ANALYSIS · BRAZIL
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —Why it matters PEC 18/2025 would rewrite how Brazil’s federal, state and city forces fight organised crime, and it has become a campaign issue.
- —Why now The Senate pulled its vote on Thursday 15 October after senators filed amendments to lower the age of criminal responsibility.
- —What happened Two of five floor amendments would cut the age from 18; one sets 16 for most crimes, the other 16 for heinous crimes only.
- —The numbers A PEC needs 49 of 81 senators in each of two rounds. A Quaest poll of 2,154 people on 10 to 13 October had a margin of two points.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you Nothing changes for visitors or investors yet, but the outcome shapes Brazil’s security agenda after the runoff.
- —Still open Whether the age proposals travel as separate PECs, and when the Senate votes on the security text.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.2% · Lula 20.5% (US$184 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 16 October, 3:00 am ET (08:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
The Brazil security PEC explained here would write national crime-fighting cooperation into the Constitution. On Thursday 15 October it stalled in the Senate over the age of criminal responsibility.
For US readers, the fight matters because Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October and both camps now compete over crime policy. A proposal first meant as a technical security reform became a test of the Workers’ Party (PT) and the Liberal Party (PL).
The PT is President Lula’s left-wing party, and the PL is the conservative party of his runoff rival, Flávio Bolsonaro. Both have senators in the chamber that must pass the text before it can join the Constitution.
Brazil Security PEC Explained: What It Changes
PEC 18/2025 puts the Unified Public Security System, known as Susp, into the Constitution. It sets cooperation rules for the federal government, states and municipalities, including joint task forces and shared evidence, Agência Senado says.
A central strand is a tougher penal regime for leaders and members of factions, paramilitary groups and militias, scaled to their rank. It includes mandatory maximum-security prison, limits on moving to lighter regimes, seizure of linked assets without compensation, and protection for informants.
Cities could create civilian municipal police under outside control by prosecutors. A town could not keep overlapping municipal guard and municipal police forces, and the Federal Highway Police would patrol federal railways and waterways.
The text shields three security funds from freezes and keeps 10% of the pre-salt sovereign fund surplus for the sector. Rapporteur Rogério Carvalho of the PT dropped a clause sending betting revenue to those funds.
One clause lets Congress suspend acts of the national justice and prosecution councils that exceed their rule-making powers. It applies only to security, criminal law, criminal procedure and prison law, according to Agência Senado.
What the Law Says on the Criminal Age Today
Article 228 of the Constitution says people under 18 are criminally unaccountable and subject to special legislation. The Child and Adolescent Statute applies socio-educational measures instead, and internment cannot exceed three years.
Under the same statute, release is compulsory at age 21. Any cut below 18 therefore needs a constitutional amendment, which is why the debate reached a PEC.
The age was never in the government’s original text, G1 notes. A cut from 18 to 16 was floated in the Chamber, met government resistance and was dropped before the final vote.
Separately, a stand-alone PEC cutting the age to 16 cleared the Chamber’s justice committee 44 to 18 in June, G1 says. It then advanced to a special committee.
What Each Side Put on the Table
Agência Senado lists amendment 84, by Senator Rogério Marinho (PL-RN), which would set the age at 16 as the rule. It would drop to 14 for heinous crimes, torture, drug trafficking, terrorism and membership of criminal organisations.
Marinho leads the opposition in the Senate and coordinates Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign, G1 and Folha de S.Paulo note. Flávio Bolsonaro also signed it and defended the cut on Wednesday 14 October in Porto Alegre.
Amendment 87, by Camilo Santana (PT-CE), keeps 18 as the rule but lowers it to 16 for heinous crimes. GZH says it carries 28 signatures, including his own.
Santana leads the PT in the Senate, and G1 calls his text a reaction to the opposition move. Government allies judged a narrow cut for one category of crime safer than a broad cut for many.
Carvalho then said he would ask for both age amendments to travel as separate PECs, GZH reports. That would leave the security text unchanged, so it would not have to return to the Chamber of Deputies.
Why the Criminal Age Split the PT and the PL
The PT has historically opposed lowering the age, G1 notes, citing fears of overcrowded prisons and contact between teenagers and factions. In June, government allies in the Chamber argued that a cut touches fundamental guarantees that a constitutional amendment cannot remove.
Article 60, paragraph 4, of the Constitution bars amendments that abolish individual rights and guarantees. Santana’s text broke with the PT line, Folha says, and split the party.
Lula disowned it and phoned the rapporteur to say no amendment should pass, Folha says. He later told TV Globo he favours 16 for every heinous crime, but not inside this PEC.
Record’s news portal quoted Lula in that interview as saying he backs 16 for heinous crimes, though not through this PEC. Rui Costa, his campaign coordinator, said the debate would delay the security text and belongs to another moment, G1 says.
The PL used the issue to force a choice. Folha describes the Marinho amendment as a way to win the vote or oblige the government to vote against a cut.
Quaest polled 2,154 people on 10 to 13 October, with a margin of two points. G1 says a cut to 16 ranked among the best-supported campaign proposals.
Marinho called Santana’s text a palliative but said the opposition would back it as a step forward. Alcolumbre said the delay was his decision alone.
Where the Vote Stands
Senate president Davi Alcolumbre pulled the text on Thursday, as covered in Brazil Senate Delays Security PEC on 15 Oct. He said senators needed time to agree on the amendments and that the debate could not be hasty.
The Senate must vote twice, and each round needs 49 of 81 senators, according to Agência Senado. Any approved change to the text sends the PEC back to the Chamber of Deputies, which passed it in March.
For the committee stage and the wider text, see Brazil’s Public Security Amendment Explained. For the timetable, see What Happens Next for Brazil’s Security PEC.
The earlier split inside the government camp is covered in Lula Camp Splits on Brazil Criminal Age Cut to 16. The minister question tied to the text appears in Lula’s Public Security Ministry Pledge and the Runoff.
What It Means for You
For travellers and investors, nothing changes today because the amendment is still a proposal. Policing rules, prison rules and the age of criminal responsibility stay as they are until Congress promulgates a text.
The dispute shows how security policy now drives Brazil’s runoff, with both camps competing on crime nine days before the vote. How senators handle the age question will show how far each camp will go on crime before the runoff.
What Is Not Known
No source sets a new date for the Senate vote, and Alcolumbre gave none. Some government allies expect it next week, but that is an expectation, not a schedule.
It is not clear whether the age amendments will be withdrawn, filed as separate PECs or put to a floor vote. Nor is it known how many of the 81 senators would back a cut to 16.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Brazil security PEC explained in one line?
It is a constitutional amendment that writes a national public security system into the Constitution and toughens penalties for faction and militia members. It was sent by the government in April 2025 and passed the Chamber of Deputies in March this year.
What is the criminal age today?
Under article 228 of the Constitution, people under 18 are not criminally responsible. They face socio-educational measures under the Child and Adolescent Statute, with internment capped at three years.
What did the two Senate amendments propose?
Marinho’s amendment sets the age at 16 as the rule and 14 for listed serious crimes. Santana’s keeps 18 as the rule and lowers it to 16 for heinous crimes.
Why did the PT and the PL disagree?
The PL made a lower age a campaign flag, while the PT has long opposed it and split over Santana’s compromise. Lula said he backs 16 for heinous crimes but not inside the security PEC.
Can the Senate vote this week?
No date has been published after Alcolumbre pulled the text on Thursday 15 October. Some government allies expect a vote next week, but nothing is confirmed.
Sources: Agência Senado, committee vote and text, 14 October 2026; Agência Senado, withdrawal and amendments, 15 October 2026; G1, 15 October 2026; Folha de S.Paulo, 15 October 2026; GZH, 15 October 2026; Record news portal, Lula interview, 15 October 2026; Planalto, Constitution, articles 60 and 228; Planalto, Child and Adolescent Statute, articles 104 and 121.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief