulo on Thursday night, a group calling itself “Caça aos Comunistas” (“Hunt for Communists”) confronted pro-Lula students outside Mackenzie Presbyterian University on Rua Maria Antônia. Folha reported attempted assaults before police stepped in.
In Sergipe, a student rally outside the federal university was broken up on Thursday night after an off-duty military police officer appeared armed, participants said. The state security secretariat identified him, took his weapon and said he would be removed from street duty. Reports of shots are still being checked. No one was hurt.
At the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) in Porto Alegre, people linked to the Free Brazil Movement (MBL) entered the campus and students reported intimidation. The MBL is a conservative activist group best known for leading the 2015 and 2016 protests for President Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment. The Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office (MPF) opened a procedure on the case on Thursday, Folha reported.
In Minas Gerais, law students at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) said they received messages and audio threatening assaults and robberies at a Friday rally. Federal deputy Rogério Correia of the PT filed a police report. The authorship of those messages has not been established.
How the Government Responded
Education Minister Leonardo Barchini said on Thursday that his ministry would ask the Federal Police cybercrime directorate to investigate threats posted on social media. He said the government had received reports from students, professors and rectors. “We have a great concern that this violence will escalate,” he told Agência Brasil.
Barchini called the university a plural space for political expression. Institutions are responding through police reports, campus security and prosecutors, not by banning rallies.
The rector of the Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Alfredo Macedo Gomes, also asked the PF to investigate threats. Separately, a fire on Wednesday destroyed UFPE laboratories. The rector put the damage at about R$100 million (about US$20 million at the Central Bank PTAX rate of R$4.99 per dollar on 9 October). The PF has opened an inquiry. There is no finding so far that the fire was set, nor any link to the threats.
What It Means for You
For US investors, the runoff already moves Brazilian assets, and campaign violence is a risk that markets watch closely. So far the threats to pro-Lula students remain threats and isolated scuffles, handled by police and universities.
For American exchange students and academic staff in Brazil, the practical advice is simple. Follow your university’s security notices, keep away from political rallies, and register with the US Embassy’s STEP alert programme.
Readers planning travel around the vote can find the voting-day rules in our guide Brazil Runoff Day on 25 October for Foreign Visitors.
What Is Not Known
It is not known who wrote most of the messages, or whether any were coordinated. The PF did not tell Folha whether it had opened a wider investigation. Neither the Flávio Bolsonaro campaign nor the PL has been quoted on the threats in the reports we reviewed.
It is also not known which offence the two Niterói suspects may face, or whether prosecutors will charge them.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bets give Flávio Bolsonaro an 88% chance of winning the presidency and Lula about 12% (11 October, 1:38 a.m. ET). That is a jump of about 23 points for Flávio over the past week, after the first round.
Traded volume is about US$19 million on the Flávio contract, US$22 million on the Lula contract and US$180 million across the whole Brazil election event. These are bets, not polls, and they price the result, not the campaign’s tone. For the latest survey, see Brazil Poll Gives Flávio Bolsonaro 52.8%, Lula 47.2%.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 87.9% · Lula 11.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 88% · Lula 13%
As of 11 October, 2:20 am ET (07:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who Has Been Accused Over the Threats to Pro-Lula Students?
The Federal Police formally named two suspects on Friday 9 October over messages proposing to set fire to Universidade Federal Fluminense in Niterói. Their names have not been released, and they are presumed innocent.
Which Universities Reported Threats?
Reports came from UFF and UENF in Rio de Janeiro state, UFMG, Ufop and IFMG in Minas Gerais, UEL in Paraná, Mackenzie in São Paulo, UFS in Sergipe, UFRGS in Rio Grande do Sul and UFPE in Pernambuco.
Is It Safe for Foreign Students in Brazil Before the Runoff?
No one has been reported hurt. Foreign students should follow campus security notices, avoid political rallies and register with their embassy’s alert service until after the 25 October vote.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo · Agência Brasil (Education Ministry) · Agência Brasil (UFF) · SBT News · Banco Central do Brasil PTAX
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error