Copper Holds Firm as Tight Supply and Technical Momentum Drive Market

Copper prices opened the week near $5.13 per pound, according to TradingView charts published on June 30, 2025. The market shows strong resilience, with spot prices consolidating gains after a weekend of moderate trading and no major disruptions.

The daily chart reveals copper’s persistent upward trend, driven by a mix of supply constraints and speculative activity. Technical indicators confirm this momentum.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.42, just below the overbought threshold, signaling robust but not extreme buying pressure. The MACD indicator shows a clear bullish crossover, with its histogram expanding, reflecting ongoing upward momentum.

Bollinger Bands have widened, and the price currently rides the upper band, indicating heightened volatility and sustained buying interest. Short- and medium-term moving averages, including the 50-day and 100-day, continue to slope upward, supporting the prevailing bullish trend.

The four-hour chart supports this narrative but hints at short-term caution. The RSI on this timeframe ranges from 65.34 to 68.80, suggesting the market is near overbought territory.

The MACD remains positive, but its histogram is flattening, which may indicate a pause in momentum or a brief consolidation phase. Price action remains above all key moving averages, and the price continues to respect the support levels established earlier in June.

Fundamental factors reinforce the technical story. Inventories on major exchanges remain low, with LME stocks trending downward over the past quarter.

Physical supply remains tight, especially in the United States and Europe, as buyers continue to secure material ahead of anticipated trade policy changes.

In China, spot market premiums persist, but some resistance to high prices has emerged, particularly in the northern regions. Transaction volumes have softened in these areas, yet prices remain elevated due to ongoing supply chain constraints.

Macroeconomic conditions add another layer to the narrative. The global copper market faces mixed signals, with new mining projects increasing output but logistical bottlenecks and geopolitical tensions limiting the flow of refined copper.

Demand from the energy transition sector and infrastructure projects remains steady, but some end-users hesitate at current price levels. ETF flows reflect cautious optimism, with modest inflows into copper-focused funds, while overall volumes on futures markets remain robust.

The story behind the figures is one of a market caught between tight supply and hesitant demand, with technical momentum amplifying price moves. Traders watch closely for signs of a reversal, but for now, the bullish trend holds.

The next sessions will test whether copper can sustain these levels or if a technical pullback will finally materialize. The balance of fundamentals and technicals keeps the market on edge as the second half of 2025 begins.

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