Technical Indicators Signal Weak Momentum for Iron Ore Prices

Official sources and trading data confirm that the iron ore market delivered little surprise over the past 24 hours.

The SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures opened the morning of June 30, 2025, at $94.60 per ton, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.05% from the previous session.

This price aligns with recent spot and futures transactions, which have hovered between $93 and $96 per ton, as confirmed by both exchange data and physical market settlements.

Market participants observed a technical rebound in derivatives trading, following several days of consistent declines. Traders attributed this move to the stabilization of prices rather than any shift in underlying fundamentals.

A Beijing-based mill source described the rebound as technical, with no new drivers for either upside or downside movement. The physical market echoed this sentiment, with late June-loaded 62% Fe Pilbara Blend fines transacting at the June average index plus a modest premium.

Meanwhile, July cargoes shifted focus to 61% Fe grades. The technical outlook, based on the most commonly used indicators, remains cautious. The daily chart shows the price below all major moving averages, including the 50, 100, and 200-day lines.

The 200-day moving average at $101.64 forms a clear resistance, with immediate support at $93.76. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 34.93, indicating oversold conditions but not yet signaling a reversal.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, showing persistent bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands reveal prices hugging the lower band, suggesting ongoing selling pressure but also the possibility of a technical bounce if support holds.

The four-hour chart reveals a period of sideways consolidation after the recent drop, with resistance at $94.66 and support at $94.49. The RSI has rebounded to 54.02, while the MACD is flat, highlighting indecision among traders.

Volume has not shown any significant spikes, confirming that neither buyers nor sellers have seized control. Fundamentally, the market continues to grapple with stable but unremarkable Chinese steel demand.

Mills remain cautious, preferring lower-grade ores for cost reasons and limiting purchases of high-grade material. Port inventories in China remain ample, and supply from major producers like Rio Tinto and Vale has not wavered.

The macroeconomic backdrop adds little excitement: Chinese GDP growth remains steady but unspectacular, and the US dollar’s strength keeps iron ore relatively expensive for non-dollar buyers.

Over the past day, no major ETF inflows or outflows have been reported in iron ore markets. Physical trading volumes remain moderate, with no evidence of speculative excess or panic-driven selling.

The market’s current state reflects a wait-and-see approach, with participants watching for either a supply disruption or a demand pickup to break the stalemate.

In summary, the iron ore market remains range-bound, with technical and fundamental factors both pointing to a cautious stance. The next decisive move will likely require a clear catalyst, either from Chinese industrial policy or unexpected supply news.

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