Brazil Court Sets Rules on Campaign Channels
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Sunday, 18 October, 5:58 a.m. ET · Source: Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE)
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Friday 16 October, the electoral court (TSE) unanimously approved rules on when a supporters’ messaging channel counts as part of a campaign.
- The trigger Conflicting rulings on “Exército do Lula”, a WhatsApp channel run by federal deputy André Janones, pushed the court to set clear criteria.
- Meta order On Thursday 15 October, Judge Marco Aurélio Bellizze ordered Meta to treat both candidates equally, under a fine of R$500,000 (about US$99,000) a day.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 81% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 19.5% (18 October, 5:54 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 81% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 20% and 21%), as of 18 October, 6:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The court has not said how it will treat other supporter channels, and campaigns can still challenge individual cases.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · All election stories
Brazil’s electoral court entered the last week before the Brazil election 2026 runoff with new rules for online campaigning. On Friday 16 October, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) unanimously approved a resolution on when a supporters’ channel is legally linked to a campaign.
The vote on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, so online disputes between the two campaigns matter beyond Brazil. The court is the body that supervises the election and rules on campaign conduct, including on social media and messaging apps.
What the New Campaign Channel Rules Say
The resolution was drafted by Judge André Mendonça and sets out objective signs that a channel is tied to a candidacy, CNN Brasil reported. They include the use of campaign money or material resources, technical support from the campaign, official promotion of the channel and campaign guidance on what it publishes.
The signs are not cumulative, and one objectively verifiable element can be enough, CNN Brasil said. A channel linked to a campaign must be registered with the electoral authorities and follow the propaganda rules for its platform.
Spontaneous support from individual voters is not enough on its own to show a link, according to ICL Notícias. The aim is to separate organised campaign operations from ordinary political speech.
Why the Court Acted After Conflicting Rulings
The resolution followed a dispute over “Exército do Lula”, a WhatsApp channel administered by federal deputy André Janones of the Rede party, Gazeta do Paraná reported. Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign had complained to the court that the channel spread disinformation.
Two TSE judges then issued opposite decisions on whether the channel could stay online, the same outlet said. On Sunday 11 October, the court’s president, Kassio Nunes Marques, suspended it, and the electoral ombudsman, Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva, reversed that the same day for lack of evidence.
Nunes Marques suspended it again on Tuesday 13 October unless it was registered, and the channel was back online around 14 October, according to Folha de Pernambuco.
Meta Ordered to Treat Both Candidates Equally
A day earlier, on Thursday 15 October, Judge Marco Aurélio Bellizze ordered Meta, the owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, not to restrict the reach of presidential candidates unequally, Bahia Notícias reported. The order carries a fine of R$500,000 (about US$99,000 at 5.07 reais per dollar) for each day of non-compliance.
Lula’s campaign had told the court that Meta’s artificial intelligence tool refused to generate images of the president while accepting requests about Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the same report. The judge found signs of a failure in Meta’s control system but said the evidence did not show deliberate or systematic misconduct.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazil’s court is now setting the online ground rules for a vote that moves Brazilian stocks, the real and trade ties with Washington. US-listed Brazilian shares can swing on court rulings as much as on polls in the final days.
The Meta order also shows a foreign platform facing daily fines from a Brazilian court during an election. Expect more rulings of this kind before 25 October, and read each as a decision on one case rather than a signal about the outcome.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 81.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 19.5% (18 October, 5:54 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$187 million in total bets, and our Brazil election odds page tracks them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 80.8% · Lula 19.5% (US$187 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 18 October, 6:20 am ET (11:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The court has not said whether other supporter channels will be reviewed or whether the new criteria will be applied to channels already online. It is also not known how Meta will respond to the order or whether the fine will ever be enforced.
Neither ruling measures any effect on voters, and polls remain the guide to the race. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists every survey.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What new rules did Brazil’s electoral court approve?
On Friday 16 October, the TSE unanimously approved criteria for when a supporters’ messaging channel counts as part of a campaign. One objectively verifiable sign, such as campaign funding or guidance, can be enough.
Why did the court act now?
Judges had issued conflicting rulings on the WhatsApp channel “Exército do Lula”. The runoff is on Sunday 25 October, so the court wanted clear rules for the final week.
What did the court order Meta to do?
On 15 October, Judge Marco Aurélio Bellizze ordered Meta not to restrict presidential candidates’ reach unequally. Non-compliance carries a fine of R$500,000 (about US$99,000) a day.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The candidates are President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Sources: CNN Brasil, 16 October 2026; Gazeta do Paraná, 17 October 2026; ICL Notícias, October 2026; Bahia Notícias, 15 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief