Brazil may return to ‘normal life’ in October – UBS projection

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – If the expected vaccination rate against the coronavirus is maintained, Brazil may reach some kind of normality as early as October and extend the economic reopening. The projection is from analysts of Swiss bank UBS, in a report released to clients this week.

The estimate was made based on hospitalization data, expected vaccination for the coming months and the Brazilian age pyramid. According to the report, Brazil is expected to succeed in drastically reducing infections and severe cases of Covid-19 once the population aged 30 and older is immunized – which analysts expect may happen by October, based on the doses announced by the government.

This immunized share would be lower than the 70% or more that experts assess as ideal to achieve some kind of “herd immunity.” In order for Brazil to reach 70% of its population immunized, it would also have to vaccinate adults aged 20 and older.

However, the UBS report estimates that it may be possible to reach what it calls “effective herd immunity” once Brazil has vaccinated a much smaller share of the population, only the group aged 30 and older, or 56% of the population.

Although it represents a little more than half of the population, the group aged 30 and older is accountable for over 95% of deaths, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. It is also known that Covid-19 has been shown to be less lethal in adolescents and children.

“Thus, we name the achievement of immunity in this [30-year-old] group and in the population over 60 as ‘effective immunity’, allowing economic activity to normalize,” write economists Alexandre de Azara and Fabio Ramos, who sign the report.

So far, Brazil has vaccinated at least 17% of the population with one dose, and just over 8.5% with the second dose. This group comprises mainly seniors over 70 years of age and health professionals. There were 54 million doses administered, according to the media outlet consortium’s calculations based on the data provided by the states up to Monday, May 10.

What is required to get there?

About 16 million doses were administered monthly in Brazil in March and April. But to estimate that all adults aged 30 will be vaccinated by October, the UBS projects a significant increase in this number.

The projection is based mainly on AstraZeneca vaccine deliveries, currently produced by the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, in addition to a portion sent by the Covax international consortium. The Coronavac immunizer accounts for almost 8 out of every 10 doses distributed in Brazil through late April.

According to UBS estimates, AstraZeneca’s vaccine should overtake the Coronavac and become the most widely administered in Brazil as early as May. The projections also include the arrival of doses bought by the federal government from Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson – the latter, only from October.

The calculation does not include future doses of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine or the Indian Covaxin, which still need to be approved by the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (ANVISA).

On the other hand, to meet the projection for the coming months, Brazil will have to overcome challenges in the purchase of the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), currently coming from China. The delay in API delivery has slowed down the production of vaccines in Brazil.

On the other hand, the national production of API is likely to be delayed until the end of the year: Fiocruz has promised the first doses for August, but deferred the date to September and now experts are projecting the month of October for delivery to begin. The Butantan Institute is also building a plant to produce the raw material, which should only start operating next year.

Source: Exame