Brazil’s 2023 inflation forecast rises, with stable economic outlook for 2024-2025
The latest Focus report from the Central Bank (BC) indicates a revised median projection for Brazil’s official inflation in 2023, moving from 4.84% to 4.90%.
The data was collected from economists’ predictions until the end of last week.
For 2024, the median estimate for the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) remains unchanged at 3.86%, and for 2025, it remains at 3.50%.
Regarding the basic interest rate (Selic), the projections stand at 11.75% by the end of 2023, 9.00% for 2024, and 8.50% in 2025.
The Central Bank’s inflation target for 2023 is 3.25%, with 3.00% set for both 2024 and 2025, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points in either direction.
As for Brazil’s economic growth in 2023, the market’s median projection stays at 2.29%.
For 2024, the growth expectation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been slightly adjusted from 1.30% to 1.33%, while it remains at 1.90% for 2025.
In currency terms, the median forecast for the dollar’s end-of-year value is revised from R$4.93 to R$4.95. Projections for 2024 remain at R$5.00, and for 2025, the estimate is steady at R$5.09.
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This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief