Oil Markets Hold Steady as Geopolitical Risks Fade and OPEC+ Eyes Output Hike

Brent crude traded at $65.71 early Monday, showing little movement through the weekend as the market paused after last week’s sharp correction.

Official exchange data and price feeds confirm that both Brent and WTI remained flat to slightly positive, with no significant volatility or directional change since Friday.

The market’s calm follows a dramatic month. Brent surged above $80 in mid-June after Israel targeted Iranian nuclear sites, but prices collapsed to current levels after a ceasefire announcement.

This truce, confirmed by government and market sources, removed the geopolitical risk premium that had inflated prices. Analysts note that with the risk of Middle East supply disruptions now much lower, traders have shifted focus back to supply and demand fundamentals.

OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly hike. Four official delegates confirmed this move, which will be formalized at the July 6 meeting.

This expected supply boost weighs on sentiment, especially as global demand remains uncertain. China’s factory activity contracted for a third straight month, according to official purchasing manager indices, signaling weaker demand from the world’s largest oil importer.

In the United States, the oil rig count dropped by six last week to 432, the lowest since October 2021, according to Baker Hughes. This signals potential softness in future U.S. output, but it has not been enough to offset concerns about rising OPEC+ supply and sluggish demand.

Brent and WTI Crude Oil in Consolidation Amid Bearish Technicals

Technical analysis of the daily and four-hour charts for Brent and WTI shows a market in consolidation. On the daily chart, Brent sits below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, with the MACD negative and widening, and the RSI at 45.23, indicating weak momentum but not oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands show prices near the lower band, reflecting subdued volatility and a lack of strong buying interest. The Ichimoku Cloud confirms a bearish structure, with price action below the cloud.

The four-hour charts for both Brent and WTI show tight consolidation just above key support levels. Brent holds above $65.27, while WTI trades near $62.77. Both remain below their 50-period exponential moving averages.

The MACD is negative but shows signs of bottoming, and the RSI readings—38.58 for Brent and 39.64 for WTI—are close to oversold, suggesting limited downside for now.

Volumes have been muted, and no significant inflows or outflows have been reported in major oil ETFs. The market appears to be waiting for the OPEC+ meeting and further economic data from China before making its next move.

The real story is a market that has stripped out its risk premium and now sits in a holding pattern. With supply set to rise and demand signals weak, oil prices remain under pressure, but technicals suggest further sharp declines are unlikely unless new data shifts the balance.

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