Brazil’s São Paulo social isolation rate returns to pre-quarantine (March 2020) levels

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – With vaccination advancing in the state of São Paulo, residents have been feeling more at ease to retake activities previously forbidden. The result of the relaxation is that compliance with social isolation is the same as before quarantine began.

The rate was even lower in São Paulo city. It reached 36% on Friday, while on March 17 2020 it stood at 38%.

The state government announced a quarantine on March 21 last year which came into force on March 24, initially for 15 days. The measure forced the closure of trade, except for essential food services, supplies, health, banking, cleaning, and security services.

Since then, a system was created to monitor people’s adherence to social isolation. Control is done by the São Paulo Intelligent Monitoring System through an agreement with phone operators, who provide the state with aggregated and anonymous data on physical displacement in São Paulo’s municipalities.

With about 84% of vaccines administered in the state of São Paulo, relaxation has been greater. However, little more than 25% of the São Paulo population has been fully vaccinated. In addition to the return to school, other measures have created greater flexibility and allowed the population to circulate more.

Currently, the state is in the São Paulo Plan’s transition phase for Covid-19 control. As a result, opening hours have been extended from 6 AM to midnight for all businesses, and stores may operate at up to 80% capacity.

From August 17, one day after the completion of partial vaccination of the state’s adult population is planned, the limitation on opening hours and people will no longer apply.

Only concerts with a standing audience, soccer games with fans and dance floors will still be banned until November 1. According to the government, by that date all events should be allowed in the state, since 90% of adults are expected to have been fully immunized.

According to epidemiologist Eliseu Alves Waldman, professor at the School of Public Health at USP (University of São Paulo), caution should be taken with the spread of the virus, which he says is still high despite the drop in the number of cases and deaths.

“On the one hand you need to open the economy, because indicators are improving such as the number of deaths and hospitalizations. But there is a very important indicator which is the high circulation of the virus,” he says. “The opening must be done progressively, strengthening surveillance and analyzing changes in the situation almost on a daily basis,” he says.

“In countries where there is a greater lack of control, with a higher circulation, there is an increased probability of having a more effective variation of the virus, with a greater capacity for transmission and increased potential for causing severe forms,” the epidemiologist says.

Alert

The increased flow on the streets is raising concerns. Without herd immunity, estimated at 80% of the population fully vaccinated, new variants of the disease may emerge, particularly with only one vaccine dose administered as its efficacy in preventing transmission is lower than with the full immunization. The spread of the Delta variant is also a warning.

“The first dose of the vaccine provides partial protection. It is fundamental that people take both doses to achieve maximum protection and for us to control variants of concern,” infectologist Leonardo Weissmann said.

The capital’s Municipal Health Secretariat said that the current situation in the city is an alert for a potential increase in the number of suspected cases reported. “The identification of cases of the Delta variant in the city is another factor,” the Secretariat said, which last week reported 50 identified cases of people with the new strain in all of the city’s regions.

“One thing is certain, vaccines don’t fully protect against infection, they protect against severity. This means that you may not have a very serious disease, but you are still at risk of getting it,” says infectious disease specialist Marcos Boulos, part of the Contingency Center assisting the João Doria (PSDB) government in deciding to relax the economy.

And with the virus circulating new strains can emerge. “The organism [virus] with the best ability to overpower our immune system will always prevail. If it can bypass our immune system, the better for it. Only the virus that manages to infect our cells and transmit itself to other individuals will persist,” explains Camila Sacchelli Ramos, professor of infectious and parasitic diseases at Mackenzie Presbyterian University.

“Where do the new variants emerge? Inside our body. It’s when the virus is multiplying. So the more people are infected, whether symptomatic or not, the greater the number of multiplications, the greater the chance that in one of these multiplications, a mutant, will emerge with a new capacity, which may not be covered by vaccines,” she added.

Answer

Asked about the drop in adherence to isolation, the State Department of Economic Development said it is working with complete responsibility and transparency in the fight and control of the coronavirus, based on science to ensure the conscious, gradual, and fully safe resumption of economic activities for society. It further says that it will maintain the mandatory use of masks and distancing.

The capital’s Municipal Health Secretariat says that the Acute Transmissible Diseases Center is monitoring the epidemiological situation on a daily basis to determine the potential impact of the Delta variant on the behavior of suspected and confirmed cases.