IMF Trims Mexico Growth Forecast for Next Year to 1.8%
MEXICO · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The country Latin America’s second-largest economy and one of the biggest US trading partners, linked by the USMCA trade pact.
- —What happened The International Monetary Fund (IMF) put Mexico’s 2026 growth at 1.5% and cut 2027 to 1.8% late on 12 October, Mexico City time.
- —This year Up from 1.2% in July; IMF staff had already given 1.5% on 2 October after their yearly review.
- —Next year Down to 1.8% from 1.9% in July; the same staff review had also pointed to 1.8%.
- —Why Exports, including goods tied to artificial intelligence (AI), and steadier investment, held back by trade uncertainty.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives 27.5% to year-on-year third-quarter growth of 2.5% to 3.0% (13 October, 3:48 a.m. ET).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its Mexico growth forecast for 2027 to 1.8%, from 1.9% in July. Its new World Economic Outlook, released in Bangkok late on Monday, 12 October, Mexico City time, puts 2026 growth at 1.5%, up from 1.2%.
For US readers, the forecast tracks one of the biggest trading partners of the United States. The IMF credits exports, especially to the US, for Mexico’s growth and expects trade uncertainty to keep holding it back.
What the IMF Changed in Its Mexico Growth Forecast
The IMF is a Washington-based institution that lends to governments in trouble and monitors member economies. Twice a year it publishes the World Economic Outlook, a forecast for most of the world.
The October edition came out in Bangkok, Thailand, host of this year’s IMF and World Bank annual meetings. El Economista, a Mexican business daily, reported the Mexico figures through its correspondent Yolanda Morales.
The Mexican news agency AMEXI and the Spanish agency EFE, carried by the site López-Dóriga Digital, report the same numbers. All three put the new Mexico growth forecast for 2026 at 0.3 percentage points above July.
Back in July, the IMF had cut Mexico’s 2026 forecast to just 1.2%, with 1.9% for 2027.
IMF staff had already given 1.5% and 1.8% on 2 October, at the end of their yearly review of Mexico’s economy. The World Economic Outlook now carries both numbers, and for 2027 that is a cut from July’s 1.9%.
Why Exports Carry Mexico
The report says growth will pick up modestly on exports, including supply chains for artificial intelligence (AI), and on investment that is steadying. It adds that trade and other uncertainties will keep restraining activity.
Analysts quoted by El Economista say Mexico has become a large and growing supplier of computer equipment for data centers. Such shipments could overtake exports of cars and car parts as early as this year, they add.
Gabriela Siller, head of economic and financial analysis at the Mexican bank Banco Base, told El Economista that imports from Taiwan have surged. She linked the jump to parts for computers assembled in Mexico and exported to the United States.
The report sees high trade uncertainty for Mexico and Canada, El Economista reports. It calls US tariffs a drag that has reshaped world trade.
The USMCA is the free-trade pact of the United States, Mexico and Canada. Its first joint review fell due in July, and President Claudia Sheinbaum says there is no deal yet.
How the Forecast Compares
The IMF’s Mexico growth forecast of 1.5% for this year matches the central forecast of Mexico’s Finance Ministry, El Economista and EFE report. Finance Secretary Édgar Amador Zamora leads the ministry, known as Hacienda.
For 2027 the ministry expects about 2%, a little more than the IMF. Private analysts polled by the bank Citi expect 1.4% for this year, El Economista reports.
The World Bank, the IMF’s sister lender, lifted its own Mexico forecast to 1.4% earlier in October. Mexico’s economy barely grew in 2025, El Economista and EFE note, so 1.5% would mark a pickup.
What It Means for You
For US investors in Mexican shares, bonds or the peso, the new Mexico growth forecast is mildly positive for this year. Next year looks a little weaker, and the IMF expects trade uncertainty to keep weighing on activity.
IMF staff said on 2 October that inflation had eased to near the target of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the central bank. They pointed to stable fuel prices and a strong peso, Uno TV reported.
For American visitors, the exchange rate matters more than any forecast. The peso stood at about 18.3 per US dollar late on 12 October.
For US firms producing in Mexico, the outlook rests on trade flowing without new barriers.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket is a platform where people bet real money on future events. By 13 October, 3:48 a.m. ET, its market on Mexico’s third-quarter growth had drawn about US$47,600 in bets.
It settles on the first estimate of growth against a year earlier from INEGI, Mexico’s national statistics agency. The market’s rules say that estimate is due on 30 October.
Bets on 2.5% to 3.0% stood at 27.5%, just ahead of 2.0% to 2.5% at 26.5%. Bets on 3.0% to 3.5% jumped 7.2 points in 24 hours to 23.4%.
A single quarter against a year earlier is not directly comparable with the IMF’s full-year Mexico growth forecast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The IMF’s detailed October tables for Mexico, including its inflation forecast, had not yet appeared on its website by early Tuesday, 13 October. The IMF also says it remains to be seen whether the AI investment boom lifts productivity in the long run.
INEGI’s first third-quarter estimate, expected at the end of October, will be the first hard test of the new Mexico growth forecast. How and when the USMCA review ends is also not yet known.
More: Mexico news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the IMF’s new Mexico growth forecast?
The IMF now expects Mexico’s economy to grow 1.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. In July it had forecast 1.2% and 1.9%.
How does the IMF compare with Mexico’s government?
The IMF’s 1.5% for 2026 matches the central forecast of Mexico’s Finance Ministry. For 2027 the ministry expects about 2%, slightly above the IMF’s 1.8%.
Why does Mexico’s growth matter to Americans?
Mexico is one of the biggest US trading partners. The IMF counts exports, especially to the US, among the main supports for Mexican growth.
Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook October 2026 page, 13 October 2026; International Monetary Fund, Mexico country page, 13 October 2026; El Economista (Yolanda Morales), 12 October 2026; AMEXI (Ivonne Martínez), 12 October 2026; López-Dóriga Digital (EFE), 13 October 2026; Uno TV, 2 October 2026; N+, 2 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief