Bolsonaro’s influence will be the new “unknown” in Brazilian politics

Jair Bolsonaro’s defeat in Brazil’s runoff election poses an “unknown” about the profile the biggest opposition political leader will adopt, Argentine political scientist Julio Burdman told Sputnik.

After a close runoff election in Brazil, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will return to the Planalto Palace for the third time, although leading a divided society and solid support for the current president, Jair Bolsonaro.

For the Argentine political scientist Julio Burdman, Bolsonaro’s defeat in Brazil’s runoff elections means an “unknown” about the profile that will be adopted by the greatest political leader of the opposition who gathered 58.2 million votes from Brazilians (49.1%) against 60.3 million (50.9%) achieved by the candidate of the Workers’ Party (PT, left).

Burdman considers it “unknown what Bolsonarism will be like without Bolsonaro” after these tense elections.

The analyst did not rule out protests over the election results but does not believe they will constitute an “obstacle to the transition”.

The results of the October 30 runoff revealed that one state and 248 cities, which had shown their sympathy for Lula da Silva in the first round, changed their vote and leaned in favor of Bolsonarismo.

The main revelation was in the Brazilian municipality of Grupiara, in Minas Gerais. Bolsonaro went from 46% of the votes in the first round to 59.4% in the runoff.

Despite the triumph, Lula da Silva did not manage to reverse the results in those cities where Bolsonarism won on October 2.

In addition, Bolsonarism won in the state of São Paulo, considered the country’s financial center and of great importance for Latin America.

This victory is not only strategic but historical since the new administration of Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas would break with the leadership of the center-left Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) in São Paulo, which has been in place since 1994.

The narrow margin between the candidates also meant that the election was the most hotly contested since the return of democracy in the country in 1985, surpassing even the 2014 elections in which former President Dilma Roussef (2011-2016) emerged victorious with 51.6% against the opposition Aécio Neves who gathered 48.3% of the votes.

BRAZILIAN POLITICS AFTER BOLSONARO

According to Burdman, “Bolsonaro had armed a powerful current of opinion” in the country and “managed to drag along an important part of the conservative parties, such as the Republican Party, the Liberal Party and the Uniao Party that forms the merger between the Democrats and the Social Liberal Party”.

However, for the specialist, “it is worth asking whether the Bolsonarist parties, their legislators, and their state leaders will continue to be Bolsonarist once Bolsonaro is no longer in office”.

The Argentine considered that the loyalty shown by the Brazilian electorate could remain firm, so legislators would have to act accordingly, even though there is also the possibility that “a Brazilian political culture that is very negotiating” will prevail.

In Burdman’s opinion, until Bolsonaro, there was “a political culture that absorbed the opposition parties within this scheme of permanent negotiation in Congress”. At the same time, Bolsonaro defends a “more intransigent” type of coalition, which raises questions.

Asked about Bolsonaro’s influence at the regional level, Burdmam commented that his international space “is somewhat restricted to the radical right” to figures such as Congressman Javier Milei in Argentina or the former Chilean presidential candidate José Antonio Kast.

“Parties of the South American center-right such as ‘Juntos por el Cambio’ in Argentina, the alliance between whites and colorados in Uruguay, the traditional center-right in Chile, are not referenced in Bolsonaro,” said Burdman and added that to this is added that the region at present “is more shifted towards the center-left parties”.

THE SILENCE OF DEFEAT

Bolsonaro’s strong criticisms and insinuations about the electoral system and the non-recognition of his defeat immediately make Brazilians and the international community attentive to the transition process between the two governments.

The expert considered a movement difficult, similar to what happened in the US presidential elections in 2020, when the then-President Donald Trump (2017-2021) resisted recognizing his electoral defeat against Democrat Joe Biden because “the institutions in Brazil would not bow to an attempt to question” the recent electoral results.

Burdman concluded there is “the possibility of some kind of social mobilization of some sector of the population outraged against Lula da Silva and supporting Bolsonaro,” which could have some impact, albeit minor.

On October 31, transport workers and other demonstrators carried out at least 60 road blockades in 12 states in protest against da Silva’s victory.

With information from Sputnik