Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for August 12, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today amidst heightened uncertainty, driven by escalating diplomatic tensions with the U.S., domestic political turmoil, and persistent economic challenges.
The U.S.’s imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, effective August 6, 2025, in response to Brazil’s prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, led by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, has intensified bilateral strains.
U.S. officials, including Congressman Chris Landau, have labeled Moraes a “dictatorial usurper,” signaling a brewing storm that threatens Brazil’s export revenues, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing.
Domestically, the Supreme Court’s actions to restrict opposition voices, including a recent ban on pro-Bolsonaro journalist Paulo Figueiredo for spreading electoral disinformation, have deepened political tensions, contributing to investor unease.
The Central Bank of Brazil’s Selic rate, steady at 15%, combined with a 76.6% public debt-to-GDP ratio and a projected fiscal deficit, continues to pressure retail and construction sectors.
Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced that an important meeting with the US Treasury Secretary had been canceled, with no new date scheduled, signaling that neither side currently feels pressure to resolve the issue.
Additionally, former President Jair Bolsonaro’s decision to withhold support from São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who is losing ground among Brazil’s right-wing base, further complicates the political landscape, potentially impacting investor confidence.
Economic Agenda for August 12, 2025
Brazil
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 5.34%, Previous 5.35%. Tracks annual consumer price inflation, critical for BCB monetary policy.
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.37%, Previous 0.24%. Measures monthly consumer price changes, signaling short-term inflation trends.
- 7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT – Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.31%. Provides seasonally adjusted inflation data, guiding monetary policy and investor sentiment.
United States (Key Events)
- 7:30 AM EST / 8:30 AM BRT – Core CPI (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.3%, Previous 0.2%. Measures core inflation (excluding food and energy), a critical driver of U.S. monetary policy and global risk appetite.
- 7:30 AM EST / 8:30 AM BRT – Core CPI (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.0%, Previous 2.9%. Tracks annual core inflation, influencing Federal Reserve policy and capital flows.
- 7:30 AM EST / 8:30 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.8%, Previous 2.7%. Signals U.S. consumer price trends, a key indicator for global inflation expectations.
- 7:30 AM EST / 8:30 AM BRT – CPI (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.2%, Previous 0.3%. Reflects monthly price changes, driving U.S. dollar strength and commodity demand.
Europe (Key Events)
- 4:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM BRT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 39.5, Previous 52.7. Gauges economic outlook in Germany, a key Eurozone economy, impacting demand for global exports.
- 4:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM BRT – ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 28.1, Previous 36.1. Tracks Eurozone economic sentiment, critical for commodity exports.
Other (Key Events)
- 11:30 PM EST (Aug 11) / 12:30 AM BRT (Aug 12) – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug): Actual 3.60%, Consensus 3.60%, Previous 3.85%. Signals Australian monetary policy, impacting global commodity demand.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s main stock exchange, B3, faced rising pressure on August 11 after the U.S. government suddenly canceled important negotiations over tariffs.
As a direct result, the Ibovespa index ended its second consecutive session lower, closing at 135,623, down 0.21%. This small but meaningful drop signaled deepening international uncertainty and doubts about the future of Brazil’s trade growth.
The abrupt end of the meeting left Brazilian companies exposed to tough new U.S. tariffs of 50% on essential exports like meat and coffee.
Officials in Brazil’s government described the situation as “disappointing” and immediately began looking to the World Trade Organization for solutions.
At the same time, Brazil’s administration started shaping emergency plans to support affected sectors and made clear its aim to expand export relationships with Europe and Asia.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
On Monday, August 11, 2025, U.S. stock indexes edged back from their record heights as Wall Street braced for a major update on inflation and ongoing trade concerns. The S&P 500 fell by 16.00 points to close at 6,373.45.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 200.52 points to close at 43,975.09. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 64.62 points to finish at 21,385.40.
The market retreat reflected investor caution ahead of the release of July’s Consumer Price Index data on Tuesday, expected to show consumer prices climbed 2.8% from a year earlier, slightly higher than June’s 2.7%.
Micron Technology’s shares jumped 4.1% after it raised profit and revenue forecasts. AMC Entertainment gained 3.4% following a stronger-than-expected quarterly report.
TKO Group Holdings surged 10.2% on news of a major streaming deal. C3.ai was a major decliner, losing 25.6% after warning of a steep quarterly loss.
Gold prices eased after President Trump reversed course and excluded the metal from new tariffs, helping calm Friday’s volatility in the gold market.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian Real faced pressure on August 11, 2025, with USD/BRL climbing as U.S.-Brazil trade tensions escalated following the cancellation of tariff negotiations.
Today’s CPI (YoY) (7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT), CPI (MoM) (7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT), and Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA (7:00 AM EST / 8:00 AM BRT) will drive currency volatility.
Alongside these, global data like U.S. Core CPI (7:30 AM EST / 8:30 AM BRT) and German ZEW Economic Sentiment (4:00 AM EST / 5:00 AM BRT) will also impact the market. Fiscal concerns and diplomatic strains add further risks to the Real’s stability.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin stumbled on August 11, 2025, amid inflation jitters and regulatory concerns shaking investor nerves. Today’s U.S. Core CPI (7:30 AM EST / 8:30 AM BRT) and CPI (YoY) (7:30 AM EST / 8:30 AM BRT) will influence crypto sentiment, impacting Brazil’s fintech sector.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s commodity-driven economy faces significant challenges from the 15% Selic rate, increasing borrowing costs for exporters and domestic firms, alongside a 76.6% debt-to-GDP ratio and a projected fiscal deficit. U.S. 50% tariffs, effective August 6, 2025, threaten export revenues, particularly in meat and coffee.
Today’s CPI data, U.S. Core CPI, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, and the RBA Interest Rate Decision will shape export demand and market sentiment for Brazil’s key industries, including agribusiness, energy, and manufacturing. Brazil’s factories signal recovery but face headwinds as growth slows in 2025.
Key Developments:
Hidrovias do Brasil’s Performance: Hidrovias do Brasil reported solid Q2 2025 results, navigating tariff pressures in Brazil’s logistics sector.
Caixa Seguridade’s Growth: Caixa Seguridade posted strong Q2 2025 results, reinforcing confidence in Brazil’s insurance sector.
Sabesp’s Resilience: Sabesp delivered robust Q2 2025 performance, managing costs effectively in Brazil’s sanitation sector.
Vamos’ Challenges: Vamos faced tight margins in Q2 2025, reflecting pressures in Brazil’s equipment rental sector.
Grupo SBF’s Adaptation: Grupo SBF adjusted strategies in Q2 2025, navigating retail sector challenges amid high interest rates.
Lojas Quero-Quero’s Struggles: Lojas Quero-Quero faced margin pressures in Q2 2025, reflecting retail sector difficulties.
Even’s Performance: Even reported stable Q2 2025 results, balancing tariff pressures in Brazil’s real estate sector.
Marisa’s Challenges: Marisa faced tight margins in Q2 2025, reflecting retail sector struggles under high borrowing costs.
Azul’s Restructuring: Azul announced route cuts, fleet reductions, and a $2 billion rescue plan to navigate financial challenges in Brazil’s aviation sector.
Direcional’s Growth: Direcional posted strong Q2 2025 results, showing resilience in Brazil’s real estate sector.
Vibra Energia’s Performance: Vibra Energia reported stable Q2 2025 results, managing tariff pressures in Brazil’s energy sector.
Itaúsa’s Results: Itaúsa delivered solid Q2 2025 performance, reinforcing strength in Brazil’s financial sector.
Banco Pan’s Stability: Banco Pan maintained stable Q2 2025 results, navigating challenges in Brazil’s financial sector.
Votorantim Cimentos’ Resilience: Votorantim Cimentos showed strength in Q2 2025, managing costs in Brazil’s construction materials sector.
M. Dias Branco’s Performance: M. Dias Branco reported stable Q2 2025 results, balancing tariff pressures in Brazil’s food sector.
Localiza’s Growth: Localiza achieved revenue growth in Q2 2025, demonstrating strength in Brazil’s car rental sector.
Natura&Co’s Challenges: Natura&Co faced pressures in Q2 2025, reflecting difficulties in Brazil’s cosmetics sector.
Automob’s Struggles: Automob faced margin pressures in Q2 2025, reflecting challenges in Brazil’s automotive sector.
Unipar’s Strategy: Unipar is eyeing Braskem’s U.S. plants, seeking stability amid Brazil’s economic challenges.
Factory Recovery: Brazil’s factories signal recovery but face headwinds as growth slows in 2025, impacted by tariffs and high interest rates.
Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5, five hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
EST is used here for consistency, aligning with U.S. financial market schedules, influencing global trading.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
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+2.63%
192,114.55
+2.63%
64,531.68
+1.10%
10,916.57
+0.08%
2,767,663
+0.32%
2,515.02
-0.59%
59,751.67
+0.18%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 192,114.55 | +2.63% | +21.85% | 187,197.46 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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