Oil Fund Rises 2.44% as Petrobras Falls 2.47% | Oil, Oct 15
Key Facts
- The USO oil fund rose 2.44% to US$157.31 on Thursday 15 October, and WTI crude traded near US$98 a barrel, according to Trading Economics.
- Oil producers’ shares fell: Exxon Mobil lost 1.32%, Chevron 1.23% and Occidental 1.21%.
- Latin American producers fell too: Petrobras 2.47%, YPF 2.18% and Ecopetrol 1.12%, while Vista Energy edged up 0.07%.
- Trading Economics tied the move to Strait of Hormuz risks, including attacks on commercial vessels.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives 66.5% that WTI touches US$100 at some point in October and 46.5% that it dips to US$90 (US$2.44 million traded, read at 8:24 pm ET on 15 October). Bets, not polls.
Today’s Focus
Oil rose on Thursday 15 October while oil company shares fell. The USO fund gained 2.44% to US$157.31, and WTI crude traded near US$98 a barrel, according to Trading Economics.
Trading Economics linked the rise to supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz, including attacks on commercial vessels. We could not confirm those reports from a second source.
Producers’ shares fell anyway, including Petrobras, Ecopetrol and YPF, so the crude rise did not reach Latin American stocks.
What matters today. Higher crude helps producers’ income but also raises fuel costs, so the gap between crude and oil shares tells US investors to read both.
01 The session in one read
Crude oil rose on Thursday, with the USO fund up 2.44% and WTI near US$98 a barrel according to Trading Economics. Oil company shares fell.
Exxon Mobil lost 1.32% to US$174.68, Chevron 1.23% to US$219.32 and Occidental 1.21%.
The rise in crude did not lift producers, which is unusual and may reflect broader market rotation or profit-taking. We could not confirm the settlement price of WTI, so the level is approximate.
02 The board
The board shows an oil fund and producers in US dollars.
| Instrument | Level (US$) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USO oil fund | 157.31 | +2.44% |
| Exxon Mobil | 174.68 | -1.32% |
| Petrobras ADR | 25.30 | -2.47% |
| YPF (Argentina) | 51.11 | -2.18% |
| Ecopetrol ADR | 17.70 | -1.12% |
| Vista Energy (Argentina) | 69.99 | +0.07% |
Source: RT close, 2026-10-15. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 204,324.26 | -1.06% | +21.85% | 206,505.98 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 10,971.88 | +0.05% | — | 10,966.21 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 67,180.21 | +0.58% | +12.17% | 66,790.35 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 2,859,051 | +0.82% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,580.50 | -0.07% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 59,543.73 | +1.12% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
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03 What moved it
Trading Economics cited attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as the main supply risk. We could not confirm the size of the latest US crude inventory change from the agency.
The US Energy Information Administration’s weekly report on stockpiles, due on Thursday, covers the crude stocks change (forecast −0.3 million barrels, previous −3.186 million), the Cushing stocks change (previous +0.444 million) and the crude imports change (previous −0.053 million). We could not confirm the results.
04 The Latin American read
Petrobras fell 2.47% in New York even as Brazil’s market fell 1.06% and the real weakened, so currency and politics also weighed. Ecopetrol fell 1.12%, and YPF 2.18%.
Vista Energy, focused on Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale field, edged up 0.07%.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras, Ecopetrol, YPF and Vista are the main US-listed Latin American oil names. Exxon and Chevron give a global comparison.
Their falls on a day of rising crude show that other factors moved the shares.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced the chance that WTI crude touches US$100 at some point in October at 66.5%, US$105 at 29.5% and a dip to US$90 at 46.5%, with US$2.44 million traded (read at 8:24 pm ET on 15 October). These prices are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly on new data.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
06 The outlook
The Hormuz risks keep oil sensitive to headlines. A confirmed settlement price and the EIA data would help judge the trend.
Polymarket traders see a 66.5% chance that WTI touches US$100 in October.
07 What to watch
- Hormuz headlines: Any new attack or military action would move crude quickly.
- US inventories: The next EIA weekly report will show whether stockpiles keep falling.
- Latin American producers: Watch whether Petrobras and Ecopetrol catch up with crude.
- US data: US industrial production for September is due at 13:15 UTC on Friday 16 October, with a forecast of +0.4%.
Background: Oil Rises 1% to US$95.09 as Ecopetrol Gains 2.2%.
Background: Brazil Stocks Fall 1.06% as Real Weakens.
More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil rise on 15 October?
Trading Economics linked the rise to supply risks near the Strait of Hormuz, including attacks on commercial vessels. The USO fund rose 2.44% to US$157.31.
Why did oil company shares fall?
Exxon, Chevron, Petrobras and Ecopetrol fell although crude rose. We found no single explanation.
What do prediction markets say about WTI?
Polymarket priced a touch of US$100 in October at 66.5%, as of 8:24 pm ET on 15 October. These are bets, not forecasts.
Which Latin American oil stock rose?
Vista Energy edged up 0.07% to US$69.99.
Market data: RT/RT; crude price and drivers: Trading Economics; prediction markets: Polymarket.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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