Brazil’s Six Governor Runoffs Explained

BRAZIL · ELECTIONS 2026 · GOVERNOR RUNOFFS

Five Brazilian states and the Federal District elect their governors in runoffs on Sunday 25 October 2026, on the same ballot as the presidential race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The six contests are in Acre, Amazonas, Espírito Santo, Rio Grande do Norte, Tocantins and the Federal District, home of the capital, Brasília.

Rio de Janeiro will not vote again, because its electoral court confirmed Douglas Ruas of the conservative Liberal Party (PL) as the outright winner on 10 October. Governors run state police, schools, hospitals and budgets, so each result shapes how much local support the next president can count on.

How Brazil’s Governor Runoffs Work

A candidate wins outright with more than half of the valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots, so where nobody cleared that bar on 4 October the top two meet again. Our runoff guide explains the presidential race, and our results start-time page shows when the count begins in your time zone.

Federal District: Celina Leão vs Leandro Grass

Governor Celina Leão of the Progressistas (PP), a centre-right party from the bloc of deal-making parties known as the Centrão, took 49.93% of valid votes, 0.07 points short of outright victory. Leandro Grass of Lula’s left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) took 34.47%.

The latest poll registered with the electoral court, by the Brazilian pollster Real Time Big Data on 9–13 October (DF-01170/2026), gives Leão 60% of valid votes to 40% for Grass. Quaest, a polling firm working for TV Globo, Brazil’s largest broadcaster, found 53% to 33% among all voters on 8–11 October (DF-08737/2026).

The race mirrors the national contest: Leão campaigns for Flávio, while Lula walked with Grass through Ceilândia, the district’s most populous area, on 9 October. Flávio won the Federal District’s presidential vote in round one with 51.31% to Lula’s 38.11%.

Acre: Mailza Assis vs Alan Rick

Governor Mailza Assis, also of the PP, took 49.76% in this Amazon state on the borders with Peru and Bolivia. Senator Alan Rick of the Republicanos, a conservative party with a strong evangelical base, took 32.27%.

Quaest’s poll of 9–12 October (AC-05379/2026) puts Assis on 49% and Rick on 32% among all voters, with 10% undecided. That is almost exactly the first-round gap of 17.5 points.

Both finalists come from parties on the right, and Assis’s PP and its centre-right partner União Brasil declared for Flávio at national level on 6 October. Flávio took 64.56% of Acre’s presidential vote in round one.

Amazonas: Omar Aziz vs Maria do Carmo

Senator Omar Aziz of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), a centrist party led by Gilberto Kassab, took 40.63% in Brazil’s largest state by area. Professora Maria do Carmo of Flávio’s conservative Liberal Party (PL) took 24.49%.

Quaest (9–12 October, AM-09760/2026) gives Aziz 51% and Maria do Carmo 37% among all voters. Roberto Cidade of União Brasil finished third with 21.91%, and his voters are the largest pool still in play.

Aziz chaired the 2021 Senate inquiry into the Bolsonaro government’s handling of Covid-19, while his PSD is officially neutral in the presidential race. Lula won Amazonas narrowly in round one, with 48.23% to Flávio’s 45.00%.

Espírito Santo: Lorenzo Pazolini vs Ricardo Ferraço

Lorenzo Pazolini, a former mayor of the state capital, Vitória, took 49.65% for the Republicanos, 0.35 points short of victory. Governor Ricardo Ferraço of the centrist Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) took 34.06%.

We found no runoff poll for Espírito Santo published since the first round by the afternoon of 14 October. Quaest interviewed 1,098 voters on 10–13 October for TV Gazeta, the local Globo affiliate, and its results were due later that day.

Pazolini’s running mate, Eliane Leal, comes from Flávio’s PL, and even every vote of the PT’s Helder Salomão, third with 15.32%, would lift Ferraço only to 49.38% on first-round numbers. Flávio carried the state in round one with 54.78% to Lula’s 37.76%.

Rio Grande do Norte: Allyson Bezerra vs Cadu de Lula

This north-eastern state has the tightest race by share of the vote: Allyson Bezerra of União Brasil took 36.94%, only 15,509 votes ahead of the PT’s Carlos Eduardo Xavier on 36.16%. Xavier, a former state finance secretary, appears on the ballot as Cadu de Lula, or Lula’s Cadu.

Quaest (9–12 October, RN-03210/2026) has Allyson on 45% and Cadu on 42% among all voters, inside its three-point margin of error. Álvaro Dias of the PL, a former mayor of the state capital, Natal, came third with 26.71% and has stayed neutral in the governor runoff.

Allyson has said he will back neither presidential candidate, so that he can work with whoever wins. Lula took 59.75% of the state’s presidential vote in round one, his best result among the six runoff states.

Tocantins: Professora Dorinha vs Vicentinho Júnior

Senator Professora Dorinha of União Brasil took 45.52% in this northern state, 13,412 votes ahead of federal deputy Vicentinho Júnior of the centre-right Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) on 43.94%. Laurez Moreira of the PSD finished third with 8.24%.

Directa Pesquisas, a smaller polling firm, gives Dorinha 52.8% of valid votes to 47.2% for Vicentinho in a survey on 6–9 October (TO-03128/2026). A Quaest survey for TV Anhanguera, a Globo affiliate, registered as TO-03829/2026 with fieldwork on 10–13 October, was due for release on 14 October.

Both finalists come from the centre-right, and Dorinha’s União Brasil declared for Flávio at national level on 6 October. Flávio won Tocantins in round one with 50.44% to Lula’s 43.42%.

Why Rio de Janeiro Has No Runoff

Rio was set for a seventh runoff until the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) voided the 274,411 votes of former governor Anthony Garotinho, whose candidacy had been rejected, on 8 October. Rio’s regional electoral court (TRE-RJ) retallied on 10 October and confirmed Douglas Ruas of the PL elected with 50.88% of valid votes, against 44.16% for Eduardo Paes of the PSD, a former mayor of Rio de Janeiro city.

What It Means for US Readers

For investors, the governor races matter less than the presidential vote on the same ballot, but they show where each camp will hold local power from January. Visitors should expect campaign events in the six states and busy roads on election Sunday, and our governors map covers the races decided on 4 October.

What Is Not Known

Espírito Santo has no runoff poll published since the first round, and Tocantins has only one, from a smaller pollster. Quaest results for both states were due on 14 October, after this article was written.

Turnout is the other unknown, since 21.08% of registered voters nationwide stayed home on 4 October, the highest rate for a general-election first round since 1998. In close races such as Rio Grande do Norte and Tocantins, a small change in who votes can outweigh the first-round gap.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket runs thin winner markets on all six races, with US$29,000 to US$70,000 traded on each, and at 11:28 a.m. ET on 14 October it gave Leão 99.1%, Assis 98.4%, Pazolini 94.5%, Aziz 91.5% and Allyson 75.5%. Tocantins is the exception, with Vicentinho Júnior priced at 79.5% although he trailed in the first round and in the only poll since.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which Brazilian states have governor runoffs on 25 October 2026?

Acre, Amazonas, Espírito Santo, Rio Grande do Norte, Tocantins and the Federal District hold governor runoffs on Sunday 25 October 2026. Rio de Janeiro dropped off the list after its electoral court confirmed Douglas Ruas as the first-round winner on 10 October.

Why is there no governor runoff in Rio de Janeiro?

Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court voided the 274,411 votes of Anthony Garotinho, whose candidacy had been rejected, on 8 October. Without them, Douglas Ruas of the Liberal Party reached 50.88% of valid votes, enough to win outright.

Which governor runoff is the closest?

Rio Grande do Norte is the closest by share of the vote, after Allyson Bezerra of União Brasil finished 0.78 points, or 15,509 votes, ahead of Cadu de Lula of the Workers’ Party (PT) in round one. Quaest’s poll of 9–12 October has them on 45% and 42% among all voters.

When do Brazil’s new governors take office?

They take office on 6 January 2027, under a 2021 constitutional amendment that moved the date from 1 January. The new president is sworn in a day earlier, on 5 January.

Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), official first-round results for governor and president, 4–10 October 2026; TRE-RJ retally of 10 October, via Diário de Pernambuco; Quaest and Real Time Big Data runoff polls, via Gazeta do Povo; Directa Pesquisas, via Jornal Opção; Agora RN; Tribuna do Norte; O Hoje; Poder360; Revista Fórum; Diário Tocantinense; Agência Brasil; Constitutional Amendment 111/2021; Polymarket and Kalshi prices read by The Rio Times on 14 October.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error