BRAZIL · ELECTIONS 2026 · ANALYSIS
Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, leads President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the latest runoff polls from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, Nexus and PoderData. A simple average of those four polls gives him about 52% of valid votes to Lula’s 48%, eleven days before the vote on Sunday 25 October, and prediction markets put his chance of winning at about 86%.
The gap is about four points, and only PoderData has measured a change so far, with Flávio’s lead narrowing from six points to two. Quaest, a Brazilian polling firm working for TV Globo, the country’s largest broadcaster, publishes a new poll at 6 p.m. Brasília time on 14 October, which is 5 p.m. US Eastern, and Datafolha follows on 15 October.
Key Facts
- —The vote Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026 pits Flávio Bolsonaro of the conservative Liberal Party (PL) against President Lula of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT).
- —Poll average Flávio about 52%, Lula 48% of valid votes, the simple mean of the latest Datafolha, AtlasIntel, PoderData and Nexus polls.
- —First round Flávio 47.03%, Lula 45.16% on 4 October, when 21.08% of registered voters stayed home.
- —Next polls Quaest at 6 p.m. Brasília time on 14 October, Datafolha on 15 October.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 85.7% chance of winning and Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, 86% (14 October, 11:08 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 86% and Kalshi at 86% (Lula: 15% and 16%), as of 14 October, 11:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come
What the Latest Polls Show
Datafolha, the polling arm of the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper group, interviewed 2,520 voters on 6–7 October for Folha and TV Globo, registered with the electoral court as BR-02949/2026. It found Flávio on 52% of valid votes and Lula on 48%, or 49% to 45% among all voters.
AtlasIntel, which recruits respondents online, surveyed 5,026 people on 3–8 October (BR-03663/2026), partly before the first round, and gave Flávio 52.8% of valid votes. Nexus, polling 2,002 people for the bank BTG Pactual on 10–12 October (BR-07997/2026), found 52% to 48%.
PoderData, the polling unit of the news site Poder360, is the only one of the four with two runoff waves. Its survey of 3,000 people on 10–12 October (BR-01209/2026) put Flávio ahead by 51% to 49%, down from 53% to 47% on 5–7 October.
How We Averaged the Polls
We took the latest national runoff poll published since 4 October by each of these four pollsters and averaged their valid-vote shares with equal weight. Valid votes leave out blank, spoiled and undecided answers, the same basis the electoral court uses to declare a winner.
The four polls give Flávio leads of between two and 5.6 points, and their mean is 51.95% to 48.05%, or about 52% to 48%. Quaest is not included because its first national runoff wave since the vote had not been published when this article went live.
Our Brazil runoff poll tracker adds smaller firms such as Futura, Ipespe and Gerp, and only one of them, Vox Brasil, has Lula ahead. Read any single poll with care, because Datafolha’s final poll before the first round had Lula ahead by 45% to 42% of valid votes, and Flávio finished first.
What Moved Since 4 October
Two of the three eliminated candidates who won more than 2% now back Flávio: Augusto Cury, a psychiatrist and bestselling author who ran for the small Avante party and came third with 2.89%, from 8 October, and former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado, fifth with 2.18%, from 6 October. Romeu Zema of the free-market Novo party also endorsed him, while Renan Santos of the new Missão party, fourth with 2.24%, left his voters free to choose.
Those four candidates drew about 7.6% of valid votes together, about four times Flávio’s first-round lead of 1.87 points. Datafolha found 46% of their voters leaning to Flávio and 32% to Lula.
One prominent governor has also picked a side. Paraná’s Ratinho Júnior of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) declared for Flávio on 10 October, although his party stays officially neutral.
Both candidates are now set for Band television’s debate on Sunday 18 October at 8 p.m. Brasília time, after Flávio first said he would skip it. Lula gives a TV Globo interview on 15 October and Flávio on 16 October, as our debate schedule sets out.
The Northeast and the Rest of Brazil
Lula’s base is the Northeast, Brazil’s poorest region, where he took 63.8% of valid votes on 4 October against 30.9% for Flávio, according to electoral court figures. Flávio led in every other region, with 51.4% in the populous Southeast and 60.1% in the South.
The Northeast holds 27.6% of the domestic electorate and had the lowest abstention, 18.4%, against 22.7% in the Southeast. Lula’s path runs through higher turnout there and smaller losses in the Southeast, home to 42% of the domestic electorate.
What Is Still Uncertain
Abstention is the largest unknown: 33.5 million registered voters, or 21.08%, stayed home on 4 October, the highest rate for a general-election first round since 1998. The electoral court has said it will work to bring that number down for the runoff.
Few voters are undecided, with Datafolha counting 1% unsure and 5% planning a blank or spoiled vote. That leaves the race to turnout and to the small group still willing to switch, which the next Quaest and Datafolha waves will measure.
What It Means for US Readers
Prediction markets already treat a Flávio win as the likelier outcome, so a Lula victory would be the bigger surprise for holders of Brazilian shares, bonds and the country’s currency, the real. Read the valid-vote share rather than the headline lead, because a 52% to 48% race can turn on a two-point swing.
The count starts at 5 p.m. Brasília time on 25 October, which is 4 p.m. US Eastern, as our results start-time page explains. The winner takes office on 5 January 2027, and our runoff guide covers the rules and the candidates.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, Flávio traded at 85.7% and Lula at 14.5% at 11:08 a.m. ET on 14 October, with about US$181 million bet on the market. On Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Flávio stood at 86% and Lula at 16%, and our Brazil runoff odds page tracks both platforms.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 85.5% · Lula 14.5% (US$181 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 86% · Lula 16%
As of 14 October, 11:20 am ET (16:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is ahead in Brazil’s presidential runoff?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads in the latest poll of Datafolha, AtlasIntel, PoderData and Nexus. Their simple average gives him about 52% of valid votes to 48% for Lula as of 14 October.
When is the next Brazil runoff poll?
Quaest publishes a new national poll from 6 p.m. Brasília time on Wednesday 14 October, and Datafolha follows on Thursday 15 October. Both are registered with the electoral court.
What do betting markets say about Lula vs Flávio?
On 14 October, Polymarket gave Flávio a 85.7% chance of winning and Kalshi 86%. These are real-money bets, not polls, and their prices can move within minutes.
How many Brazilians did not vote in the first round?
About 33.5 million registered voters, or 21.08%, abstained on 4 October, the highest rate for a general-election first round since 1998. Voting is compulsory for literate Brazilians aged 18 to 70, yet turnout still fell short of 80%.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), official first-round results, 5 October 2026; Datafolha runoff poll, via Gazeta do Povo, 8 October; AtlasIntel, via Gazeta do Povo, 9 October; PoderData, via Gazeta do Povo, 8 and 13 October; Nexus/BTG Pactual, via Gazeta do Povo, 13 October; Quaest and Datafolha release schedule, O Povo, 14 October; endorsements, Exame and Gazeta do Povo; Ratinho Júnior, Metrópoles; debates, O Povo; abstention, Agência Brasil; Polymarket and Kalshi prices read by The Rio Times on 14 October.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief