Brazilian economy grew 0.1% in November – FGV’s GDP monitor

Economic activity increased by 0.1% in November compared to the previous month, as indicated by the FGV’S GDP Monitor, released today (17) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Ibre/FGV).

Compared to the same month of 2021, GDP growth (sum of goods and services produced in the country) stood at 2%.

Compared to the moving quarter ended in November 2022, the economy grew by 2.6%.

According to the survey, the estimate in monetary terms is that the accumulated GDP until November 2022, in current values, is R$8,990,281 trillion.

The research coordinator, Juliana Trece, informed that the 0.1% growth of the economy in November is explained by the positive performance of agriculture and industry.

In addition, the services sector, which has shown a deceleration trend since the second semester, presented retraction in November, after 6 consecutive months of positive rates.

“It is important to highlight the performance of this sector, as it has been responsible for around 80% of GDP growth in 2022. High interest rates combined with the high level of household debt contributed to this slowdown in services”, she commented.

FAMILIES

Household consumption rose 4.4% in the moving quarter ended in November, and in this analysis, consumption of services remains the main driver of growth, albeit at a lower level than previously observed.

According to the survey, the deceleration in the pace of growth appeared in all components of consumption, although only the consumption of semi-durable products had, in fact, retraction in the quarter, of 9.6%.

CAPITAL FORMATION

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), which is investment capacity, increased by 5.6% in the moving quarter from September to November.

Although all GFCF segments have grown, the main factor responsible for the performance was machinery and equipment, with a contribution of around 70%.

“As in the four previous moving quarters, the strong growth of imported machinery and equipment explains the evolution of the machinery and equipment segment”, pointed out the survey.

EXPORT

In the same moving quarter, exports of goods and services increased by 15.1% and all segments contributed positively to the performance.

The main highlight was the export of agricultural products, which accounted for approximately 30% of total export growth.

IMPORT

Imports of goods and services had a gain of 6.5% between September and November.

Even though it is positive, the result indicates a reduction in the pace of growth that had been observed since mid-2022.

The main cause of the slowdown is the performance of imports of intermediate goods, which grew from 9.4% in the moving quarter of August to October, to 3.7%, in the period ended in November.

INVESTMENT RATE

The average monthly investment rate since January 2000 is 18%, but since January 2015 it has dropped to 16.6%.

However, the investment rate in November 2022 reached 19.9%, in the series at current values.

“This result shows an investment rate above the average monthly investment rate considering the period since 2000 and above the average investment rate considering the period since the 1st quarter of 2015”, shows the research.

With information from Gazeta Brasil