Milei leads in Argentina polls, but runoff seems inevitable

Javier Milei leads in Argentina polls, but runoff seems inevitable in the run-up to the Argentine presidential election on October 22.

However, a study from the University of Buenos Aires’ Psychology Faculty suggests that the new president of Casa Rosada will only be decided on November 19, the date set for a potential second round.

In the survey, the right-wing candidate has 38.5% of valid vote intentions.

Following him is Sergio Massa, the incumbent Economy Minister and government candidate, with 32.3%.

The survey interviewed 4,623 Argentines by phone between August 16 and 17, with a 1.4% margin of error.

Another survey by CB Consultora also places Milei first but with a lower vote intention (32.3%).

Massa remains second with 32.3%, while Patricia Bullrich has 25.3% of vote intentions. Undecided voters make up 5.4%, and blank or null votes 3.2%.

This data was collected from an online survey of 4,340 people, with a 1.5% margin of error.

The survey also accounted for the undecided voters (5.4%) and those intending to cast blank or null votes (3.2%).

In the same survey, the firm also assessed voters’ perceptions of the candidates.

Javier Milei has a 44.5% approval rate but also a high disapproval rate of 45.6%.

Economy Minister Sergio Massa has a 39.5% disapproval rate among Argentines, with only 26.1% approving of him.

In Argentina, to be elected in the first round, a candidate must:

• receive at least 45% of valid votes; or
• have at least 40% of votes with a 10 percentage point advantage over the second-place candidate.

Milei led the primary elections held on August 14 with 30.06% of the votes, which is insufficient to win in the first round. Massa secured 21.4% of the votes, finishing second.

However, the scenario in the general elections could be different.

Only 68.5% of the Argentine population participated in the primaries, the lowest turnout since the primary system was established.

Nevertheless, Clarín newspaper estimates that nearly two million voters who did not participate in the primaries may vote on October 22, potentially increasing participation by 5 percentage points compared to the primaries.