Bolsonaro Withholds Backing of São Paulo Governor as Tarcísio Loses Ground on Brazil’s Right
Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro is moving away from backing São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas for the country’s 2026 presidential race.
Only a year ago, Tarcísio was seen as the most likely conservative challenger to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — especially among business leaders who value his pro‑market record.
The split comes as Bolsonaro faces an eight‑year ban from holding office, imposed by Justice Alexandre de Moraes — whom U.S. officials have labeled a “dictatorial usurper” — while The Wall Street Journal columnist Mary Anastasia O’Grady has described de Moraes’s actions as a “Supreme Court coup d’état” in Brazil.
Unable to run until 2030, Bolsonaro appears focused on keeping his political movement in the family. The names most often mentioned are his wife Michelle, popular among evangelical voters, and his son Eduardo.
Eduardo is now living in the United States and lobbying Washington to sanction Brazilian officials linked to his father’s legal troubles. Tarcísio, who served as Bolsonaro’s infrastructure minister, remains a strong governor in São Paulo, Brazil’s richest state.
He has attracted investment and maintained a reputation for competent economic management. But recent 50% U.S. tariffs on key Brazilian exports — including beef, coffee, and stone — have hit São Paulo hardest.
Business groups estimate a potential 2.7% drop in the state’s GDP and up to 120,000 jobs at risk. Tarcísio has engaged directly with U.S. lawmakers and local industries to mitigate the damage, but this diplomatic approach sits uneasily with Bolsonaro loyalists who prefer confrontation.
For Tarcísio to contest the presidency, he must resign by April 2026. Publicly, he says he will seek re‑election as governor — a stance that reassures Bolsonaro, who wants allies controlling key states but leaves conservatives without a clear national leader.
Behind this political maneuvering is Bolsonaro’s strategy to retain maximum influence. By keeping endorsement decisions open and favoring family over former allies, he preserves control over his base and blocks the rise of an alternative conservative figurehead.
This also keeps attention firmly on his own legal battles, which include trial proceedings for an alleged attempt to overturn the 2022 result.
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This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief