BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 4:10 a.m. ET · Source: TV Globo interview, Agência Brasil
Key Facts
- Who Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, faces Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, in the runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- What On Thursday 15 October, Lula said on TV Globo that he backs lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 for heinous crimes.
- Why it matters The Senate pulled a security amendment from its agenda that same day over the criminal-age fight, and Lula wants the topic kept out of that text.
- The change Lula and his Workers’ Party have historically opposed a lower age, and Flávio Bolsonaro also backs a lower age.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 20.5% (16 October, 4:06 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 78% (Lula: 21% and 22%), as of 16 October, 4:00 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open No new date has been reported for the Senate vote on the security amendment.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, said on Thursday 15 October that he supports lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 for heinous crimes, the most serious violent offences under Brazilian law. He spoke in a TV Globo interview before the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October against Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro.
The shift matters because Lula and his Workers’ Party (PT) have historically opposed a lower age, CNN Brasil reported. Public security is now a central campaign issue, and the Senate pulled a security amendment from its agenda the same day.
What Lula Said on Jornal Nacional
Journalist Renata Lo Prete interviewed Lula on Jornal Nacional, TV Globo’s flagship evening news programme. He said: “Eu sou favorável a diminuir para 16 anos, mas não a discutir isso nessa PEC” (“I favour lowering it to 16, but not discussing it in this PEC”), according to CNN Brasil.
Lula said the PEC should be approved first and the age discussed afterwards, Agência Brasil, the state news agency, reported. He framed the amendment as a way to let the federal government take part in state security.
Where the Senate Security Amendment Stands
The PEC, short for proposta de emenda à Constituição (a proposed constitutional amendment), would give the federal government a bigger role in public security alongside states and cities. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre took it off the agenda on Thursday 15 October amid the impasse over the criminal-age provision, CNN Brasil reported.
Camilo Santana, the PT leader in the Senate, filed an amendment this week to cut the age to 16 for heinous crimes only, and it met resistance from allies. An amendment from Senator Rogério Marinho of the Liberal Party (PL), Flávio Bolsonaro’s party, filed on Wednesday 14 October sets 16 as the general age and 14 for certain crimes.
Passing a constitutional amendment takes 49 of the Senate’s 81 votes in each of two rounds. Lula says the age question should wait until after that vote.
How Flávio Bolsonaro Responded
Flávio Bolsonaro, whose party filed the broader cut, ironised the PT’s move, CNN Brasil reported. He defends a lower criminal age himself, Metrópoles reported.
Our earlier coverage of the split inside Lula’s camp and the security PEC explained has the background.
What It Means for US Readers
Both finalists now back a lower criminal age in some form, though Lula limits it to heinous crimes and wants it kept out of the Senate amendment, while the PL text goes further. Public security is one of the issues shaping a runoff that decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy for four years.
Readers tracking the race can follow the Brazil election polls and the Brazil election odds as voters react. Neither is a forecast of the result.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 20.5% (16 October, 4:06 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$184.2 million in bets, which are wagers, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.2% · Lula 20.5% (US$184 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 22%
As of 16 October, 4:00 am ET (09:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
No new date has been reported for the Senate vote on the security amendment after Alcolumbre pulled it from the agenda. It is also unclear whether the PT amendment can win the support of the party’s own allies, who resisted it.
Lula answered questions on other topics in the interview, which this report does not cover. No poll yet measures how voters react to his change of position.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Lula say about the criminal age?
Lula said on Thursday 15 October that he favours lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 16 for heinous crimes. He said the topic should not be discussed inside the Senate security amendment.
Why is the security amendment stalled?
Senate President Davi Alcolumbre took the PEC off the Senate agenda on Thursday 15 October amid the impasse over the criminal-age provision. No new vote date has been reported.
What is Flávio Bolsonaro’s position on the criminal age?
Flávio Bolsonaro defends a lower criminal age, and a PL amendment filed on 14 October sets 16 in general and 14 for certain crimes. He ironised the PT’s change of position.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October in the runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Sources: Agência Brasil, 15 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 15 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 15 October 2026; Metrópoles, 15 October 2026; Poder360, 15 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief